Valvoline is an automotive quick-lube service company with 25% revenue growth, 32% return on equity, and a recovery technical pattern with improving MACD, but the stock has already reached its analyst price target with essentially zero upside remaining, a risk score below the minimum threshold at 2.7, and 14% short interest combined with a 4.60 put/call ratio signaling intense bearish conviction.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Growth High Roe→Stable
- Target Reached Extreme Options Risk↑Improving
- Recovery Pattern Overbought Signal↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 21, 2025· older than 90 days
Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Sell if holding. At $36.18, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to... Read more
Sell if holding. At $36.18, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Sep 30, 2026
Recent Developments — Valvoline Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS VVV Sports Limited: Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2026 - TradingView — TradingView Sep 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Is It Too Late to Buy Valvoline Inc (VVV) After 4.1% Rally? GF V - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Sep 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS BUZZ - Valvoline shares rise as stock repurchase program increases to $500 millions - Bitget — Bitget Sep 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Valvoline Boosts Share Buyback Scheme to $500 million - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com Sep 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Valvoline (VVV) Board Approves $175M Stock Buyback, Boosting Aut - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Sep 29, 2026 positive
Latest item Sep 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:44:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $36.18, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $33.90. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $38.08 (+5.3% upside). Prior stop was $33.90. Stop-loss: $33.90.
Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5.
Valvoline Inc. trades at a P/E of 44.7 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts rate VVV, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 16 analysts publish price targets averaging $42.
What does Valvoline Inc. do?Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its...
Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to Valvoline Inc., its predecessors and its consolidated subsidiaries, except where the context indicates otherwise.