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Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.19: Risk below floor (2.5 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.00; Negative price momentum.

Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to... Read more

$32.19+19.4% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.12%
Stop $30.63Target $38.40(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$42.67+32.5%15 analysts
$38.40our TP
$32.19price
$42.67mean
$48

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.19: Risk below floor (2.5 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.00; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.6Qual5.5Grw7.1Mom3.6Sent7.2Ins5.0Peer5.4Tech7.2Risk2.55.7OVERALL

Recent Developments — Valvoline Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Risk below floor (2.5 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)44.3
P/E (Fwd)16.1
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA13.6
Profit Mgn5.0%
ROE31.8%
Rev Growth25.0%
Beta1.04
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.00bearish
IV51%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Effective March 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of Valvoline Inc. (the "Company" or "Valvoline") appointed Jordan M.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Put Call
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Volatility
1.2
Days To Cover
1.7
Short Interest
2.8
Implied Vol
4.8
Beta
6.8
Elevated put/call: 4.00

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.3
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.3
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.58Resistance $37.12

Price Targets

$31
$38
A.Upside+19.3%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.5 < 3.0)
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VVV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.19: Risk below floor (2.5 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.00; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $30.63. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VVV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.40 (+19.4% upside). Prior stop was $30.63. Stop-loss: $30.63.

What are the risks of investing in VVV?

Risk below floor (2.5 < 3.0).

Is VVV overvalued or undervalued?

Valvoline Inc. trades at a P/E of 44.3 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VVV?

21 analysts cover VVV with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Valvoline Inc. do?Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its...

Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to Valvoline Inc., its predecessors and its consolidated subsidiaries, except where the context indicates otherwise.

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