SailPoint's 22% revenue growth, 29% free cash flow margin, and Rule of 40 score of 50 establish it as a financially sound identity security platform, but a death cross with price well below the 200-day moving average and 18% short interest create a challenging technical environment for near-term gains.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Growth 22 Percent→Stable
- Fcf Margin Rule Of 40→Stable
- Death Cross Technical Block↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026· older than 90 days
SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.72: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 31%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality.
SailPoint delivers identity security through a cloud SaaS platform (Identity Security Cloud) and a customer-hosted solution (IdentityIQ) for large enterprises and governments in more than 65 countries. Revenue grew from $699.6 million to $1.1 billion between fiscal years ended... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.72: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 31%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About SailPoint, Inc.
About SailPoint, Inc.
SailPoint's revenue grew from $699.6 million in the fiscal year ended January 31, 2024, to $1.1 billion in the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026, with 35% of the latter derived from outside the United States across more than 65 countries. The platform served approximately 3,235 customer organizations globally as of January 31, 2026, up from over 2,760 two years prior, employing 3,229 people across 24 countries.
SailPoint generates subscription revenue through two delivery models: Identity Security Cloud, a multi-tenant SaaS platform with ratable revenue recognition over multi-year contracts, and IdentityIQ, a customer-hosted solution for organizations with data-localization requirements. Contracts typically span three years with annual billing upfront. Customers are acquired directly and through a channel partner network of system integrators, value-added resellers, technology partners, and managed service providers; expansion within accounts via upselling suite upgrades and modules — including Data Access Security, Machine Identity Security, and Non-Employee Risk Management — is central to the growth motion. Technology alliances with Amazon Web Services, Proofpoint, SAP, and ServiceNow extend platform reach within customer IT environments. The 10-K identifies IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle as competitors that embed identity capabilities within broader enterprise software portfolios, alongside identity-focused providers Palo Alto Networks (CyberArk), Okta, and One Identity.
Show full overview
The competitive pressure from larger platform vendors is explicit in the 10-K: IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle are noted as having greater resources and existing customer relationships, with customers potentially preferring to consolidate onto existing supplier relationships regardless of product differentiation. A second risk dimension is AI-driven new entrants: the 10-K notes that development cycles for competitors using AI and agentic AI technologies may be more condensed than SailPoint's, accelerating competitive product availability. The company estimates over 60% of organizations in its target market still rely on fragmented or largely manual identity processes, representing the addressable opportunity and the adoption friction simultaneously.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From SailPoint, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — SailPoint, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cybersecurity Stocks Drop After Hours: Here's Why — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS SailPoint Tops Earnings Estimates. Wall Street Not Buying How It’s ‘Redefining Security’ for the AI Age. - barrons.com — barrons.com Sep 9, 2026 positive
- NEWS SailPoint Tops Earnings Estimates. Wall Street Not Buying How It’s ‘Redefining Security’ for the AI Age. - Barron's — Barron's Sep 9, 2026 positive
- NEWS SailPoint Releases Q2 2027 Financial Results - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet Sep 9, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Dear SailPoint Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for September 9 - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Sep 9, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicoutside United States35%10-K Item 1: 'we generated 35% and 32%, respectively, of our revenue from outside of the United States'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Volatile — 6.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.72: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 31%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $18.34. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $19.77 (+0.2% upside). Prior stop was $18.34. Stop-loss: $18.34.
Target reached (0.2% upside); Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0).
SailPoint, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 48.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
34 analysts rate SAIL, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 26 analysts publish price targets averaging $22.
What does SailPoint, Inc. do?SailPoint delivers identity security through a cloud SaaS platform (Identity Security Cloud) and a customer-hosted...
SailPoint delivers identity security through a cloud SaaS platform (Identity Security Cloud) and a customer-hosted solution (IdentityIQ) for large enterprises and governments in more than 65 countries. Revenue grew from $699.6 million to $1.1 billion between fiscal years ended January 31, 2024 and January 31, 2026, with 3,235 customers and 3,229 employees as of January 31, 2026.