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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $553.81: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

Northrop Grumman is a leading global defense technology company with four segments (Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, Space Systems) principally serving the U.S. Department of War and intelligence community. In fiscal 2025, the company generated $41.954B in... Read more

$553.81+14.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#5 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.62%
IncomeYield1.66%(5y avg 1.54%)Payout28.97%sustainable
Stop $530.46Target $631.47(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$701.64+26.7%22 analysts
$631.47our TP
$553.81price
$701.64mean
$815

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $553.81: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Northrop Grumman Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)18.4
Mkt Cap$79.0B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE28.5%
Rev Growth4.4%
Beta-0.11
Dividend1.66%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV36%normal
Max Pain$695+25.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government84%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales to the U.S. government accounted for 84 percent, 87 percent and 86 percent of sales during the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Board elected Admiral Christopher W. Grady as director effective February 12, 2026. Grady most recently served as 12th Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, retired Oct 2025. Board also approved expansion from 12 to 13 members and designated James S. Turley as Lead Independent Director effective May 20, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $539.00Resistance $596.50

Price Targets

$530
$631
A.Upside+14.0%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts29
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$702

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $553.81: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $530.46. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NOC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $631.47 (+14.0% upside). Prior stop was $530.46. Stop-loss: $530.46.

What are the risks of investing in NOC?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is NOC overvalued or undervalued?

Northrop Grumman Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NOC?

29 analysts cover NOC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $702.

What does Northrop Grumman Corporation do?Northrop Grumman is a leading global defense technology company with four segments (Aeronautics Systems, Defense...

Northrop Grumman is a leading global defense technology company with four segments (Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, Space Systems) principally serving the U.S. Department of War and intelligence community. In fiscal 2025, the company generated $41.954B in total sales with 84% from the U.S. government, and held $95.7B in total backlog. Key programs include the B-21 Raider, Sentinel ICBM, F-35 subsystems, and various space/missile defense programs.

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