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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.16× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Murphy Oil Corporation is a global E&P company producing oil, natural gas, and NGLs primarily in the U.S. Gulf of America and Eagle Ford Shale, as well as onshore Canada (Tupper Montney, Kaybob Duvernay) and offshore Canada and Brunei. The company produced 188,682 BOE/day in... Read more

$40.80+1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#27 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.85%
IncomeYield3.34%(5y avg 2.94%)Payout224.58%at-risk
Stop $37.61Target $41.20(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$42.79+4.9%14 analysts
$41.20our TP
$40.80price
$42.79mean
$36
$63

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.16× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=11.2x,ratio=0.16x. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Murphy Oil Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.16× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)68.5
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$5.8B
EV/EBITDA5.2
Profit Mgn3.1%
ROE2.2%
Rev Growth8.9%
Beta0.54
Dividend3.34%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.3
Value Rank
3.7
Growth Rank
4.6

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Erm Sentiment
0.0
Analyst Rating
5.0
Price Target
5.9
Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-14.2%)
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=11.2x,ratio=0.16xMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.84Resistance $42.04

Price Targets

$38
$41
A.Upside+1.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=11.2x,ratio=0.16x

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MUR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.16× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $41.20 (+1.0%), stop $37.61 (−8.5%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MUR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.20 (+1.9% upside). Target $41.20 (+1.0%), stop $37.61 (−8.5%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $37.61.

What are the risks of investing in MUR?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.16× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is MUR overvalued or undervalued?

Murphy Oil Corporation trades at a P/E of 68.5 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MUR?

25 analysts cover MUR with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Murphy Oil Corporation do?Murphy Oil Corporation is a global E&P company producing oil, natural gas, and NGLs primarily in the U.S. Gulf of...

Murphy Oil Corporation is a global E&P company producing oil, natural gas, and NGLs primarily in the U.S. Gulf of America and Eagle Ford Shale, as well as onshore Canada (Tupper Montney, Kaybob Duvernay) and offshore Canada and Brunei. The company produced 188,682 BOE/day in 2025 with total proved reserves of 730 MMBOE; revenue comes from commodity sales marketed through operating partners.

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