Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.4 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.91
POR · Why this verdict
Why Portland General Electric (POR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Portland General Electric faces a combination of negative analyst estimate revisions of nearly 20%, a critical free cash flow deficit of negative 120% relative to net income, and below-floor business quality, making the current stock price unattractive with negative implied upside to target and no clear catalyst for a fundamental turnaround.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is deeply negative at negative 120% relative to net income, which is a significant earnings quality red flag for a regulated utility that typically requires stable cash generation to fund dividend payments and infrastructure investment. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves to above negative 50% within the next 2 annual reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulated utilities routinely run negative free cash flow during capital investment cycles; rate cases with the Oregon Public Utility Commission can recover these costs over time with predictable returns. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates have declined by 19.8% over the past 30 days and the company missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 8.97%, indicating that the business is underperforming expectations consistently. Catalyst breakdown | The 30-day estimate revision trend turns positive, with consensus EPS estimates rising by more than 5% over any consecutive 30-day window in the next 6 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterNear-term estimate cuts in regulated utilities often lag regulatory decisions; a favorable rate order from the Oregon regulator could reverse the estimate decline quickly. | ||
The company's entire customer base is in Oregon and subject exclusively to the Oregon Public Utility Commission for rate approvals, creating a dual concentration where a single regulatory body controls the primary lever for revenue growth. Bear case | The company receives a favorable rate case decision that allows recovery of capital expenditures and supports earnings growth above 5% annually. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSingle-state regulated utilities benefit from regulatory certainty; the Oregon regulator has historically allowed timely cost recovery, which reduces earnings volatility compared to unregulated peers. | ||
The catalyst score flags a yield trap warning, indicating that while the dividend yield is elevated, it is not considered safe relative to free cash flow, which means investors relying on the dividend for total return may face a cut or suspension. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend payout is maintained at the current level or raised over the next 4 consecutive quarters without a reduction. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegulated utilities have strong political and regulatory incentives to maintain dividends, and management will typically prioritize the dividend even when free cash flow is temporarily negative. | ||
Free cash flow is deeply negative at negative 120% relative to net income, which is a significant earnings quality red flag for a regulated utility that typically requires stable cash generation to fund dividend payments and infrastructure investment.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves to above negative 50% within the next 2 annual reporting periods.
CounterRegulated utilities routinely run negative free cash flow during capital investment cycles; rate cases with the Oregon Public Utility Commission can recover these costs over time with predictable returns.
Analyst earnings estimates have declined by 19.8% over the past 30 days and the company missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 8.97%, indicating that the business is underperforming expectations consistently.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The 30-day estimate revision trend turns positive, with consensus EPS estimates rising by more than 5% over any consecutive 30-day window in the next 6 months.
CounterNear-term estimate cuts in regulated utilities often lag regulatory decisions; a favorable rate order from the Oregon regulator could reverse the estimate decline quickly.
The company's entire customer base is in Oregon and subject exclusively to the Oregon Public Utility Commission for rate approvals, creating a dual concentration where a single regulatory body controls the primary lever for revenue growth.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The company receives a favorable rate case decision that allows recovery of capital expenditures and supports earnings growth above 5% annually.
CounterSingle-state regulated utilities benefit from regulatory certainty; the Oregon regulator has historically allowed timely cost recovery, which reduces earnings volatility compared to unregulated peers.
The catalyst score flags a yield trap warning, indicating that while the dividend yield is elevated, it is not considered safe relative to free cash flow, which means investors relying on the dividend for total return may face a cut or suspension.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend payout is maintained at the current level or raised over the next 4 consecutive quarters without a reduction.
CounterRegulated utilities have strong political and regulatory incentives to maintain dividends, and management will typically prioritize the dividend even when free cash flow is temporarily negative.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 5.5 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 3.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -120% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $729,829 (0.012% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 7.8 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.28
Upside
-11.4%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.6<4.5 outcome against Technical at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of -2.28.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.9, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 0.6, Catalyst at 3.1, and Peer rank at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Negative Fcf Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow remains below negative 80% of net income for 2 or more consecutive annual reporting periods.
- P2Estimate Revision Deterioration
Trip ifConsensus EPS estimates fall by more than 10% in any 30-day window over the next 6 months.
- P3Regulatory Geographic Dual Concentration
Trip ifThe Oregon regulator approves a rate increase below 3% in the next filed rate case, insufficient to cover capital spending.
- P4Yield Trap Dividend Warning
Trip ifThe quarterly dividend is reduced by more than 10% at any point over the next 12 months.