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Polaris Inc. (PII) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.98: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality.

Polaris designs, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles (ORVs, snowmobiles, boats, moto-roadsters) and aftermarket PG&A through ~2,400 NA dealers and international distributors. Revenue comes from vehicle sales and PG&A across Off Road, On Road, and Marine segments;... Read more

$63.98+6.3% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#7 of 7 Recreational Vehicles
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield9.64%
IncomeYield4.25%(5y avg 3.29%)Payout373.24%at-risk
Stop $59.50Target $68.04(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$68.00+6.3%15 analysts
$68.04our TP
$63.98price
$68.00mean
$43
$84

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.98: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Polaris Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-4.3% upside)
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)20.4
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA16.4
Profit Mgn-6.1%
ROE-44.9%
Rev Growth7.5%
Beta1.26
Dividend4.25%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$35-45.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-01Item 5.02LOW
    At the 2026 Annual Meeting on April 30, 2026, stockholders approved amendment to the 2024 Omnibus Incentive Plan adding 4,580,000 shares (to 8,905,000 total). Routine equity plan increase; no officer departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.2
Roa
0.5
Moat
3.6
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $55.85Resistance $69.43

Price Targets

$60
$68
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PII stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.98: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $59.50. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PII stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.04 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $59.50. Stop-loss: $59.50.

What are the risks of investing in PII?

Target reached (-4.3% upside); Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).

Is PII overvalued or undervalued?

Polaris Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 20.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PII?

22 analysts cover PII with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $68.

What does Polaris Inc. do?Polaris designs, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles (ORVs, snowmobiles, boats, moto-roadsters) and...

Polaris designs, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles (ORVs, snowmobiles, boats, moto-roadsters) and aftermarket PG&A through ~2,400 NA dealers and international distributors. Revenue comes from vehicle sales and PG&A across Off Road, On Road, and Marine segments; Indian Motorcycle was separated in Q1 2026, and the company had ~14,500 employees globally as of December 31, 2025.

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