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DRVNDriven Brands Holdings Inc.Sell5.7·$12.31
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Attractive valuation multiples — including a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times and a PEG ratio below 1 — and a strong three-quarter earnings beat streak sit alongside a confirmed technical downtrend and material leverage, leaving the stock in an unresolved tension between fundamental value and price momentum that a thin risk/reward ratio captures precisely.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Earnings Beat Pattern↓Deteriorating
  • Cheap Valuation Best In Class Margins↓Deteriorating
  • Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueShortHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.31: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Driven Brands, the largest automotive services company in North America by location count, operates 4,200+ locations in 49 U.S. states and Canada under brands including Take 5 Oil Change, Meineke, Maaco, CARSTAR, and AutoGlassNow. The company generated approximately $1.9 billion... Read more

$12.31+13.7% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#5 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield13.47%
Stop $11.58Target $14.00(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$16.09+30.7%12 analysts
$14.00our TP
$12.31price
$16.09mean
$22

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.31: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.4
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn8.6%
ROE20.7%
Rev Growth6.8%
Beta0.95
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV62%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 2.02LOW
    Driven Brands released a press release on April 21, 2026 disclosing expected performance for Q4 2025, FY2025, and Q1 2026, and provided an update on the filing status of the FY2025 Form 10-K and its anticipated impact on the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-21Item 3.01MEDIUM
    Driven Brands received a Nasdaq non-compliance notice on April 15, 2026 for failing to timely file its FY2025 Form 10-K (12b-25 late notice filed Feb 26, 2026). Notice has no immediate effect on listing or trading. Company intends to regain compliance.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-05Item 3.01MEDIUM
    Driven Brands received a second Nasdaq non-compliance notice on June 1, 2026 for failing to timely file its Q1 2026 Form 10-Q. Company has until July 31, 2026 to submit a compliance plan; Nasdaq may grant until November 25, 2026. No immediate effect on listing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.2
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)8K FLAG 3.01,3.01Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.94Resistance $13.84

Price Targets

$12
$14
A.Upside+13.7%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DRVN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.31: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.58. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the DRVN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.00 (+13.7% upside). Prior stop was $11.58. Stop-loss: $11.58.

What are the risks of investing in DRVN?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is DRVN overvalued or undervalued?

Driven Brands Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.4 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DRVN?

17 analysts cover DRVN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Driven Brands Holdings Inc. do?Driven Brands, the largest automotive services company in North America by location count, operates 4,200+ locations in...

Driven Brands, the largest automotive services company in North America by location count, operates 4,200+ locations in 49 U.S. states and Canada under brands including Take 5 Oil Change, Meineke, Maaco, CARSTAR, and AutoGlassNow. The company generated approximately $1.9 billion in net revenue from $6.1 billion in system-wide sales in fiscal 2025, with a mix of company-operated and franchised locations across oil change, collision repair, paint, glass, and parts distribution.

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