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Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $130.83. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $131.46. Engine's entry $130.83 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management solutions for stormwater and onsite septic markets, serving residential, nonresidential, infrastructure, and agriculture end markets. FY2025 revenue mix: Pipe 51.8%,... Read more

$131.46+29.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.55%
IncomeYield0.55%(5y avg 0.44%)Payout11.65%sustainable
Entry $130.83(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $121.56Target $164.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.6:1Setup A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$189.22+43.9%9 analysts
$164.62our TP
$131.46price
$189.22mean
$215

Wait for pullback to $130.83. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $131.46. Engine's entry $130.83 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.8Qual7.7Grw3.8Mom1.2Sent7.6Ins5.0Peer4.9Tech7.2Risk6.05.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.9
P/E (Fwd)19.7
Mkt Cap$10.3B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn15.7%
ROE27.6%
Rev Growth0.4%
Beta1.33
Dividend0.55%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.03bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$75-42.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop 10 customers47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ten largest customers generated approximately 47% of our net sales in fiscal 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.6
Earnings Growth
4.9
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $130.62Resistance $156.26

Price Targets

$122
$131
$165
A.Upside+25.2%
A.R:R3.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WMS stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $130.83. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $131.46. Engine's entry $130.83 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $164.62 (+25.2%), stop $121.56 (−8.1%), Setup A.R:R 4.2:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $164.62 (+29.6% upside). Target $164.62 (+25.2%), stop $121.56 (−8.1%), Setup A.R:R 4.2:1. Stop-loss: $121.56.

What are the risks of investing in WMS?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is WMS overvalued or undervalued?

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.9 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about WMS?

15 analysts cover WMS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $189.

What does Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. do?Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management solutions...

Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management solutions for stormwater and onsite septic markets, serving residential, nonresidential, infrastructure, and agriculture end markets. FY2025 revenue mix: Pipe 51.8%, Infiltrator 17.8%, Allied Products 23.8%, International 6.7%; distributed through 63 manufacturing plants and 39 distribution centers primarily in North America.

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