NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the NEXT stock price target?

Take-profit $9.06 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $8.16.

Q: What are the risks of investing in NEXT?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Bechtel; Target reached (-6.8% upside); Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0); Target reached (-6.8% upside); Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0).

Q: Is NEXT overvalued or undervalued?

NextDecade Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 125.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about NEXT?

10 analysts cover NEXT with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $9.

Q: What does NextDecade Corporation do?

NextDecade Corporation is constructing and developing the Rio Grande LNG Facility near Brownsville, Texas, a 5-train natural gas liquefaction and export project with total expected capacity of ~30 MTPA. Revenue will come from long-term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements with 14 counterparties for ~25.3 MTPA; construction is performed by Bechtel under lump-sum EPC contracts. The company currently generates no revenue and is pre-operational, with first commercial deliveries tied to train completion.

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 1 days ago (May 19, 2026, 7:26 AM ET)

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

$8.65+3.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#22 of 31 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-203.27%

Stop $8.16Target $9.06(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1

Analyst target$9.40+8.7%5 analysts

$9.06our TP

$8.65price

$9.40mean

$12

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — NextDecade Corporation

Latest news

Citigroup Initiates Coverage On NextDecade with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $11 — benzinga May 13, 2026 positive
Jim Cramer: This Financial Stock Is A Buy, Scotts Miracle-Gro Is 'Too Risky' — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
NextDecade Q1 EPS $(0.51) Misses $(0.49) Estimate — benzinga May 1, 2026 negative
NextDecade Says Strong Construction Progress Continues At Rio Grande LNG; Expect First Gas Into Rio Grande LNG Facility — benzinga May 1, 2026 positive
Earnings Scheduled For May 1, 2026 — benzinga May 1, 2026 neutral

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Supplier: Bechtel

Target reached (-6.8% upside)

Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)125.3

Mkt Cap$2.3B

EV/EBITDA-61.7

Profit Mgn0.0%

ROE-18.6%

Rev Growth—

Beta1.65

DividendNone

Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish

IV75%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHSupplierBechtel
10-K Item 1: 'We have entered into fully wrapped, lump-sum turnkey contracts with Bechtel, a well-established and reputable LNG engineering and construction firm, for the engineering, procurement, and construction of Phase 1, Train 4, and Train 5'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
NextDecade entered into amended and restated employment agreement with Matthew Schatzman, Chairman and CEO, effective immediately. Agreement provides initial term through April 15, 2029 with automatic one-year extensions. Annual base salary $1,000,000.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value3.715%0.56

Quality0.815%0.12

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum6.910%0.69

Sentiment6.410%0.64

Insider Activity5.810%0.58

Peer Rank2.610%0.26

Technical Setup3.55%0.18

Risk Profile3.45%0.17

Catalyst4.65%0.23

Overall (Σ contributions)4.92

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Gross Margin

0.0

Operating Margin

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Current Ratio

1.6

Piotroski F

2.2

Moat

3.2

Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

0.3

Value Rank

5.0

Growth Rank

5.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger

1.5

Support Resistance

2.1

52w Position

4.5

Gap

6.0

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Forward Pe

1.0

Analyst Target

4.0

Peg Ratio

6.2

Forward P/E: 125.3xPEG: 1.19

GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

66 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $6.98Resistance $9.24

Price Targets

A.Upside+4.7%

A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.8% upside)

! Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is NEXT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $8.16. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEXT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.06 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $8.16. Stop-loss: $8.16.

What are the risks of investing in NEXT?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Bechtel; Target reached (-6.8% upside); Quality below floor (0.8 < 4.0).

Is NEXT overvalued or undervalued?

NextDecade Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 125.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NEXT?

10 analysts cover NEXT with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $9.

What does NextDecade Corporation do?NextDecade Corporation is constructing and developing the Rio Grande LNG Facility near Brownsville, Texas, a 5-train...

NextDecade Corporation is constructing and developing the Rio Grande LNG Facility near Brownsville, Texas, a 5-train natural gas liquefaction and export project with total expected capacity of ~30 MTPA. Revenue will come from long-term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements with 14 counterparties for ~25.3 MTPA; construction is performed by Bechtel under lump-sum EPC contracts. The company currently generates no revenue and is pre-operational, with first commercial deliveries tied to train completion.