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NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality.

NextDecade is constructing the Rio Grande LNG Facility in Brownsville, Texas, with five liquefaction trains (~30 MTPA capacity) under construction by Bechtel under lump-sum EPC contracts. The company generates no revenue; cash flows depend entirely on completing the facility and... Read more

$7.72+15.1% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#20 of 32 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Stop $7.17Target $8.88(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$9.00+16.6%4 analysts
$8.88our TP
$7.72price
$9.00mean
$7
$12

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Rio Grande LNG Facility (single-asset)
Target reached (-0.8% upside)
Quality below floor (1.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)48.1
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA-57.3
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-21.2%
Rev Growth
Beta1.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.39bullish
IV90%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicRio Grande LNG Facility (single-asset)
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our cash flow and consequently our ability to distribute earnings will be dependent upon our ability to complete Phase 1, Train 4 and Train 5 of the Rio Grande LNG Facility'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
    NextDecade entered amended and restated employment agreement with CEO/Chairman Matthew Schatzman effective April 15, 2026; term through April 15, 2029; base salary $1,000,000. No officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
2.1
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.3
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.76Resistance $9.06

Price Targets

$7
$9
A.Upside+15.0%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.0 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEXT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $7.17. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEXT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.88 (+15.1% upside). Prior stop was $7.17. Stop-loss: $7.17.

What are the risks of investing in NEXT?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Rio Grande LNG Facility (single-asset); Target reached (-0.8% upside); Quality below floor (1.0 < 4.0).

Is NEXT overvalued or undervalued?

NextDecade Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 48.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NEXT?

10 analysts cover NEXT with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $9.

What does NextDecade Corporation do?NextDecade is constructing the Rio Grande LNG Facility in Brownsville, Texas, with five liquefaction trains (~30 MTPA...

NextDecade is constructing the Rio Grande LNG Facility in Brownsville, Texas, with five liquefaction trains (~30 MTPA capacity) under construction by Bechtel under lump-sum EPC contracts. The company generates no revenue; cash flows depend entirely on completing the facility and executing ~25.3 MTPA in signed long-term LNG SPAs with 14 counterparties.

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