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McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $281.10: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft... Read more

$281.10+8.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.97%
IncomeYield2.63%(5y avg 2.21%)Payout59.85%sustainable
Stop $269.00Target $303.60(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$330.00+17.4%32 analysts
$303.60our TP
$281.10price
$330.00mean
$250
$407

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $281.10: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: conservative.

Recent Developments — McDonald's Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.1%
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.3
P/E (Fwd)19.9
Mkt Cap$200.7B
EV/EBITDA17.1
Profit Mgn31.6%
ROE
Rev Growth9.4%
Beta0.44
Dividend2.63%
Rating analysts42

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.02bearish
IV36%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    McDONALD'S CORPORATION | | | | | (Registrant) | | | | | | | | Date: | April 2, 2026 | | By: | /s/ Jeffrey J. Pochowicz | | | | | Jeffrey J. Pochowicz Vice President - Associat [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Conservative
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $271.98Resistance $304.89

Price Targets

$269
$304
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts42
Consensus3.7/5
Avg Target$330

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $281.10: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $269.00. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $303.60 (+8.1% upside). Prior stop was $269.00. Stop-loss: $269.00.

What are the risks of investing in MCD?

Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MCD overvalued or undervalued?

McDonald's Corporation trades at a P/E of 23.3 (forward 19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCD?

42 analysts cover MCD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $330.

What does McDonald's Corporation do?McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and...

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

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