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VVVValvoline Inc.Sell5.8·$37.75-1.02%
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Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.75 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5.

Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to... Read more

$37.75+0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.97%
Stop $35.39Target $37.98(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$42.20+11.8%15 analysts
$37.98our TP
$37.75price
$42.20mean
$35
$48

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.75 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)50.9
P/E (Fwd)18.5
Mkt Cap$4.9B
EV/EBITDA15.0
Profit Mgn5.0%
ROE31.8%
Rev Growth25.0%
Beta1.03
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.55bearish
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$18-53.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.4
Support Resistance
1.7
52w Position
8.3
GatesA.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.41Resistance $39.01

Price Targets

$35
$38
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.6% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VVV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.75 — A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $35.39. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VVV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.98 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $35.39. Stop-loss: $35.39.

What are the risks of investing in VVV?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5; Elevated risk factors.

Is VVV overvalued or undervalued?

Valvoline Inc. trades at a P/E of 50.9 (forward 18.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VVV?

22 analysts cover VVV with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Valvoline Inc. do?Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its...

Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to Valvoline Inc., its predecessors and its consolidated subsidiaries, except where the context indicates otherwise.

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