Pacific Gas & Electric ranks as an industry growth leader for regulated utilities with rising earnings and 23% analyst upside at a forward P/E of 9.2x, though negative free cash flow of 196% relative to net income and heavy California geographic concentration temper the quality case.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Deficit Quality Concern→Stable
- Utility Growth Leader Valuation→Stable
- Earnings Growth Beat Cadence↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026· older than 90 days
Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (PCG) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Sector Rotation edge
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $13.40: Concentration risk — Geographic: Northern and Central California; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).
Pacific Gas and Electric Company serves Northern and Central California as a regulated electric and natural gas utility, owned by PG&E Corporation. Revenue is earned under cost-of-service ratemaking with rates set by the CPUC and FERC; the utility recorded $13.4 billion in... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $13.40: Concentration risk — Geographic: Northern and Central California; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 98d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About Pacific Gas & Electric Co.
About Pacific Gas & Electric Co.
PG&E Corporation's primary operating subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, recorded $13.4 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, with forecasted capex of $15.4 billion in 2028, $16.3 billion in 2029, and $16.0 billion in 2030. The utility serves Northern and Central California under the jurisdiction of the CPUC, FERC, and NRC, has contracted for more than 4.9 GW of battery energy storage capacity, and has helped connect over 820,000 electric vehicles within its service area.
Pacific Gas and Electric earns revenue through the sale and delivery of electricity and natural gas under cost-of-service ratemaking, where the CPUC and FERC set authorized rates and returns on capital in periodic ratemaking proceedings. The utility operates two nuclear generating units, an extensive hydroelectric system, and contracted renewable resources alongside transmission and distribution infrastructure across its service territory. Recovery of capex depends on regulatory authorization of future rate base additions: $2.85 billion of fire risk mitigation capital expenditures are excluded from the equity rate base under SB 254. The company targets limiting average annual customer rate increases to 3%, relying on expected load growth from data centers, electric vehicles, and building electrification to spread fixed costs, and targets a dividend payout ratio of approximately 20% of core earnings by 2028.
Show full overview
Wildfire liability is a distinct structural risk with specific financial consequences. Accrued losses for the 2019 Kincade fire and 2021 Dixie fire stand at $1.325 billion and $2.15 billion respectively, against available insurance coverage of only $430 million and $521 million; recovery of the excess requires CPUC determinations of prudent cost management. The disallowance cap under AB 1054 and SB 254 is unavailable if the Wildfire Fund administrator finds the utility acted with 'conscious or willful disregard for the rights and safety of others,' or if the utility lacks a valid OEIS safety certification at the time of ignition. The CPUC's Enhanced Oversight and Enforcement Process could escalate to revocation of the utility's Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity based on specific triggering events.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
From Pacific Gas & Electric Co.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 22, 2026Recent Developments — Pacific Gas & Electric Co.
Latest news
- NEWS Pacific Gas & Electric Q3 Earnings Call Highlights - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS PCG Stock Drops As UBS Slashes Price Target To $14 - Timothy Sykes — Timothy Sykes Oct 22, 2026 negative
- NEWS Pacific Gas & Electric Co. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $17.94, Implies 36% Upside - TradingView — TradingView Oct 22, 2026 negative
- NEWS PG&E (PCG) Faces A Valuation Split, Is The Stock Still Cheap? - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS PCG Dividends & Corporate Actions - Pluang — Pluang Oct 14, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 22, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNorthern and Central California10-K Item 1: 'Pacific Gas and Electric Company, a public utility operating in Northern and Central California'
- MEDIUMregulatoryCPUC10-K Item 1: 'The Utility is regulated primarily at the state level by the CPUC'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -1.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $13.40: Concentration risk — Geographic: Northern and Central California; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Prior stop was $12.76. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $15.86 (+18.3% upside). Prior stop was $12.76. Stop-loss: $12.76.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Northern and Central California; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0.
Pacific Gas & Electric Co. trades at a P/E of 9.9 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts rate PCG, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 17 analysts publish price targets averaging $18.
What does Pacific Gas & Electric Co. do?Pacific Gas and Electric Company serves Northern and Central California as a regulated electric and natural gas...
Pacific Gas and Electric Company serves Northern and Central California as a regulated electric and natural gas utility, owned by PG&E Corporation. Revenue is earned under cost-of-service ratemaking with rates set by the CPUC and FERC; the utility recorded $13.4 billion in capital expenditures in 2025.