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QXO, Inc. (QXO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.02: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 5.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

QXO is the largest publicly-traded distributor of roofing, waterproofing, and complementary building products in North America, operating ~600 branches across all 50 U.S. states and seven Canadian provinces after acquiring Beacon Roofing Supply in April 2025. It serves over... Read more

$17.02+61.6% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#13 of 17 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-10.62%
Stop $15.78Target $27.41(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.2:1
Analyst target$31.50+85.1%12 analysts
$27.41our TP
$17.02price
$31.50mean
$50

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.02: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 5.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — QXO, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)21.6
Mkt Cap$11.6B
EV/EBITDA29.3
Profit Mgn-6.0%
ROE-6.8%
Rev Growth12716.3%
Beta2.37
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$12-29.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierthree suppliers each contributing 10%+ of purchases35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we had three suppliers that each contributed 10% or more of total purchases and, in total, represented nearly 35% of total purchases.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On March 15, 2026, Sean Smith (Chief Accounting Officer) resigned effective March 15, 2026, to pursue employment closer to his family. Robert Loughran appointed Interim Chief Accounting Officer effective March 16, 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Unprofitable operations — net margin -6.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.9
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
9.7
Cash-burning: FCF -14% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.50Resistance $22.17

Price Targets

$16
$27
A.Upside+61.0%
A.R:R5.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QXO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.02: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 5.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $15.78. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the QXO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.41 (+61.6% upside). Prior stop was $15.78. Stop-loss: $15.78.

What are the risks of investing in QXO?

Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).

Is QXO overvalued or undervalued?

QXO, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 21.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QXO?

19 analysts cover QXO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $32.

What does QXO, Inc. do?QXO is the largest publicly-traded distributor of roofing, waterproofing, and complementary building products in North...

QXO is the largest publicly-traded distributor of roofing, waterproofing, and complementary building products in North America, operating ~600 branches across all 50 U.S. states and seven Canadian provinces after acquiring Beacon Roofing Supply in April 2025. It serves over 110,000 residential and non-residential contractor customers; no single customer accounts for more than 1% of net sales. QXO targets $50B in annual revenues within a decade through acquisitions, with the Kodiak Building Partners acquisition expected to close in Q2 2026.

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