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PCGPacific Gas & Electric Co.Sell6.4·$16.74+0.97%
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Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (PCG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $16.74: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Concentration risk — Geographic: Northern and Central California.

Pacific Gas and Electric Company serves Northern and Central California as a regulated electric and natural gas utility, owned by PG&E Corporation. Revenue is earned under cost-of-service ratemaking with rates set by the CPUC and FERC; the utility recorded $13.4 billion in... Read more

$16.74+21.4% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#2 of 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-15.26%
IncomeYield1.21%(5y avg 3.32%)Payout11.63%sustainable
Stop $15.92Target $20.33(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$22.59+35.0%16 analysts
$20.33our TP
$16.74price
$22.59mean
$28

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $16.74: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Concentration risk — Geographic: Northern and Central California. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

About Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

PG&E Corporation's primary operating subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, recorded $13.4 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, with forecasted capex of $15.4 billion in 2028, $16.3 billion in 2029, and $16.0 billion in 2030. The utility serves Northern and Central California under the jurisdiction of the CPUC, FERC, and NRC, has contracted for more than 4.9 GW of battery energy storage capacity, and has helped connect over 820,000 electric vehicles within its service area.

Pacific Gas and Electric earns revenue through the sale and delivery of electricity and natural gas under cost-of-service ratemaking, where the CPUC and FERC set authorized rates and returns on capital in periodic ratemaking proceedings. The utility operates two nuclear generating units, an extensive hydroelectric system, and contracted renewable resources alongside transmission and distribution infrastructure across its service territory. Recovery of capex depends on regulatory authorization of future rate base additions: $2.85 billion of fire risk mitigation capital expenditures are excluded from the equity rate base under SB 254. The company targets limiting average annual customer rate increases to 3%, relying on expected load growth from data centers, electric vehicles, and building electrification to spread fixed costs, and targets a dividend payout ratio of approximately 20% of core earnings by 2028.

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Wildfire liability is a distinct structural risk with specific financial consequences. Accrued losses for the 2019 Kincade fire and 2021 Dixie fire stand at $1.325 billion and $2.15 billion respectively, against available insurance coverage of only $430 million and $521 million; recovery of the excess requires CPUC determinations of prudent cost management. The disallowance cap under AB 1054 and SB 254 is unavailable if the Wildfire Fund administrator finds the utility acted with 'conscious or willful disregard for the rights and safety of others,' or if the utility lacks a valid OEIS safety certification at the time of ignition. The CPUC's Enhanced Oversight and Enforcement Process could escalate to revocation of the utility's Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity based on specific triggering events.

See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

From Pacific Gas & Electric Co.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 21%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Northern and Central California
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0
Negative news sentiment (-0.67)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.9
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$36.5B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn11.0%
ROE8.8%
Rev Growth15.0%
Beta0.27
Dividend1.21%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.21bullish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$35+109.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorthern and Central California
    10-K Item 1: 'Pacific Gas and Electric Company, a public utility operating in Northern and Central California'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryCPUC
    10-K Item 1: 'The Utility is regulated primarily at the state level by the CPUC'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 6.3>=5.5A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.85Resistance $17.25

Price Targets

$16
$20
A.Upside+21.4%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts22
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$23

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PCG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $16.74: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Concentration risk — Geographic: Northern and Central California. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $15.92. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PCG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.33 (+21.4% upside). Prior stop was $15.92. Stop-loss: $15.92.

What are the risks of investing in PCG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Northern and Central California; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Negative news sentiment (-0.67).

Is PCG overvalued or undervalued?

Pacific Gas & Electric Co. trades at a P/E of 12.9 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PCG?

22 analysts cover PCG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Pacific Gas & Electric Co. do?Pacific Gas and Electric Company serves Northern and Central California as a regulated electric and natural gas...

Pacific Gas and Electric Company serves Northern and Central California as a regulated electric and natural gas utility, owned by PG&E Corporation. Revenue is earned under cost-of-service ratemaking with rates set by the CPUC and FERC; the utility recorded $13.4 billion in capital expenditures in 2025.

Related stocks: PEG (Public Service Enterprise Group) · ELPC (Companhia Paranaense de Energia) · NEE (NextEra Energy, Inc.) · DUK (Duke Energy Corporation (Holdin) · AEE (Ameren Corporation)
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