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National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.92: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.56; Below-average business quality.

National Vision is a U.S. optical retail chain operating 1,100+ stores under America's Best, Eyeglass World, and other brands, offering affordable eye exams and eyewear. Revenue comes from retail optical product sales and eye care services; managed care represented 42% of... Read more

$16.92+50.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield9.21%
Stop $15.74Target $25.47(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$29.27+73.0%11 analysts
$25.47our TP
$16.92price
$29.27mean
$39

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.92: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.56; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — National Vision Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: EssilorLuxottica
Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.8%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.59% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.8
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn2.3%
ROE5.4%
Rev Growth6.6%
Beta1.18
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.56bearish
IV78%elevated
Max Pain$13-26.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierEssilorLuxottica
    10-K Item 1: 'Under our agreement with EssilorLuxottica, EssilorLuxottica has the sole and exclusive right to supply certain eyeglass lenses to us.'
  • MEDIUMCustomermanaged care42%
    10-K Item 1: 'our managed care business represented 42% of our revenues from continuing operations'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Volume
6.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Volatile — 9.5% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.3
Short Interest
0.9
Put Call
2.9
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
3.3
Beta
6.3
Debt Equity
6.4
High short interest: 18%Elevated put/call: 1.56High IV: 78%Above max pain $12Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.6
Value Rank
3.6
Growth Rank
5.6
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.75Resistance $25.60

Price Targets

$16
$25
A.Upside+50.5%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.8%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.59% of cap)
! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EYE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.92: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.56; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $15.74. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EYE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.47 (+50.5% upside). Prior stop was $15.74. Stop-loss: $15.74.

What are the risks of investing in EYE?

Concentration risk — Supplier: EssilorLuxottica; Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 2.8%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.59% of cap).

Is EYE overvalued or undervalued?

National Vision Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.8 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EYE?

16 analysts cover EYE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $29.

What does National Vision Holdings, Inc. do?National Vision is a U.S. optical retail chain operating 1,100+ stores under America's Best, Eyeglass World, and other...

National Vision is a U.S. optical retail chain operating 1,100+ stores under America's Best, Eyeglass World, and other brands, offering affordable eye exams and eyewear. Revenue comes from retail optical product sales and eye care services; managed care represented 42% of revenues in 2025. EssilorLuxottica holds exclusive rights to supply certain eyeglass lenses.

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