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MCDMcDonald's CorporationHold5.7·$288.19+0.72%
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McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $288.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Below 200-day MA.

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft... Read more

$288.19+5.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.93%
IncomeYield2.60%(5y avg 2.22%)Payout59.85%sustainable
Stop $277.85Target $304.79(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$331.29+15.0%31 analysts
$304.79our TP
$288.19price
$331.29mean
$250
$407

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $288.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.9%
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.6
P/E (Fwd)20.1
Mkt Cap$203.3B
EV/EBITDA17.3
Profit Mgn31.6%
ROE
Rev Growth9.4%
Beta0.41
Dividend2.60%
Rating analysts40

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.36bearish
IV34%normal
Max Pain$470+63.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    McDONALD'S CORPORATION | | | | | (Registrant) | | | | | | | | Date: | April 2, 2026 | | By: | /s/ Jeffrey J. Pochowicz | | | | | Jeffrey J. Pochowicz Vice President - Associat [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
0.8
52w Position
7.1
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Conservative
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $271.56Resistance $289.29

Price Targets

$278
$305
A.Upside+5.8%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $288.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $304.79 (+5.8%), stop $277.85 (−3.7%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $304.79 (+5.9% upside). Target $304.79 (+5.8%), stop $277.85 (−3.7%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Stop-loss: $277.85.

What are the risks of investing in MCD?

Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Below 200-day MA.

Is MCD overvalued or undervalued?

McDonald's Corporation trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MCD?

40 analysts cover MCD with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $331.

What does McDonald's Corporation do?McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and...

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Related stocks: YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International) · DRI (Darden Restaurants, Inc.) · CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.) · SBUX (Starbucks Corporation)
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