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Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $152.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot and Lowe's Companies; Concentration risk — Customer: building materials distributors (63.0%).

Armstrong World Industries manufactures interior and exterior architectural applications including mineral fiber and fiberglass ceiling systems (Mineral Fiber segment) and specialty ceilings, walls, and exterior metal solutions (Architectural Specialties segment). In 2025,... Read more

$152.83+18.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.22%
IncomeYield0.84%(5y avg 0.96%)Payout18.35%sustainable
Stop $147.41Target $180.57(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$207.56+35.8%9 analysts
$180.57our TP
$152.83price
$207.56mean
$235

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $152.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot and Lowe's Companies; Concentration risk — Customer: building materials distributors (63.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Armstrong World Industries Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot and Lowe's Companies
Concentration risk — Customer: building materials distributors (63.0%)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.4
P/E (Fwd)16.8
Mkt Cap$6.7B
EV/EBITDA16.5
Profit Mgn18.6%
ROE36.3%
Rev Growth7.1%
Beta1.21
Dividend0.84%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV39%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerThe Home Depot and Lowe's Companies
    10-K Item 1: 'Gross sales to Lowe's Companies, Inc. (including sales to Foundation Building Materials, Inc.) and The Home Depot, Inc. (including sales to GMS, Inc.) totaled $937.8 million and each individually exceeded 10% of our consolidated gross sales in 2025.'
  • HIGHCustomerbuilding materials distributors63%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 63% of our consolidated net sales were to building materials distributors.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.8
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $151.97Resistance $181.42

Price Targets

$147
$181
A.Upside+18.2%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AWI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $152.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot and Lowe's Companies; Concentration risk — Customer: building materials distributors (63.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $147.41. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AWI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $180.57 (+18.2% upside). Prior stop was $147.41. Stop-loss: $147.41.

What are the risks of investing in AWI?

Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot and Lowe's Companies; Concentration risk — Customer: building materials distributors (63.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is AWI overvalued or undervalued?

Armstrong World Industries Inc trades at a P/E of 22.4 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AWI?

15 analysts cover AWI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $208.

What does Armstrong World Industries Inc do?Armstrong World Industries manufactures interior and exterior architectural applications including mineral fiber and...

Armstrong World Industries manufactures interior and exterior architectural applications including mineral fiber and fiberglass ceiling systems (Mineral Fiber segment) and specialty ceilings, walls, and exterior metal solutions (Architectural Specialties segment). In 2025, approximately 63% of consolidated net sales went to building materials distributors; both The Home Depot (including GMS) and Lowe's (including Foundation Building Materials) each exceeded 10% of consolidated gross sales.

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