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Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak overall score: 4.6/10.

Pegasystems develops enterprise AI decisioning and workflow automation software (Pega Platform) for financial services, healthcare, government, insurance, and other large enterprises globally. Revenue is primarily subscription-based with $2.1B in backlog as of December 31, 2025;... Read more

$33.92+50.2% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#96 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield9.47%
IncomeYield0.36%(5y avg 0.21%)Payout8.11%sustainable
Stop $31.35Target $50.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.2:1
Analyst target$58.18+71.5%11 analysts
$50.62our TP
$33.92price
$58.18mean
$71

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak overall score: 4.6/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Pegasystems Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.0 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Weak overall score: 4.6/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.2
P/E (Fwd)11.1
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA25.3
Profit Mgn20.0%
ROE51.7%
Rev Growth-9.6%
Beta0.88
Dividend0.36%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved the 2026 Section 16 Officer/ALT Member Corporate Incentive Compensation Plan on February 9, 2026, covering executive officers. Financial goals weighted 75%, strategic goals 25%. Routine annual compensation plan adoption.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -9.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.1
Declining revenue: -10%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.8
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.1
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
6.3
Quality Rank
8.4
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $32.23Resistance $44.65

Price Targets

$31
$51
A.Upside+49.2%
A.R:R5.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PEGA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak overall score: 4.6/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $31.35. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the PEGA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.62 (+50.2% upside). Prior stop was $31.35. Stop-loss: $31.35.

What are the risks of investing in PEGA?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak overall score: 4.6/10; Weak growth.

Is PEGA overvalued or undervalued?

Pegasystems Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PEGA?

19 analysts cover PEGA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $58.

What does Pegasystems Inc. do?Pegasystems develops enterprise AI decisioning and workflow automation software (Pega Platform) for financial services,...

Pegasystems develops enterprise AI decisioning and workflow automation software (Pega Platform) for financial services, healthcare, government, insurance, and other large enterprises globally. Revenue is primarily subscription-based with $2.1B in backlog as of December 31, 2025; the company also faces ongoing trade-secret litigation with Appian Corp. where a $2B+ judgment was reversed and remanded for retrial.

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