Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.5/10; Weak growth.
Pegasystems develops enterprise software for AI decisioning and workflow automation, serving large brands and government agencies globally via its Pega Infinity platform. Revenue from Pega Cloud subscriptions, term licenses, and perpetual licenses; 45% came from outside the U.S.... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.5/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicinternational customers (outside U.S.)45%10-K Item 1A: 'We market our products and services to clients based outside of the U.S., representing 45% of our revenue over the last three years.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOWFebruary 9, 2026: Board approved 2026 Section 16 Officer Incentive Compensation Plan covering executive officers. Plan period January 1 to December 31, 2026. Performance goals consist of financial (75%) and strategic goals (25%).SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -9.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.5/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $33.31. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $50.62 (+42.3% upside). Prior stop was $33.31. Stop-loss: $33.31.
Weak overall score: 4.5/10; Weak growth; Negative momentum.
Pegasystems Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.3 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover PEGA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $58.
What does Pegasystems Inc. do?Pegasystems develops enterprise software for AI decisioning and workflow automation, serving large brands and...
Pegasystems develops enterprise software for AI decisioning and workflow automation, serving large brands and government agencies globally via its Pega Infinity platform. Revenue from Pega Cloud subscriptions, term licenses, and perpetual licenses; 45% came from outside the U.S. over the last three years.