Portland General Electric faces a combination of negative analyst estimate revisions of nearly 20%, a critical free cash flow deficit of negative 120% relative to net income, and below-floor business quality, making the current stock price unattractive with negative implied upside to target and no clear catalyst for a fundamental turnaround.
Thesis pillars
- Negative Fcf Quality Red Flag↑Improving
- Estimate Revision Deterioration↑Improving
- Regulatory Geographic Dual Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026· older than 90 days
Portland General Electric Co (POR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Sell if holding. At $45.06, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Oregon OPUC; Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon.
Portland General Electric Company is a vertically integrated regulated electric utility serving approximately 960,000 retail customers across a 4,000-square-mile service territory entirely within Oregon, generating $3.07 billion in total retail revenues in 2025. Retail prices... Read more
Sell if holding. At $45.06, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Oregon OPUC; Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 103d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Portland General Electric Co
About Portland General Electric Co
Portland General Electric served 960,000 retail customers across a 4,000-square-mile Oregon service territory at December 31, 2025, generating $3.07 billion in total retail revenues. The utility added 10,000 net customers during 2025, with data center and industrial load growth pushing industrial energy deliveries to 35% of total retail deliveries—up from 29% in 2023. The Public Utility Commission of Oregon (OPUC) sets all retail prices through a General Rate Case process that also authorizes capital structure and return on equity.
Portland General Electric earns regulated returns under OPUC-authorized cost-of-service pricing, with annual price adjustments available through the Annual Power Cost Update Tariff reflecting changes in net variable power costs—purchased power, fuel, and settled financial contracts net of wholesale revenues. The Power Cost Adjustment Mechanism allows sharing of cost variances with customers. Generation resources include natural gas plants near Clatskanie, Oregon (Port Westward Units 1 and 2 and Beaver) supplied by the Kelso-Beaver Pipeline, in which PGE holds a 79.5% ownership interest. The company participates in the California Independent System Operator's western Energy Imbalance Market for real-time five-minute load balancing. Wholesale revenues represented 12% of total revenues in 2025, down from 16% in 2024, as retail load absorption grew. No single retail customer represented more than 9% of total retail revenues during 2025.
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Prior to a pending acquisition, PGE's assets and operations were concentrated entirely in Oregon and subject to OPUC oversight exclusively. The pending asset purchase would add approximately 140,000 customers in Washington state—across Lewis, Yakima, Walla Walla, Columbia, Garfield, and Benton counties, including the Chehalis combined cycle gas turbine and Goodnoe Hills and Marengo wind facilities—bringing PGE under the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission, which uses different rate-making procedures and environmental mandates. If the acquisition fails to close, the company may be required to pay a termination fee of $35 million. Oregon House Bill 2021 targets 80% greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2030 and 100% decarbonization by 2040, independent of the acquisition outcome.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
From Portland General Electric Co's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Portland General Electric Co
Latest news
- NEWS BofA Securities Adjusts Price Target on Portland General Electric to $45 From $43 — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS BMO Trims Price Target on Portland General Electric to $47 From $48 — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight Rating on Portland General Electric, Lowers Price Target — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Portland General Electric, Lowers Price Target to $56 — benzinga Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Portland Gen Electric Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Oct 29, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:04:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHregulatoryOregon OPUC10-K Item 1A: 'PGE's assets and operations were primarily concentrated in Oregon and subject to the regulatory oversight of the Public Utility Commission of Oregon (OPUC)'
- HIGHGeographicOregon10-K Item 1: 'PGE generates revenue primarily through the sale and delivery of electricity to retail customers located exclusively in Oregon'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $45.06, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Oregon OPUC; Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $43.34. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $44.37 reached (−1.5% from $45.06); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $43.34. Stop-loss: $43.34.
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Oregon OPUC; Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Portland General Electric Co trades at a P/E of 19.3 (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts rate POR, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 11 analysts publish price targets averaging $51.
What does Portland General Electric Co do?Portland General Electric Company is a vertically integrated regulated electric utility serving approximately 960,000...
Portland General Electric Company is a vertically integrated regulated electric utility serving approximately 960,000 retail customers across a 4,000-square-mile service territory entirely within Oregon, generating $3.07 billion in total retail revenues in 2025. Retail prices are set by the Public Utility Commission of Oregon through General Rate Cases, with residential (48%), commercial (32%), and industrial (18%) customer classes.