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SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

nCino has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 178%, generates free cash flow at 1,000% of net income (meaning it converts far more cash than GAAP earnings suggest), and trades with 36% analyst upside at a PEG of 0.07 — yet the stock is in a confirmed downtrend below its 200-day moving average with a 15% short interest and a highly concentrated dependency on Salesforce as its core infrastructure.

Thesis pillars

  • Salesforce Dependency Concentration Risk→Stable
  • Exceptional Fcf Conversion Perfect Beats→Stable
  • Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 31, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

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nCino, Inc. (NCNO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthShortModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce.

nCino provides a cloud-based platform for financial institutions covering lending, account opening, onboarding, and credit monitoring, deployed in more than 25 countries. Revenue reached $594.8 million in fiscal 2026, earned through subscriptions priced to FI asset size, with... Read more

$23.44-9.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#95 of 116 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.11%
Stop $21.80Analyst target $21.24(reached)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst consensus$24.42+4.2%12 analysts with price targets
$23.44price
$24.42mean
$17
$28

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About nCino, Inc.

About nCino, Inc.

nCino's cloud banking platform reached $594.8 million in revenue for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026, up from $476.5 million in fiscal 2024, serving more than 2,700 customers across 25-plus countries, including global institutions such as Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Barclays, Santander, and TD Bank. Research and development investment of $127.5 million represented 21.4% of revenues for the period. Of the customer base, 620 accounts generated more than $100,000 in subscription revenues and 114 exceeded $1.0 million.

nCino earns revenue through subscriptions that shifted from seat-based to an asset-based pricing framework beginning in fiscal 2025, with fees calibrated to the dollar value of assets in the lines of business supported by the platform and AI capability consumption. Core revenue comes from licensing solutions for commercial lending, small business and consumer loan origination, account opening, onboarding, credit monitoring, and analytics. No single customer exceeded 10% of total revenues in fiscal 2026. The platform runs on Salesforce infrastructure — an agreement originally signed in 2011 and extended through January 31, 2031 — supplemented by Amazon Web Services for data architecture. Implementation is handled directly by nCino for regional and community banks and through system integrators such as Accenture, Deloitte, and PwC for larger institutions. Competition comes primarily from point solution vendors and, increasingly, from AI-focused fintech startups that target specific banking workflows but typically lack nCino's regulatory compliance track record and FI implementation history.

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The Salesforce Platform dependency represents a structural constraint on nCino's technical architecture. The current agreement, amended December 2023, permits early termination in cases of material breach, bankruptcy, a change of control in favor of a direct competitor, or intellectual property infringement — any of which could disrupt the hosting infrastructure that underlies Salesforce-based solutions. The 10-K also identifies a secondary infrastructure risk: data centers operated by Salesforce, AWS, and other third parties, if disrupted, could expose nCino to liability and service outages for mission-critical FI customers.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From nCino, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

No fresh coverage since Aug 26, 2026

Recent Developments — nCino, Inc.

Latest item Aug 26, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:12Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Dec 2, 202627d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)73.3
P/E (Fwd)14.8
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA29.9
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE3.9%
Rev Growth8.2%
Beta0.75
DividendNone
Analysts with ratings22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierSalesforce
    10-K Item 1A: 'Fundamental elements of the nCino Platform are built on the Salesforce Platform and we rely on our agreement with Salesforce to provide this solution to our customers.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.7
Bollinger
2.1
52w Position
7.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.8
Value Rank
3.6
Quality Rank
3.8
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.92Resistance $23.76

Price Targets

A.Upside-9.4%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-02 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NCNO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $21.80. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NCNO stock price target?

Analyst target $21.24 reached (−9.4% from $23.44); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $21.80. Stop-loss: $21.80.

What are the risks of investing in NCNO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Is NCNO overvalued or undervalued?

nCino, Inc. trades at a P/E of 73.3 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NCNO?

22 analysts rate NCNO, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 12 analysts publish price targets averaging $24.

What does nCino, Inc. do?nCino provides a cloud-based platform for financial institutions covering lending, account opening, onboarding, and...

nCino provides a cloud-based platform for financial institutions covering lending, account opening, onboarding, and credit monitoring, deployed in more than 25 countries. Revenue reached $594.8 million in fiscal 2026, earned through subscriptions priced to FI asset size, with over 2,700 customers globally. Core platform elements are built on Salesforce infrastructure under an agreement expiring January 2031.

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