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SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.13: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.75; Below-average business quality.

SailPoint provides enterprise identity security software, available as SaaS (Identity Security Cloud) or on-premise (IdentityIQ), serving large enterprises globally. Revenue grew from $699.6M to $1.1B over two fiscal years, primarily from 3-year subscription contracts billed... Read more

$11.13+53.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#50 of 80 Software - Infrastructure
Stop $10.33Target $17.08(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$18.98+70.5%23 analysts
$17.08our TP
$11.13price
$18.98mean
$28

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.13: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)29.9
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA-63.9
Profit Mgn-25.2%
ROE-42.9%
Rev Growth22.7%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.75bearish
IV90%elevated
Max Pain$8-32.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 6.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
0.9
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
5.5
Debt Equity
8.9
High short interest justified: 26%Elevated put/call: 2.75High IV: 90%Above max pain $8

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Unprofitable operations — net margin -25.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
8.9
Fcf Quality
9.1
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 28%, FCF yield 4.6%)No competitive moat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings History
5.6
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.30Resistance $13.48

Price Targets

$10
$17
A.Upside+53.5%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-10 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAIL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.13: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $10.33. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAIL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.08 (+53.8% upside). Prior stop was $10.33. Stop-loss: $10.33.

What are the risks of investing in SAIL?

Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is SAIL overvalued or undervalued?

SailPoint, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 29.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAIL?

29 analysts cover SAIL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does SailPoint, Inc. do?SailPoint provides enterprise identity security software, available as SaaS (Identity Security Cloud) or on-premise...

SailPoint provides enterprise identity security software, available as SaaS (Identity Security Cloud) or on-premise (IdentityIQ), serving large enterprises globally. Revenue grew from $699.6M to $1.1B over two fiscal years, primarily from 3-year subscription contracts billed annually.

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