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McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $290.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft... Read more

$290.24+9.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $280.68Target $317.40(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$345.00+18.9%33 analysts
$317.40our TP
$290.24price
$345.00mean
$250
$407

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $290.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.4%
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.3
P/E (Fwd)20.2
Mkt Cap$206.2B
EV/EBITDA17.8
Profit Mgn31.9%
ROE
Rev Growth9.7%
Beta0.53
Dividend2.56%
Rating analysts42

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.53bullish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$180-38.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    McDONALD'S CORPORATION | | | | | (Registrant) | | | | | | | | Date: | April 2, 2026 | | By: | /s/ Jeffrey J. Pochowicz | | | | | Jeffrey J. Pochowicz Vice President - Associat [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.2
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $289.30Resistance $312.54

Price Targets

$281
$317
A.Upside+9.4%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $290.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $317.40 (+9.4%), stop $280.68 (−3.4%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $317.40 (+9.4% upside). Target $317.40 (+9.4%), stop $280.68 (−3.4%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $280.68.

What are the risks of investing in MCD?

Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is MCD overvalued or undervalued?

McDonald's Corporation trades at a P/E of 24.3 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MCD?

42 analysts cover MCD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $345.

What does McDonald's Corporation do?McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and...

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Related stocks: YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.) · DRI (Darden Restaurants, Inc.) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International) · SBUX (Starbucks Corporation)