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Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.84: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to... Read more

$32.84+14.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#6 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
Stop $30.73Target $37.56(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$41.73+27.1%15 analysts
$37.56our TP
$32.84price
$41.73mean
$48

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.84: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-5.5% YoY), High leverage (D/E 35.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)46.8
P/E (Fwd)16.1
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA17.3
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE33.0%
Rev Growth11.5%
Beta1.19
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$20-39.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Effective March 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of Valvoline Inc. (the "Company" or "Valvoline") appointed Jordan M.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-29Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 28, 2026, Valvoline Inc. ("Valvoline" or the "Company") held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders ("2026 Annual Meeting").
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.9
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Operating Margin
0.4
Net Margin
2.5
Current Ratio
2.8
Roa
3.3
Gross Margin
3.7
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
7.8
Roe
10.0
Excellent ROE: 33%Earnings quality RED FLAG: -19% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $31.68Resistance $36.24

Price Targets

$31
$38
A.Upside+14.4%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-5.5% YoY), High leverage (D/E 35.3)
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VVV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.84: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $30.73. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VVV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.56 (+14.3% upside). Prior stop was $30.73. Stop-loss: $30.73.

What are the risks of investing in VVV?

Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-5.5% YoY), High leverage (D/E 35.3).

Is VVV overvalued or undervalued?

Valvoline Inc. trades at a P/E of 46.8 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VVV?

21 analysts cover VVV with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Valvoline Inc. do?Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its...

Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to Valvoline Inc., its predecessors and its consolidated subsidiaries, except where the context indicates otherwise.

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