Skip to main content

AAON, Inc. (AAON) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $129.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

AAON manufactures highly configurable HVAC systems through three segments—AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX—for commercial, industrial, and hyperscale data center markets primarily in the U.S. (foreign sales ~2.6% of 2025 net sales). Revenue comes from selling rooftop... Read more

$129.76+12.5% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#11 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-2.02%
IncomeYield0.31%(5y avg 0.50%)Payout28.17%sustainable
Stop $120.68Target $146.02(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$143.50+10.6%4 analysts
$146.02our TP
$129.76price
$143.50mean
$120
$154

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $129.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — AAON, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)91.7
P/E (Fwd)39.6
Mkt Cap$10.7B
EV/EBITDA44.3
Profit Mgn7.3%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth54.3%
Beta1.25
Dividend0.31%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.59bullish
IV62%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
0.4
Forward Pe
2.8
Peg Ratio
3.2
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
5.8
Forward P/E: 39.6xPEG: 3.91Expensive valuation
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $85.63Resistance $149.00

Price Targets

$121
$146
A.Upside+12.5%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $129.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $120.68. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the AAON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $146.02 (+12.5% upside). Prior stop was $120.68. Stop-loss: $120.68.

What are the risks of investing in AAON?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is AAON overvalued or undervalued?

AAON, Inc. trades at a P/E of 91.7 (forward 39.6). TrendMatrix value score: 2.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AAON?

13 analysts cover AAON with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $144.

What does AAON, Inc. do?AAON manufactures highly configurable HVAC systems through three segments—AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and...

AAON manufactures highly configurable HVAC systems through three segments—AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX—for commercial, industrial, and hyperscale data center markets primarily in the U.S. (foreign sales ~2.6% of 2025 net sales). Revenue comes from selling rooftop units, custom air handlers, and data center cooling solutions through independent sales representatives.

Related stocks: AWI (Armstrong World Industries Inc) · ARLO (Arlo Technologies, Inc.) · MAS (Masco Corporation) · WMS (Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.) · JCI (Johnson Controls International )