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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.77 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.7% away).

Murphy Oil is a global E&P company producing crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas from the Gulf of America, Eagle Ford Shale, and Canada (Tupper Montney, Kaybob Duvernay), with 2025 production of 188,682 BOEPD. Revenue comes from commodity sales priced off WTI, Brent, and regional... Read more

$41.77+1.7% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#34 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
Stop $39.03Target $42.47(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$41.93+0.4%14 analysts
$42.47our TP
$41.77price
$41.93mean
$33
$63

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.77 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.7% away)
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)58.1
P/E (Fwd)11.1
Mkt Cap$6.0B
EV/EBITDA5.5
Profit Mgn3.9%
ROE2.6%
Rev Growth-8.4%
Beta0.58
Dividend3.23%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV71%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -8.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.4
Declining revenue: -8%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.8
Value Rank
3.4
Growth Rank
3.4
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.31Resistance $43.34

Price Targets

$39
$42
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MUR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.77 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $39.03. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MUR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.47 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $39.03. Stop-loss: $39.03.

What are the risks of investing in MUR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away); Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is MUR overvalued or undervalued?

Murphy Oil Corporation trades at a P/E of 58.1 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MUR?

23 analysts cover MUR with a consensus score of 3.2/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Murphy Oil Corporation do?Murphy Oil is a global E&P company producing crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas from the Gulf of America, Eagle Ford...

Murphy Oil is a global E&P company producing crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas from the Gulf of America, Eagle Ford Shale, and Canada (Tupper Montney, Kaybob Duvernay), with 2025 production of 188,682 BOEPD. Revenue comes from commodity sales priced off WTI, Brent, and regional benchmarks.

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