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CarGurus, Inc. (CARG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. At $28.51, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: dealers; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

CarGurus operates online automotive marketplaces in the US, UK, and Canada connecting consumers and dealers through search, research, and transactional tools. Revenue comes from dealer subscription fees, advertising, and financing partnerships with the No. 1 visited US... Read more

$28.51+14.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield8.49%
Stop $27.46Target $32.51(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$37.36+31.1%11 analysts
$32.51our TP
$28.51price
$37.36mean
$43

Sell if holding. At $28.51, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: dealers; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 16, MACD bearish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — CarGurus, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.6 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: dealers
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.1
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn15.9%
ROE58.5%
Rev Growth14.8%
Beta1.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV57%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerdealers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is substantially dependent on our relationships with dealers. If a significant number of dealers terminate their subscriptions with us...our business and financial results would be materially and adversely affected.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.7
Capitulation risk (RSI 16, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.3
Revenue Growth
6.2
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
16 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $28.31Resistance $38.66

Price Targets

$27
$33
A.Upside+14.0%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CARG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $28.51, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: dealers; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 16, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $27.46. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CARG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.51 (+14.5% upside). Prior stop was $27.46. Stop-loss: $27.46.

What are the risks of investing in CARG?

Concentration risk — Customer: dealers; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is CARG overvalued or undervalued?

CarGurus, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.1 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CARG?

20 analysts cover CARG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $37.

What does CarGurus, Inc. do?CarGurus operates online automotive marketplaces in the US, UK, and Canada connecting consumers and dealers through...

CarGurus operates online automotive marketplaces in the US, UK, and Canada connecting consumers and dealers through search, research, and transactional tools. Revenue comes from dealer subscription fees, advertising, and financing partnerships with the No. 1 visited US automotive shopping site. The platform's network of dealers and consumers creates two-sided marketplace dynamics that reinforce retention.

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