National Vision offers a compelling value setup — a PEG of 0.14 and a forward multiple of 15.2x against a recent earnings track record featuring 46% average upside surprise — but is weighed down by a confirmed technical downtrend and 20% short interest. The risk/reward geometry of roughly 42% upside against 7% downside at nearly 6-to-1 creates an asymmetric opportunity if business momentum can overcome the bearish technical and sentiment overhang.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Recent Earnings Execution↓Deteriorating
- Cash Conversion Quality Gap→Stable
- Compelling Valuation Very Low Peg↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 4, 2026· older than 90 days
National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $17.94: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
National Vision Holdings operates 1,250 retail optical stores across four brands — America's Best (1,057 locations), Eyeglass World (122 locations), and two Vista Optical host brands — throughout the United States. The company sells eye exams, eyeglasses, and contact lenses,... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $17.94: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About National Vision Holdings, Inc.
About National Vision Holdings, Inc.
National Vision Holdings operated 1,250 retail optical stores across four brands at fiscal year-end January 3, 2026, with America's Best at 1,057 locations forming the core owned brand and Eyeglass World at 122 locations as the secondary format. Managed care insurance billing represented 42% of revenues from continuing operations in 2025, and omni-channel plus e-commerce platforms contributed approximately 7% of net revenue. The company opened 33 new stores in fiscal 2025 and targets 30 to 35 openings in fiscal 2026, with plans to reaccelerate to roughly 60 openings per year beginning 2028 for a total of approximately 240 new stores through 2030.
National Vision earns revenue through direct retail sales of frames and lenses, contact lens sales, and eye exam services provided by employed or contracted optometrists. The Eyecare Club subscription program — with approximately 1.3 million active members at January 3, 2026 — offers two eye exams per year plus a 10% discount for a one-time fixed multi-year fee, driving repeat traffic and contact lens refills. Supply is concentrated: EssilorLuxottica holds the sole and exclusive right to supply certain eyeglass lenses to National Vision under an agreement that runs through May 2028, while CooperVision manufactures the company's private label contact lens brands (Sofmed and Natural Eyes HydraWear). New store economics target a cash investment of $0.4 million to $0.6 million per location, with fifth-year sales of $1.5 million to $1.7 million and capital payback in three to five years. Competition spans independent optical retailers (roughly half the industry), mass merchants, warehouse clubs, specialty chains, and online contact lens sellers.
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National Vision's managed care exposure at 42% of continuing operations revenues creates a dependency on vision insurance network admissions. The 10-K acknowledges that competition in managed care is based on price and network density and that the company may face heightened challenges to be admitted or to maintain status in managed care provider networks. Separately, the EssilorLuxottica sole-supply lens agreement expires in May 2028, creating a renegotiation event that could affect lens cost structure if renewal terms shift — a risk that compounds the managed care exposure since lens margin is a key driver of the value proposition to insurance-paying customers.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
From National Vision Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Aug 12, 2026
Recent Developments — National Vision Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Why is National Vision stock climbing today? By Investing.com - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada Aug 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (EYE) National Vision Holdings, Inc. Posts Q2 Adjusted EPS $0.25 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.18 - ma — marketscreener.com Aug 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS National Vision Q2 revenue rises to $498.8 million - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Aug 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS EYE|National Vision Holdings Inc|Price:22.060|Chg%:-0.370 - TradingKey — TradingKey Aug 12, 2026 neutral
- NEWS National Vision: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - The Rome News-Tribune — The Rome News-Tribune Aug 12, 2026 neutral
Latest item Aug 12, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:29Z.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $17.94: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Prior stop was $16.68. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $23.93 (+33.4% upside). Prior stop was $16.68. Stop-loss: $16.68.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
National Vision Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.9 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts rate EYE, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 10 analysts publish price targets averaging $28.
What does National Vision Holdings, Inc. do?National Vision Holdings operates 1,250 retail optical stores across four brands — America's Best (1,057 locations),...
National Vision Holdings operates 1,250 retail optical stores across four brands — America's Best (1,057 locations), Eyeglass World (122 locations), and two Vista Optical host brands — throughout the United States. The company sells eye exams, eyeglasses, and contact lenses, with managed care insurance billing representing 42% of revenues from continuing operations in 2025. EssilorLuxottica holds the sole and exclusive right to supply certain eyeglass lenses under a contract running through May 2028.