Value
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
NEXT · Why this verdict
Why NextDecade (NEXT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NextDecade Corporation is a pre-revenue LNG development company whose entire value rests on the Rio Grande LNG facility reaching completion, but cash-burning operations, a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2, and an elevated put/call ratio of 3.43 signal that markets are pricing significant execution risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
NextDecade's entire business is concentrated in the Rio Grande LNG Facility with Bechtel as the sole construction contractor, meaning any delay, cost overrun, or contractor issue would directly impair the company's only revenue-generating asset. Bear case | Construction milestones progress on schedule with no publicly announced material delays or cost overruns above 15% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSingle-asset concentration in a large-scale LNG project is typical for development-stage energy companies, and Bechtel's track record provides some assurance of execution capability. | ||
NextDecade is cash-burning with a Piotroski F-Score of only 2 out of 9, indicating multiple balance-sheet and earnings-quality warning signals, and quality scores well below the minimum threshold for investment-grade positioning. Quality breakdown | The company secures additional financing or off-take agreements that extend its cash runway beyond 18 months, reducing dilution risk. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDevelopment-stage LNG companies are expected to burn cash during construction; the Piotroski score may be temporarily depressed by the pre-revenue nature of the business. | ||
Short interest stands at 14% of float and the put/call ratio is 3.43, reflecting strong institutional skepticism about the company's ability to complete its LNG project on budget and on time. Key risks | Short interest declines below 10% and put/call ratio falls below 2.0 as project execution milestones are met over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh short interest in a development-stage company can create short-squeeze dynamics if positive news triggers covering pressure, providing upside optionality for early buyers. | ||
Analysts maintain a 22% upside target to consensus price, reflecting optimism about LNG demand fundamentals and the long-term value of a completed Rio Grande LNG terminal. Sentiment breakdown | At least one analyst raises their price target above $10 within 12 months following a positive project milestone announcement. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterA forward P/E of 110x for a company with no current revenues implies that analyst targets are based on speculative terminal value assumptions rather than near-term earnings fundamentals. | ||
NextDecade's entire business is concentrated in the Rio Grande LNG Facility with Bechtel as the sole construction contractor, meaning any delay, cost overrun, or contractor issue would directly impair the company's only revenue-generating asset.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Construction milestones progress on schedule with no publicly announced material delays or cost overruns above 15% over the next 12 months.
CounterSingle-asset concentration in a large-scale LNG project is typical for development-stage energy companies, and Bechtel's track record provides some assurance of execution capability.
NextDecade is cash-burning with a Piotroski F-Score of only 2 out of 9, indicating multiple balance-sheet and earnings-quality warning signals, and quality scores well below the minimum threshold for investment-grade positioning.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The company secures additional financing or off-take agreements that extend its cash runway beyond 18 months, reducing dilution risk.
CounterDevelopment-stage LNG companies are expected to burn cash during construction; the Piotroski score may be temporarily depressed by the pre-revenue nature of the business.
Short interest stands at 14% of float and the put/call ratio is 3.43, reflecting strong institutional skepticism about the company's ability to complete its LNG project on budget and on time.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 10% and put/call ratio falls below 2.0 as project execution milestones are met over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh short interest in a development-stage company can create short-squeeze dynamics if positive news triggers covering pressure, providing upside optionality for early buyers.
Analysts maintain a 22% upside target to consensus price, reflecting optimism about LNG demand fundamentals and the long-term value of a completed Rio Grande LNG terminal.
Tripped↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- At least one analyst raises their price target above $10 within 12 months following a positive project milestone announcement.
CounterA forward P/E of 110x for a company with no current revenues implies that analyst targets are based on speculative terminal value assumptions rather than near-term earnings fundamentals.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning (FCF negative)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 1.1 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.0 |
| days to cover | 1.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 1.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 16%
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:114d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.60
Upside
+21.1%
Downside
13.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.39>1.3, MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.9<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.1 and asymmetric R:R of 1.60.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Sentiment at 7.4, and Technical at 5.7; the weakest are Quality at 1.4, Catalyst at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.60 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Single Asset Construction Risk
Trip ifConstruction cost estimate for the Rio Grande facility increases more than 20% above original budget.
- P2Cash Burn Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifCash balance falls below 6 months of projected operating expenses at the burn rate reported in the most recent quarter.
- P3High Short Interest Bearish Options
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% of float or put/call ratio exceeds 5.0.
- P4Analyst Upside SentimentTripped
Trip ifPrice drops below $7.35 stop-loss level or analyst consensus target declines below $8.