Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.4 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.90
POR · Why this verdict
Why Portland General Electric (POR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score3.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is deeply negative at negative 120% relative to net income, which is a significant earnings quality red flag for a regulated utility that typically requires stable cash generation to fund dividend payments and infrastructure investment. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves to above negative 50% within the next 2 annual reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulated utilities routinely run negative free cash flow during capital investment cycles; rate cases with the Oregon Public Utility Commission can recover these costs over time with predictable returns. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates have declined by 19.8% over the past 30 days and the company missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 8.97%, indicating that the business is underperforming expectations consistently. Catalyst breakdown | The 30-day estimate revision trend turns positive, with consensus EPS estimates rising by more than 5% over any consecutive 30-day window in the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNear-term estimate cuts in regulated utilities often lag regulatory decisions; a favorable rate order from the Oregon regulator could reverse the estimate decline quickly. | ||
The company's entire customer base is in Oregon and subject exclusively to the Oregon Public Utility Commission for rate approvals, creating a dual concentration where a single regulatory body controls the primary lever for revenue growth. Bear case | The company receives a favorable rate case decision that allows recovery of capital expenditures and supports earnings growth above 5% annually. | →Stable |
| CounterSingle-state regulated utilities benefit from regulatory certainty; the Oregon regulator has historically allowed timely cost recovery, which reduces earnings volatility compared to unregulated peers. | ||
The catalyst score flags a yield trap warning, indicating that while the dividend yield is elevated, it is not considered safe relative to free cash flow, which means investors relying on the dividend for total return may face a cut or suspension. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend payout is maintained at the current level or raised over the next 4 consecutive quarters without a reduction. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulated utilities have strong political and regulatory incentives to maintain dividends, and management will typically prioritize the dividend even when free cash flow is temporarily negative. | ||
Free cash flow is deeply negative at negative 120% relative to net income, which is a significant earnings quality red flag for a regulated utility that typically requires stable cash generation to fund dividend payments and infrastructure investment.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves to above negative 50% within the next 2 annual reporting periods.
CounterRegulated utilities routinely run negative free cash flow during capital investment cycles; rate cases with the Oregon Public Utility Commission can recover these costs over time with predictable returns.
Analyst earnings estimates have declined by 19.8% over the past 30 days and the company missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 8.97%, indicating that the business is underperforming expectations consistently.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The 30-day estimate revision trend turns positive, with consensus EPS estimates rising by more than 5% over any consecutive 30-day window in the next 6 months.
CounterNear-term estimate cuts in regulated utilities often lag regulatory decisions; a favorable rate order from the Oregon regulator could reverse the estimate decline quickly.
The company's entire customer base is in Oregon and subject exclusively to the Oregon Public Utility Commission for rate approvals, creating a dual concentration where a single regulatory body controls the primary lever for revenue growth.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company receives a favorable rate case decision that allows recovery of capital expenditures and supports earnings growth above 5% annually.
CounterSingle-state regulated utilities benefit from regulatory certainty; the Oregon regulator has historically allowed timely cost recovery, which reduces earnings volatility compared to unregulated peers.
The catalyst score flags a yield trap warning, indicating that while the dividend yield is elevated, it is not considered safe relative to free cash flow, which means investors relying on the dividend for total return may face a cut or suspension.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend payout is maintained at the current level or raised over the next 4 consecutive quarters without a reduction.
CounterRegulated utilities have strong political and regulatory incentives to maintain dividends, and management will typically prioritize the dividend even when free cash flow is temporarily negative.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Portland General Electric faces a combination of negative analyst estimate revisions of nearly 20%, a critical free cash flow deficit of negative 120% relative to net income, and below-floor business quality, making the current stock price unattractive with negative implied upside to target and no clear catalyst for a fundamental turnaround.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 5.5 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 3.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -120% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $729,829 (0.012% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 7.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.42
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.73
Upside
-13.1%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 5.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 5.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.8, and Momentum at 5.0; the weakest are Growth at 0.6, Peer rank at 2.8, and Catalyst at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Negative Fcf Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow remains below negative 80% of net income for 2 or more consecutive annual reporting periods.
- P2Estimate Revision Deterioration
Trip ifConsensus EPS estimates fall by more than 10% in any 30-day window over the next 6 months.
- P3Regulatory Geographic Dual Concentration
Trip ifThe Oregon regulator approves a rate increase below 3% in the next filed rate case, insufficient to cover capital spending.
- P4Yield Trap Dividend Warning
Trip ifThe quarterly dividend is reduced by more than 10% at any point over the next 12 months.