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PEGAPegasystems Inc.Sell4.7·$32.94+0.53%
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Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth.

Pegasystems develops enterprise AI decisioning and workflow automation software (Pega Platform) for financial services, healthcare, government, insurance, and other large enterprises globally. Revenue is primarily subscription-based with $2.1B in backlog as of December 31, 2025;... Read more

$32.94+53.7% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#96 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield9.74%
IncomeYield0.37%(5y avg 0.21%)Payout8.11%sustainable
Stop $30.63Target $50.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.2:1
Analyst target$58.18+76.6%11 analysts
$50.62our TP
$32.94price
$58.18mean
$71

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Pegasystems Inc.

About Pegasystems Inc.

Pegasystems reports $2.1 billion in contracted revenue backlog at December 31, 2025, with 5,598 employees distributed across Americas (2,002), Europe (1,272), India (1,982), and Asia-Pacific (342). The Pega Platform serves large enterprises and government agencies across financial services, healthcare, government, communications, and insurance, with 45% of revenue generated from clients outside the United States over the last three years.

Pegasystems generates revenue through Pega Cloud subscriptions (company-hosted, carrying recurring third-party infrastructure costs that compress cloud margins relative to on-premises licenses), subscription term licenses (recognized upfront), and consulting and maintenance services. Clients typically begin with a focused license or Pega Cloud arrangement before expanding to adjacent workflows, a pattern that drives follow-on revenue but creates short-term bookings variability. The company's largest partners — including Accenture, Infosys, Cognizant Technology Solutions, HCL Tech, and Tata Consultancy Services — provide implementation services, co-marketing, and lead generation through the Pega partner program, which spans systems integrators, hyperscalers, and ISVs. Competitors include IBM, Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Salesforce, SAP SE, and ServiceNow, most holding significantly larger sales, marketing, and financial resources. Pega's differentiation rests on the unified Pega Platform and Blueprint, which applies large language models to accelerate application design and deployment.

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Pegasystems carries a substantial litigation overhang from Appian Corp. A September 2022 Virginia circuit court judgment of approximately $2.06 billion was reversed by the Court of Appeals in July 2024 and remanded for retrial; the Virginia Supreme Court unanimously affirmed that reversal in January 2026. While the full litigation process including retrial and possible future appeals could take years, if the company ultimately loses a reinstated judgment, it could require significant debt issuance or equity capital markets transactions — an outcome Pegasystems acknowledges while stating it believes it has the financial strength to pay if necessary.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Pegasystems Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Pegasystems Inc.

Generated 2026-06-17T08:26:48Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202636d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 54%
Risks
Weak overall score: 4.7/10
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.7
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA24.5
Profit Mgn20.0%
ROE51.7%
Rev Growth-9.6%
Beta0.84
Dividend0.37%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV92%elevated
Max Pain$85+158.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved the 2026 Section 16 Officer/ALT Member Corporate Incentive Compensation Plan on February 9, 2026, covering executive officers. Financial goals weighted 75%, strategic goals 25%. Routine annual compensation plan adoption.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -9.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.1
Declining revenue: -10%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.3
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
6.4
Quality Rank
8.4
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 5.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.46Resistance $38.14

Price Targets

$31
$51
A.Upside+53.7%
A.R:R5.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PEGA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $30.63. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PEGA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.62 (+53.7% upside). Prior stop was $30.63. Stop-loss: $30.63.

What are the risks of investing in PEGA?

Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is PEGA overvalued or undervalued?

Pegasystems Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PEGA?

19 analysts cover PEGA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $58.

What does Pegasystems Inc. do?Pegasystems develops enterprise AI decisioning and workflow automation software (Pega Platform) for financial services,...

Pegasystems develops enterprise AI decisioning and workflow automation software (Pega Platform) for financial services, healthcare, government, insurance, and other large enterprises globally. Revenue is primarily subscription-based with $2.1B in backlog as of December 31, 2025; the company also faces ongoing trade-secret litigation with Appian Corp. where a $2B+ judgment was reversed and remanded for retrial.

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