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PAASPan American Silver Corp.Buy Wait7.0·$41.95
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Pan American Silver combines a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a wide economic moat, 49% year-over-year revenue growth, and a PEG ratio of 0.08, making it one of the strongest fundamental profiles in the dataset, though sector concentration caps and a recent 7.4% gap-up create near-term entry timing risk.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Peg Ratio→Stable
  • Gap Up Pullback Risk↓Deteriorating
  • Wide Economic Moat And Quality→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Sector Rotation edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Earnings in 6 days (2026-11-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $40.10. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $41.95. Engine's entry $40.10 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Pan American Silver Corp. engages in the exploration, mine development, extraction, processing, refining, and reclamation of mines in Chile, Peru, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, Argentina, Bolivia, and Guatemala. The Silver segment includes the La Colorada, Juanicipio, Cerro Moro,... Read more

$41.95+24.8% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#9 of 44 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield7.58%
IncomeYield1.77%(5y avg 1.66%)Payout18.34%sustainable
Entry $40.10(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $38.10Target $52.35(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst consensus$60.17+43.4%7 analysts
$52.35our TP
$41.95price
$60.17mean
$80

Wait for pullback to $40.10. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $41.95. Engine's entry $40.10 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.7 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (3.7) - hard block; Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=basic materials 2/3). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.7 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.4
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$17.4B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn32.0%
ROE22.4%
Rev Growth38.4%
Beta1.58
Dividend1.77%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.55bullish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$33-21.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.1
Volume
3.1
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Basic Materials 2/3Falling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $39.28Resistance $46.88

Price Targets

$38
$40
$52
A.Upside+24.8%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.9%
Max %1.9%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum 3.7 < 4.5 minimum
! 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (3.7) - hard block
! Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAAS stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $40.10. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $41.95. Engine's entry $40.10 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.7 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (3.7) - hard block; Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Target $52.35 (+24.8%), stop $38.10 (−10.1%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAAS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $52.35 (+24.8% upside). Target $52.35 (+24.8%), stop $38.10 (−10.1%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $38.10.

What are the risks of investing in PAAS?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is PAAS overvalued or undervalued?

Pan American Silver Corp. trades at a P/E of 12.4 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about PAAS?

11 analysts cover PAAS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $60.

What does Pan American Silver Corp. do?Pan American Silver Corp. engages in the exploration, mine development, extraction, processing, refining, and...

Pan American Silver Corp. engages in the exploration, mine development, extraction, processing, refining, and reclamation of mines in Chile, Peru, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, Argentina, Bolivia, and Guatemala. The Silver segment includes the La Colorada, Juanicipio, Cerro Moro, Huaron, and San Vicente mines. The Gold segment comprises the Jacobina, El Peñon, Timmins, Shahuindo, Minera Florida, and Dolores mines. It explores silver, gold, zinc, lead, and copper deposits. The company was formerly known as Pan American Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Pan American Silver Corp. in April 1995. Pan American Silver Corp. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.)
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