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AITApplied Industrial TechnologiesSell5.9·$333.39
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Applied Industrial Technologies is a high-quality industrial distribution franchise — earning a perfect 9-out-of-9 Piotroski financial health score and recognized as best-in-class among peers on margins — but the stock trades just 1.2% below its price target with a risk/reward ratio of 0.26-to-1 that is deeply unfavorable for new exposure. Falling on-balance volume and a 2.2x average-volume surge on a recent selloff day introduce a near-term distribution signal that adds caution to an otherwise sound fundamental picture.

Thesis pillars

  • Stretched Valuation Unfavorable Risk Reward↓Deteriorating
  • Piotroski Perfect Score Best In Class Margins→Stable
  • Bearish Volume Distribution Signal→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) Stock Analysis

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. At $333.39, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%).

Applied Industrial Technologies distributes industrial motion, power, control, and automation products through its Service Center (66% of fiscal 2025 sales) and Engineered Solutions (34%) segments across North America, Australia, and New Zealand. It sells over 9.2 million SKUs... Read more

$333.39+4.4% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 20 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.98%
IncomeYield0.61%(5y avg 0.93%)Payout17.72%sustainable
Stop $319.03Target $348.00(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$400.00+20.0%6 analysts
$348.00our TP
$333.39price
$400.00mean
$420

Sell if holding. At $333.39, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Applied Industrial Technologies

About Applied Industrial Technologies

Applied Industrial Technologies' Service Center segment generated 66% of fiscal 2025 sales through MRO-focused distribution, while its higher-margin Engineered Solutions segment, contributing over 40% of consolidated EBITDA on 34% of sales, provides fluid power, flow control, and automation engineering. The company employs approximately 6,800 associates across seven countries, with 88% of fiscal 2025 sales generated in the United States and the remainder split between Canada and other international markets.

Applied earns revenue by reselling more than 9.2 million SKUs — industrial bearings, power transmission products, fluid power components, and specialty flow control and automation equipment — sourced as a non-exclusive distributor from thousands of manufacturers, paired with value-added services such as inventory management, engineering, repair, and systems integration. Its Service Center network of roughly 430 local facilities handles break-fix MRO fulfillment close to customer plants, while its approximately 170 Engineered Solutions facilities perform more specialized fluid power, flow control, and automation design, assembly, and integration work, including for the U.S. build-out of datacenter and semiconductor infrastructure. The company's customer base spans thousands of accounts across industries such as food processing, chemicals, mining, and life sciences, with no single customer accounting for more than 5% of fiscal 2025 sales, and management points to industry consolidation and acquisitions as an ongoing growth lever given high market fragmentation.

Show full overview

Despite Applied's broad diversification across customers, suppliers, and end markets, its revenue base is geographically concentrated: 88% of fiscal 2025 sales were generated in the United States, with Canada contributing 6% and the balance split among Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Costa Rica. That concentration ties Applied's results closely to U.S. industrial production, capacity utilization, and reshoring trends rather than to a globally diversified revenue base, meaning a U.S.-specific manufacturing slowdown would weigh disproportionately on results relative to a multinational industrial distributor with a larger non-U.S. footprint.

See also: Industrials · Industrial Distribution

From Applied Industrial Technologies's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 27, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%)
Thin upside margin: 4.4%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.3
P/E (Fwd)25.1
Mkt Cap$12.2B
EV/EBITDA20.4
Profit Mgn8.3%
ROE22.4%
Rev Growth10.4%
Beta0.83
Dividend0.61%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV35%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States88%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our operations are primarily based in the United States where 88% of our fiscal 2025 sales were generated.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
2.6
52w Position
7.8
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $312.25Resistance $340.96

Price Targets

$319
$348
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-27 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AIT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $333.39, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $319.03. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AIT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $348.00 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $319.03. Stop-loss: $319.03.

What are the risks of investing in AIT?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is AIT overvalued or undervalued?

Applied Industrial Technologies trades at a P/E of 30.3 (forward 25.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AIT?

13 analysts cover AIT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $400.

What does Applied Industrial Technologies do?Applied Industrial Technologies distributes industrial motion, power, control, and automation products through its...

Applied Industrial Technologies distributes industrial motion, power, control, and automation products through its Service Center (66% of fiscal 2025 sales) and Engineered Solutions (34%) segments across North America, Australia, and New Zealand. It sells over 9.2 million SKUs via roughly 600 facilities and 6,800 employees; 88% of fiscal 2025 sales came from the United States, with no single customer exceeding 5% of sales.

Related stocks: GIC (Global Industrial Company) · GWW (W.W. Grainger, Inc.) · DNOW (DNOW Inc.) · QXO (QXO, Inc.) · XMTR (Xometry, Inc.)
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