AAON, Inc. (AAON) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Sell if holding. At $92.66, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
AAON manufactures highly configurable commercial HVAC systems and data center cooling solutions through three segments — AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX — with facilities in Oklahoma, Texas, and Oregon. Domestic sales represent ~97% of revenue; backlog reached... Read more
Sell if holding. At $92.66, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerthree customers ≥10% of revenue10-K Item 1: 'For the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, the Company had three, two and three customers, respectively, that were 10 percent or greater concentrations of revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUMAndy Cheung appointed EVP and CFO effective April 20, 2026, succeeding Rebecca Thompson. Cheung has 25+ years HVAC/automotive finance experience. Clean handoff with named successor.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $92.66, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $86.08. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $104.34 (+12.7% upside). Prior stop was $86.08. Stop-loss: $86.08.
Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Expensive valuation.
AAON, Inc. trades at a P/E of 67.0 (forward 29.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover AAON with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $123.
What does AAON, Inc. do?AAON manufactures highly configurable commercial HVAC systems and data center cooling solutions through three segments...
AAON manufactures highly configurable commercial HVAC systems and data center cooling solutions through three segments — AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX — with facilities in Oklahoma, Texas, and Oregon. Domestic sales represent ~97% of revenue; backlog reached $1,828.5 million at December 31, 2025.