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RH (RH) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $117.55: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 56%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

RH is a luxury home furnishings retailer with 89 retail locations including Design Galleries in the U.S., Canada, and Europe. Revenue is driven by members who accounted for approximately 97% of sales in fiscal 2025 among ~262,000 members; sourcing is heavily concentrated in Asia.

$117.55+17.4% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#8 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield13.24%
Stop $115.22Target $141.67(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$157.41+33.9%17 analysts
$141.67our TP
$117.55price
$157.41mean
$88
$275

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $117.55: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 56%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — RH

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia (69.0%)
Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.1
P/E (Fwd)12.7
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA11.5
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE
Rev Growth3.7%
Beta1.89
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.77neutral
IV89%elevated
Max Pain$75-36.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicAsia69%
    10-K Item 1A: '69% of our products were sourced from Asia, including 39% from Vietnam, 13% from China and the remainder predominantly from Indonesia and India'
  • MEDIUMGeographicVietnam39%
    10-K Item 1A: '69% of our products were sourced from Asia, including 39% from Vietnam, 13% from China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
5.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Short Interest
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Volatility
0.3
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Beta
3.7
Days To Cover
7.6
Put Call
8.2
High short interest: 56%High IV: 89%Above max pain $75Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 23d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $118.78Resistance $147.12

Price Targets

$115
$142
A.Upside+20.5%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)
! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-11 (23d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $117.55: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 56%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $115.22. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $141.67 (+17.4% upside). Prior stop was $115.22. Stop-loss: $115.22.

What are the risks of investing in RH?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia (69.0%); Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0).

Is RH overvalued or undervalued?

RH trades at a P/E of 19.1 (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RH?

28 analysts cover RH with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $157.

What does RH do?RH is a luxury home furnishings retailer with 89 retail locations including Design Galleries in the U.S., Canada, and...

RH is a luxury home furnishings retailer with 89 retail locations including Design Galleries in the U.S., Canada, and Europe. Revenue is driven by members who accounted for approximately 97% of sales in fiscal 2025 among ~262,000 members; sourcing is heavily concentrated in Asia.

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