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MCWMister Car Wash, Inc.Sell5.3·$7.07-0.42%
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Mister Car Wash, Inc. (MCW) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.07 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: UWC subscription program (76.0%).

Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand with 548 locations in 21 states, offering express exterior and interior cleaning services. Revenue is driven by its Unlimited Wash Club subscription program (~2.3 million members), which accounted for 76% of total wash sales... Read more

$7.07-1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#9 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-2.05%
Stop $7.02Target $7.02(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$7.00-1.0%3 analysts
Range unavailable (3 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.07 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: UWC subscription program (76.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Mister Car Wash, Inc.

About Mister Car Wash, Inc.

Mister Car Wash, the largest national car wash brand by location count, operated 548 locations across 21 states at December 31, 2025, comprising 485 express exterior locations and 63 interior cleaning locations. The Unlimited Wash Club subscription program accounted for 76% of total wash sales in 2025 — up from 74% in 2024 — with approximately 2.3 million members who spend an estimated seven times more annually than retail customers. The company opened 29 greenfield locations during 2025.

Mister Car Wash generates revenue through monthly UWC memberships and single-visit retail transactions. UWC members can cancel at any time, and the company estimates average member spend at more than four times the retail customer. As of December 31, 2025, approximately 6,836 team members supported operations — a 3% increase from the prior year, driven by 34 net new locations. Car wash equipment and chemicals are sourced from a limited number of suppliers, with minimal on-site inventory; a supply disruption could reduce sales and profit margins. The car wash industry is highly fragmented, with competition from national, regional, and local operators as well as gasoline and convenience retailers. Lease obligations cover a significant share of the store base; non-cancelable obligations continue even if a location closes, and landlord consent is required for assignment or sublease.

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Consumer purchases of car washes decline during periods when economic conditions are unstable or weak, exposing the company to discretionary-spending pressure even through its subscription model, since UWC members can cancel at any time. In May 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that its merger with Boson Merger Sub, Inc. — affiliates of Leonard Green & Partners — closed on May 19, 2026, converting Mister Car Wash into a privately held company at $7.00 per share cash consideration and removing it from Nasdaq.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

From Mister Car Wash, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — Mister Car Wash, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K May 19, 2026 HIGH Item 2.01: Merger with Boson Merger Sub, Inc. closed May 19, 2026. Mister Car Wash became wholly-owned subsidiary of MCW Parent, LP, controlled by funds affiliated with Leonard Green & Partners, L.P. Shareholders received $7.00 per share cash; common stock delisting from Nasdaq follows.

Generated 2026-06-17T09:12:25Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: UWC subscription program (76.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.8% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.5
P/E (Fwd)13.1
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn10.3%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth6.2%
Beta1.29
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.71bearish

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductUWC subscription program76%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our UWC subscription program accounted for 76% of our total wash sales in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 1.01HIGH
    Mister Car Wash entered Agreement and Plan of Merger with MCW Parent, LP (LGP affiliates) on February 17, 2026, pursuant to which shareholders will receive $7.00/share cash. LGP affiliates held ~67% of shares and provided written consent. Expected to close first half 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $6.98Resistance $7.16

Price Targets

$7
$7
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.07 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: UWC subscription program (76.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $7.02. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.02 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $7.02. Stop-loss: $7.02.

What are the risks of investing in MCW?

Concentration risk — Product: UWC subscription program (76.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.8% away).

Is MCW overvalued or undervalued?

Mister Car Wash, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.5 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCW?

17 analysts cover MCW with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $7.

What does Mister Car Wash, Inc. do?Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand with 548 locations in 21 states, offering express exterior and...

Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand with 548 locations in 21 states, offering express exterior and interior cleaning services. Revenue is driven by its Unlimited Wash Club subscription program (~2.3 million members), which accounted for 76% of total wash sales in 2025; in February 2026 the company entered a definitive merger agreement to go private at $7.00/share via LGP affiliates.

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