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nCino, Inc. (NCNO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $15.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

nCino provides a cloud-based banking intelligence platform built on Salesforce, serving over 2,700 financial institutions globally with loan origination, account opening, onboarding, and credit monitoring solutions. Revenue of $594.8M in fiscal 2026 comes primarily from... Read more

$15.07+36.7% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#96 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield8.79%
Stop $14.04Target $20.57(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$23.64+56.9%14 analysts
$20.57our TP
$15.07price
$23.64mean
$32

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $15.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — nCino, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 37%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)302.2
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA32.7
Profit Mgn0.9%
ROE0.9%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.72
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.03bullish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$10-33.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierSalesforce Platform
    10-K Item 1A: 'Fundamental elements of the nCino Platform are built on the Salesforce Platform and we rely on our agreement with Salesforce to provide this solution to our customers.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.5
Quality Rank
2.9
Value Rank
3.6

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Obv
1.9
Rsi
3.0
Volume
5.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.47Resistance $18.81

Price Targets

$14
$21
A.Upside+36.5%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-27 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NCNO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $15.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $14.04. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the NCNO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.57 (+36.7% upside). Prior stop was $14.04. Stop-loss: $14.04.

What are the risks of investing in NCNO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce Platform; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is NCNO overvalued or undervalued?

nCino, Inc. trades at a P/E of 302.2 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NCNO?

23 analysts cover NCNO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $24.

What does nCino, Inc. do?nCino provides a cloud-based banking intelligence platform built on Salesforce, serving over 2,700 financial...

nCino provides a cloud-based banking intelligence platform built on Salesforce, serving over 2,700 financial institutions globally with loan origination, account opening, onboarding, and credit monitoring solutions. Revenue of $594.8M in fiscal 2026 comes primarily from multi-year subscription contracts; no single customer exceeded 10% of revenue.

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