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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $577.59 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%).

Northrop Grumman is a global aerospace and defense technology company organized into four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems. The company derived 84% of sales from the U.S. government in 2025, across programs including the B-21... Read more

$577.59+12.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#15 of 46 Aerospace & Defense
Stop $550.31Target $647.40(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$719.33+24.5%22 analysts
$647.40our TP
$577.59price
$719.33mean
$815

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $577.59 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5
Negative news sentiment (-0.77)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.0
P/E (Fwd)18.9
Mkt Cap$81.3B
EV/EBITDA13.2
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE28.5%
Rev Growth4.4%
Beta0.05
Dividend1.61%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.24bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$910+57.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government84%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our primary customer is the U.S. government, from which we derived 84 percent of our sales in 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Admiral Christopher W. Grady elected to Board effective February 12, 2026; appointed to Audit and Risk Committee and Policy Committee. Board size increased from 12 to 13 members. No officer departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 11, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
11 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $567.33Resistance $708.55

Price Targets

$550
$647
A.Upside+12.1%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $577.59 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $550.31. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NOC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $647.40 (+12.3% upside). Prior stop was $550.31. Stop-loss: $550.31.

What are the risks of investing in NOC?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.77).

Is NOC overvalued or undervalued?

Northrop Grumman Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 18.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NOC?

29 analysts cover NOC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $719.

What does Northrop Grumman Corporation do?Northrop Grumman is a global aerospace and defense technology company organized into four segments: Aeronautics...

Northrop Grumman is a global aerospace and defense technology company organized into four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems. The company derived 84% of sales from the U.S. government in 2025, across programs including the B-21 Raider, missile defense, and space systems. Revenue comes from cost-type and fixed-price government contracts.

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