nCino has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 178%, generates free cash flow at 1,000% of net income (meaning it converts far more cash than GAAP earnings suggest), and trades with 36% analyst upside at a PEG of 0.07 — yet the stock is in a confirmed downtrend below its 200-day moving average with a 15% short interest and a highly concentrated dependency on Salesforce as its core infrastructure.
Thesis pillars
- Salesforce Dependency Concentration Risk→Stable
- Exceptional Fcf Conversion Perfect Beats→Stable
- Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
nCino, Inc. (NCNO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. At $18.13, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Elevated risk factors; Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce.
nCino provides a cloud-based platform for financial institutions covering lending, account opening, onboarding, and credit monitoring, deployed in more than 25 countries. Revenue reached $594.8 million in fiscal 2026, earned through subscriptions priced to FI asset size, with... Read more
Sell if holding. At $18.13, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Elevated risk factors; Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About nCino, Inc.
About nCino, Inc.
nCino's cloud banking platform reached $594.8 million in revenue for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026, up from $476.5 million in fiscal 2024, serving more than 2,700 customers across 25-plus countries, including global institutions such as Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Barclays, Santander, and TD Bank. Research and development investment of $127.5 million represented 21.4% of revenues for the period. Of the customer base, 620 accounts generated more than $100,000 in subscription revenues and 114 exceeded $1.0 million.
nCino earns revenue through subscriptions that shifted from seat-based to an asset-based pricing framework beginning in fiscal 2025, with fees calibrated to the dollar value of assets in the lines of business supported by the platform and AI capability consumption. Core revenue comes from licensing solutions for commercial lending, small business and consumer loan origination, account opening, onboarding, credit monitoring, and analytics. No single customer exceeded 10% of total revenues in fiscal 2026. The platform runs on Salesforce infrastructure — an agreement originally signed in 2011 and extended through January 31, 2031 — supplemented by Amazon Web Services for data architecture. Implementation is handled directly by nCino for regional and community banks and through system integrators such as Accenture, Deloitte, and PwC for larger institutions. Competition comes primarily from point solution vendors and, increasingly, from AI-focused fintech startups that target specific banking workflows but typically lack nCino's regulatory compliance track record and FI implementation history.
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The Salesforce Platform dependency represents a structural constraint on nCino's technical architecture. The current agreement, amended December 2023, permits early termination in cases of material breach, bankruptcy, a change of control in favor of a direct competitor, or intellectual property infringement — any of which could disrupt the hosting infrastructure that underlies Salesforce-based solutions. The 10-K also identifies a secondary infrastructure risk: data centers operated by Salesforce, AWS, and other third parties, if disrupted, could expose nCino to liability and service outages for mission-critical FI customers.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From nCino, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — nCino, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS nCino (NCNO) Beats Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS nCino (NCNO) Beats Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance UK — Yahoo Finance UK positive
- NEWS nCino (NASDAQ:NCNO) Posts Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q1 CY2026, Stock Jumps 11.2% - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS nCino (NCNO) Exceeds Q1 Revenue Expectations with $159.41 Millio - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS nCino (NASDAQ:NCNO) Posts Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q1 CY2026, Stock Jumps 11.2% - FinancialContent — FinancialContent positive
Generated 2026-07-07T13:32:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierSalesforce10-K Item 1A: 'Fundamental elements of the nCino Platform are built on the Salesforce Platform and we rely on our agreement with Salesforce to provide this solution to our customers.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $18.13, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Elevated risk factors; Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Prior stop was $16.87. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $20.33 (+12.1% upside). Prior stop was $16.87. Stop-loss: $16.87.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Salesforce; Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
nCino, Inc. trades at a P/E of 147.9 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover NCNO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $23.
What does nCino, Inc. do?nCino provides a cloud-based platform for financial institutions covering lending, account opening, onboarding, and...
nCino provides a cloud-based platform for financial institutions covering lending, account opening, onboarding, and credit monitoring, deployed in more than 25 countries. Revenue reached $594.8 million in fiscal 2026, earned through subscriptions priced to FI asset size, with over 2,700 customers globally. Core platform elements are built on Salesforce infrastructure under an agreement expiring January 2031.