Value
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 38.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
SAIL · Why this verdict
Why SailPoint (SAIL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
SailPoint grew revenue at 22% year-over-year, placing it firmly in the high-growth cohort of identity security software companies, with analyst consensus targets implying 34% upside from the current price of $14.21. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEnterprise identity security spending can be deferred in tight IT budgets, and SailPoint faces competition from larger vendors who bundle identity governance into broader security platform offerings. | ||
SailPoint generates a 29% free cash flow margin and passes the Rule of 40 with a score of 50 despite reporting GAAP losses, demonstrating that the identity governance platform creates substantial cash value even before achieving GAAP profitability. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin expands beyond 32% within 12 months as revenue growth outpaces operating expense growth. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow positivity in enterprise software can reflect deferred revenue recognition from multi-year license contracts; if renewal rates decline, the cash cushion could reverse quickly. | ||
The 200-day moving average is declining at 4.4% per month with price in a confirmed death cross below all major moving averages, signaling a sustained trend deterioration that historically requires 3 to 6 months of base-building before a durable recovery begins. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the death cross resolves within 12 months, with RSI sustaining above 50. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical patterns in re-listed or newly public enterprise software stocks frequently lag the fundamental recovery; the death cross may be a timing artifact of the re-listing rather than a signal of business deterioration. | ||
Short interest stands at 18% of float with an elevated put/call ratio of 2.15, indicating that professional investors are expressing strong skepticism about the near-term price direction, with put buyers outnumbering call buyers by more than 2 to 1. Risk breakdown | Short interest declines below 10% and put/call ratio falls below 1.2 within 12 months as the technical setup improves. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest in a stock with 21% upside to analyst targets and strong fundamental metrics can create a powerful squeeze if the death cross resolves and earnings continue to beat estimates. | ||
SailPoint grew revenue at 22% year-over-year, placing it firmly in the high-growth cohort of identity security software companies, with analyst consensus targets implying 34% upside from the current price of $14.21.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterEnterprise identity security spending can be deferred in tight IT budgets, and SailPoint faces competition from larger vendors who bundle identity governance into broader security platform offerings.
SailPoint generates a 29% free cash flow margin and passes the Rule of 40 with a score of 50 despite reporting GAAP losses, demonstrating that the identity governance platform creates substantial cash value even before achieving GAAP profitability.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin expands beyond 32% within 12 months as revenue growth outpaces operating expense growth.
CounterFree cash flow positivity in enterprise software can reflect deferred revenue recognition from multi-year license contracts; if renewal rates decline, the cash cushion could reverse quickly.
The 200-day moving average is declining at 4.4% per month with price in a confirmed death cross below all major moving averages, signaling a sustained trend deterioration that historically requires 3 to 6 months of base-building before a durable recovery begins.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the death cross resolves within 12 months, with RSI sustaining above 50.
CounterTechnical patterns in re-listed or newly public enterprise software stocks frequently lag the fundamental recovery; the death cross may be a timing artifact of the re-listing rather than a signal of business deterioration.
Short interest stands at 18% of float with an elevated put/call ratio of 2.15, indicating that professional investors are expressing strong skepticism about the near-term price direction, with put buyers outnumbering call buyers by more than 2 to 1.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 10% and put/call ratio falls below 1.2 within 12 months as the technical setup improves.
CounterHigh short interest in a stock with 21% upside to analyst targets and strong fundamental metrics can create a powerful squeeze if the death cross resolves and earnings continue to beat estimates.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SailPoint's 22% revenue growth, 29% free cash flow margin, and Rule of 40 score of 50 establish it as a financially sound identity security platform, but a death cross with price well below the 200-day moving average and 18% short interest create a challenging technical environment for near-term gains.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.3 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.3 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 29%, FCF yield 3.7%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 50 (pass)
Growth
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 7.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $6,570,122 (0.076% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.1 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.4 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 21%
- ▸High IV: 103%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:68d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.81
Upside
+12.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.9; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.9, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, Technical at 4.0, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Fcf Margin Rule Of 40
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 15% for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue Growth 22 Percent
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Death Cross Technical Block
Trip ifPrice drops below $13.22, more than 7% below the current $14.21, extending the death cross pattern.
- P4Short Interest Put Call Pressure
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% of float or put/call ratio rises above 3.0.