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QXO, Inc. (QXO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.84: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

QXO is the largest publicly-traded distributor of roofing, waterproofing, and complementary building products in North America, operating ~600 branches through QXO Building Products (formerly Beacon Roofing Supply) across all 50 U.S. states and seven Canadian provinces. It... Read more

$19.84+44.4% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#15 of 17 Industrial Distribution
Stop $18.49Target $28.71(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$33.00+66.3%13 analysts
$28.71our TP
$19.84price
$33.00mean
$50

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.84: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)28.7
Mkt Cap$14.2B
EV/EBITDA33.2
Profit Mgn-4.1%
ROE-3.8%
Rev Growth14725.0%
Beta2.47
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$12-39.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSuppliertop-3 suppliers35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we had three suppliers that each contributed 10% or more of total purchases and, in total, represented nearly 35% of total purchases'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Sean Smith (Chief Accounting Officer) resigned effective March 15, 2026 to pursue employment closer to family. Robert Loughran appointed Interim Chief Accounting Officer effective March 16, 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Unprofitable operations — net margin -4.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.3
Gross Margin
1.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
8.9
Current Ratio
9.4
Cash-burning: FCF -20% of revenueNo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9Quality concerns
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.05Resistance $25.44

Price Targets

$18
$29
A.Upside+44.7%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QXO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.84: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $18.49. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the QXO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.71 (+44.4% upside). Prior stop was $18.49. Stop-loss: $18.49.

What are the risks of investing in QXO?

Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).

Is QXO overvalued or undervalued?

QXO, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 28.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QXO?

21 analysts cover QXO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $33.

What does QXO, Inc. do?QXO is the largest publicly-traded distributor of roofing, waterproofing, and complementary building products in North...

QXO is the largest publicly-traded distributor of roofing, waterproofing, and complementary building products in North America, operating ~600 branches through QXO Building Products (formerly Beacon Roofing Supply) across all 50 U.S. states and seven Canadian provinces. It serves 110,000+ residential and non-residential customers; ~80% of industry revenue is repair and re-roofing.

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