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SAILSailPoint, Inc.Hold5.9·$14.53+2.25%
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SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.53, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

SailPoint delivers identity security through a cloud SaaS platform (Identity Security Cloud) and a customer-hosted solution (IdentityIQ) for large enterprises and governments in more than 65 countries. Revenue grew from $699.6 million to $1.1 billion between fiscal years ended... Read more

$14.53+22.0% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#27 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.00%
Stop $13.48Target $17.19(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$19.10+31.5%24 analysts
$17.19our TP
$14.53price
$19.10mean
$10
$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.53, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About SailPoint, Inc.

About SailPoint, Inc.

SailPoint's revenue grew from $699.6 million in the fiscal year ended January 31, 2024, to $1.1 billion in the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026, with 35% of the latter derived from outside the United States across more than 65 countries. The platform served approximately 3,235 customer organizations globally as of January 31, 2026, up from over 2,760 two years prior, employing 3,229 people across 24 countries.

SailPoint generates subscription revenue through two delivery models: Identity Security Cloud, a multi-tenant SaaS platform with ratable revenue recognition over multi-year contracts, and IdentityIQ, a customer-hosted solution for organizations with data-localization requirements. Contracts typically span three years with annual billing upfront. Customers are acquired directly and through a channel partner network of system integrators, value-added resellers, technology partners, and managed service providers; expansion within accounts via upselling suite upgrades and modules — including Data Access Security, Machine Identity Security, and Non-Employee Risk Management — is central to the growth motion. Technology alliances with Amazon Web Services, Proofpoint, SAP, and ServiceNow extend platform reach within customer IT environments. The 10-K identifies IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle as competitors that embed identity capabilities within broader enterprise software portfolios, alongside identity-focused providers Palo Alto Networks (CyberArk), Okta, and One Identity.

Show full overview

The competitive pressure from larger platform vendors is explicit in the 10-K: IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle are noted as having greater resources and existing customer relationships, with customers potentially preferring to consolidate onto existing supplier relationships regardless of product differentiation. A second risk dimension is AI-driven new entrants: the 10-K notes that development cycles for competitors using AI and agentic AI technologies may be more condensed than SailPoint's, accelerating competitive product availability. The company estimates over 60% of organizations in its target market still rely on fragmented or largely manual identity processes, representing the addressable opportunity and the adoption friction simultaneously.

See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure

From SailPoint, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 9, 202685d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 22%
Risks
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)35.9
Mkt Cap$8.1B
EV/EBITDA856.5
Profit Mgn-14.0%
ROE-2.3%
Rev Growth21.6%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C33.57bearish
IV97%elevated
Max Pain$35+140.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWGeographicoutside United States35%
    10-K Item 1: 'we generated 35% and 32%, respectively, of our revenue from outside of the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume
5.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.90Resistance $20.15

Price Targets

$13
$17
A.Upside+18.3%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-09 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAIL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.53, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $17.19 (+18.3%), stop $13.48 (−7.8%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAIL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.19 (+22.0% upside). Target $17.19 (+18.3%), stop $13.48 (−7.8%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $13.48.

What are the risks of investing in SAIL?

Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is SAIL overvalued or undervalued?

SailPoint, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 35.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SAIL?

30 analysts cover SAIL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does SailPoint, Inc. do?SailPoint delivers identity security through a cloud SaaS platform (Identity Security Cloud) and a customer-hosted...

SailPoint delivers identity security through a cloud SaaS platform (Identity Security Cloud) and a customer-hosted solution (IdentityIQ) for large enterprises and governments in more than 65 countries. Revenue grew from $699.6 million to $1.1 billion between fiscal years ended January 31, 2024 and January 31, 2026, with 3,235 customers and 3,229 employees as of January 31, 2026.

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