Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. At $35.70, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.17× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced..
Murphy Oil Corporation is a global E&P company producing crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs from operations in the U.S. Gulf of America and Eagle Ford Shale, plus onshore and offshore Canada. The company produced 188,682 BOEPD in 2025, with total proved reserves of 730 MMBOE; the... Read more
Sell if holding. At $35.70, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.17× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=10.4x,ratio=0.17x. Suitability: moderate.
About Murphy Oil Corporation
About Murphy Oil Corporation
Murphy Oil produced 188,682 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 across U.S., Canadian, and international operations, with the Gulf of America and Eagle Ford Shale together accounting for all U.S. output. Total proved reserves stood at 730 MMBOE at December 31, 2025, including 311.1 MMBOE of proved undeveloped reserves — roughly 43% of the total. The U.S. contributed 90% of worldwide liquids production, and WTI crude averaged $64.81 per barrel in 2025, down from $75.72 in 2024.
Murphy earns through crude oil, NGL, and natural gas sales across spot and forward fixed-price contracts. In the Gulf of America, approximately 65% of total U.S. hydrocarbon production came from offshore fields in 2025, of which 91% derived from ten named fields including the operated Mormont, Khaleesi, Cascade and Chinook, and Marmalard fields, along with non-operated St. Malo, Kodiak, and Lucius fields. The Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas contributed the remaining 35% of U.S. output, producing 32,056 BBL of liquids per day and 33 MMCF of natural gas per day. Canada added 3,479 BBL of liquids per day and 423 MMCF of natural gas per day from the Tupper Montney (100% working interest) and Kaybob Duvernay (70% working interest). Canadian natural gas pricing is linked to the Alberta Energy Company (AECO) benchmark, which averaged C$1.68 per MCF in 2025, well below the NYMEX average of $3.54 per MMBTU. Murphy spent approximately $690 million in 2025 converting proved undeveloped reserves to proved developed status.
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Murphy's proved reserve base is concentrated in two basins: the Gulf of America (112.1 million barrels of liquids and 69.2 BCF of natural gas in proved reserves) and the U.S. Onshore Eagle Ford Shale (137.9 million barrels of liquids and 182.0 BCF of gas). The 10-K notes that the U.S. hurricane season runs from June through November and that storms in the Gulf of America could lead to field shutdowns and damages that the company's insurance may not fully cover due to policy deductibles and potential coverage limits. Approximately 47% of natural gas proved reserves, 41% of NGL, and 36% of crude oil proved reserves remain undeveloped as of year-end 2025, each requiring future annual capital of $450 million to $800 million to reclassify to proved developed status.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From Murphy Oil Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Murphy Oil Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Murphy Oil Corp (MUR) Stock Up 4.5% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 63/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS SM Energy, ProFrac, and Murphy Oil Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS SM Energy, ProFrac, and Murphy Oil Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS SM Energy, ProFrac, and Murphy Oil Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Earnings estimates rising for Murphy Oil (MUR): Will it gain? - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-06-17T09:07:23Z.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
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Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $35.70, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.17× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $34.13. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $39.96 (+11.9% upside). Prior stop was $34.13. Stop-loss: $34.13.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.17× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Negative momentum.
Murphy Oil Corporation trades at a P/E of 61.8 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover MUR with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $44.
What does Murphy Oil Corporation do?Murphy Oil Corporation is a global E&P company producing crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs from operations in the U.S....
Murphy Oil Corporation is a global E&P company producing crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs from operations in the U.S. Gulf of America and Eagle Ford Shale, plus onshore and offshore Canada. The company produced 188,682 BOEPD in 2025, with total proved reserves of 730 MMBOE; the U.S. contributed 90% of worldwide liquids production.