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Masco Corporation (MAS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot (38.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Masco Corporation manufactures and distributes branded home improvement and building products under BEHR paint, DELTA and HANSGROHE faucets, HOT SPRING spas, and LIBERTY hardware, sold primarily through home center retailers and online channels. Net sales were approximately $7.6... Read more

$64.47+12.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#4 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.59%
IncomeYield1.95%(5y avg 1.75%)Payout30.94%sustainable
Stop $61.35Target $72.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$80.67+25.1%18 analysts
$72.60our TP
$64.47price
$80.67mean
$97

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot (38.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.8Qual6.6Grw5.0Mom1.9Sent7.8Ins5.0Peer6.7Tech8.4Risk4.95.9OVERALL

Recent Developments — Masco Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot (38.0%)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 122.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.2
P/E (Fwd)13.9
Mkt Cap$13.2B
EV/EBITDA11.3
Profit Mgn10.9%
ROE8457.1%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta1.34
Dividend1.95%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.64bearish
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerThe Home Depot38%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our net sales to The Home Depot were $2.9 billion (approximately 38 percent of our consolidated net sales)'
  • LOWGeographicnon-North America sales21%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, 21 percent of our sales were made outside of North America (particularly in Europe) and transacted in currencies other than the U.S. dollar'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    Jai Shah, Group President Plumbing and Wellness, to conclude service July 3, 2026. Separation agreement provides $1,206,000 cash, prorated 2026 bonus and RSU equivalent, and prorated LTIP share award. No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-26Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Masco entered new $1 billion revolving Credit Agreement dated March 20, 2026 with JPMorgan as administrative agent, replacing the 2022 Credit Agreement which was concurrently terminated. Available in USD, EUR, and other currencies for general corporate purposes.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved full-value RSU award for CEO Jonathon J. Nudi of $1,749,000 for 2025 service (pro-rated from July 7, 2025 start date). Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.6
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $63.25Resistance $76.10

Price Targets

$61
$73
A.Upside+12.6%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MAS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot (38.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $61.35. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

What is the MAS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $72.60 (+12.6% upside). Prior stop was $61.35. Stop-loss: $61.35.

What are the risks of investing in MAS?

Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot (38.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 122.3): -1.5.

Is MAS overvalued or undervalued?

Masco Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MAS?

27 analysts cover MAS with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $81.

What does Masco Corporation do?Masco Corporation manufactures and distributes branded home improvement and building products under BEHR paint, DELTA...

Masco Corporation manufactures and distributes branded home improvement and building products under BEHR paint, DELTA and HANSGROHE faucets, HOT SPRING spas, and LIBERTY hardware, sold primarily through home center retailers and online channels. Net sales were approximately $7.6 billion in 2025; The Home Depot accounted for approximately 38% of consolidated net sales, with BEHR holding exclusive retail channel rights in North America.

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