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Mister Car Wash, Inc. (MCW) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: UWC subscription program (76.0%).

Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand with 548 locations in 21 states, offering express exterior and interior cleaning services. Revenue is driven by its Unlimited Wash Club subscription program (~2.3 million members), which accounted for 76% of total wash sales... Read more

$7.07-1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#7 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-2.05%
Stop $7.02Target $7.02(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$7.06-0.2%9 analysts
$7.02our TP
$7.07price
$7.06mean
$7
$8

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: UWC subscription program (76.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Mister Car Wash, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: UWC subscription program (76.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.8% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.5
P/E (Fwd)13.1
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn10.3%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth6.2%
Beta1.29
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
Max Pain$5-29.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductUWC subscription program76%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our UWC subscription program accounted for 76% of our total wash sales in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 1.01HIGH
    Mister Car Wash entered Agreement and Plan of Merger with MCW Parent, LP (LGP affiliates) on February 17, 2026, pursuant to which shareholders will receive $7.00/share cash. LGP affiliates held ~67% of shares and provided written consent. Expected to close first half 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $6.98Resistance $7.16

Price Targets

$7
$7
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: UWC subscription program (76.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $7.02. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the MCW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.02 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $7.02. Stop-loss: $7.02.

What are the risks of investing in MCW?

Concentration risk — Product: UWC subscription program (76.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.8% away).

Is MCW overvalued or undervalued?

Mister Car Wash, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.5 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCW?

17 analysts cover MCW with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $7.

What does Mister Car Wash, Inc. do?Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand with 548 locations in 21 states, offering express exterior and...

Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand with 548 locations in 21 states, offering express exterior and interior cleaning services. Revenue is driven by its Unlimited Wash Club subscription program (~2.3 million members), which accounted for 76% of total wash sales in 2025; in February 2026 the company entered a definitive merger agreement to go private at $7.00/share via LGP affiliates.

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