Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim (HMY) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the HMY stock price target?

Take-profit $20.17 (+28.5% upside). Target $20.17 (+28.4%), stop $14.60 (−7.6%), A.R:R 2.8:1.

Q: What are the risks of investing in HMY?

Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum; Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is HMY overvalued or undervalued?

Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 4.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about HMY?

11 analysts cover HMY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

HoldModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Basic Materials · Gold

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum.

$15.71+28.5% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#21 of 32 Gold

Stop $14.60Target $20.17(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.8:1

Analyst target$23.73+51.1%3 analysts

$20.17our TP

$15.71price

$23.73mean

$27

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 118d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Earnings estimates trending UP

High-quality business

Attractive valuation

Risks

Consecutive earnings misses (4)

Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.7

P/E (Fwd)4.5

Mkt Cap$9.5B

EV/EBITDA0.5

Profit Mgn20.1%

ROE33.5%

Rev Growth19.5%

Beta0.80

Dividend2.66%

Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish

IV64%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.715%1.45

Quality7.515%1.13

Growth7.015%1.05

Momentum1.910%0.19

Sentiment7.210%0.72

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.810%0.38

Technical Setup5.45%0.27

Risk Profile7.05%0.35

Catalyst4.55%0.23

Overall (Σ contributions)6.26

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Macd

2.0

Ma Position

2.2

Rsi

4.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.4

Quality Rank

5.5

Value Rank

9.4

Attractive P/E vs peersSuperior ROE vs peers

GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 118d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate

RSI

46 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.93Resistance $19.02

Price Targets

$15

$20

A.Upside+28.4%

A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

0/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-08-27 (118d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is HMY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $20.17 (+28.4%), stop $14.60 (−7.6%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HMY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.17 (+28.5% upside). Target $20.17 (+28.4%), stop $14.60 (−7.6%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $14.60.

What are the risks of investing in HMY?

Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum.

Is HMY overvalued or undervalued?

Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 4.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HMY?

11 analysts cover HMY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim do?Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in...

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits. It has nine underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt; and various surface source operations in South Africa. In addition, the company owns interests in the Hidden Valley, an open-pit gold and silver mine; and the Wafi-Golpu project located in Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. Further, it holds interest in Eva Copper Project located in Queensland, Australia. Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited was incorporated in 1950 and is based in Randfontein, South Africa.