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SEMrush Holdings, Inc. (SEMR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: premium subscriptions.

SEMrush is an online visibility management SaaS platform offering SEO, paid advertising, social media, local marketing, and content marketing tools for businesses globally. Revenue is primarily from premium subscriptions; a pending acquisition by Adobe at $12 per share was... Read more

$12.00-1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#86 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $11.96Target $11.77(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$12.00+0.0%3 analysts
Range unavailable (3 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: premium subscriptions. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: premium subscriptions
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)22.0
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA-117.6
Profit Mgn-4.3%
ROE-7.0%
Rev Growth14.6%
Beta1.50
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

IV88%elevated
Max Pain$3-79.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductpremium subscriptions
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive, and expect to continue to derive, substantially all of our revenue and cash flows from our paying customers with premium subscriptions'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings in 6 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.2
Value Rank
4.6
Growth Rank
4.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.5
Support Resistance
1.2
52w Position
10.0
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.93Resistance $12.01

Price Targets

$12
$12
A.Upside-1.9%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SEMR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: premium subscriptions. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $11.96. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the SEMR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.77 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $11.96. Stop-loss: $11.96.

What are the risks of investing in SEMR?

Concentration risk — Product: premium subscriptions; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.1% away).

Is SEMR overvalued or undervalued?

SEMrush Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 22.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SEMR?

10 analysts cover SEMR with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $12.

What does SEMrush Holdings, Inc. do?SEMrush is an online visibility management SaaS platform offering SEO, paid advertising, social media, local marketing,...

SEMrush is an online visibility management SaaS platform offering SEO, paid advertising, social media, local marketing, and content marketing tools for businesses globally. Revenue is primarily from premium subscriptions; a pending acquisition by Adobe at $12 per share was approved by stockholders on February 3, 2026.

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