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WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems, Inc.Buy Wait5.5·$143.23+4.71%
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Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Wait for pullback to $141.98. At $143.23 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $141.98 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Weak growth.

Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management solutions for stormwater and onsite septic markets, serving residential, nonresidential, infrastructure, and agriculture end markets. FY2025 revenue mix: Pipe 51.8%,... Read more

$143.23+10.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 19 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.21%
IncomeYield0.58%(5y avg 0.44%)Payout13.21%sustainable
Entry $141.98(50-day MA)Stop $133.62Target $156.34(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$179.70+25.5%10 analysts
$156.34our TP
$143.23price
$179.70mean
$205

Wait for pullback to $141.98. At $143.23 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $141.98 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.

About Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.

Advanced Drainage Systems reported Stormwater at 78.6% and Wastewater at 21.4% of net sales in fiscal 2026, with Stormwater contracting from 80.1% in fiscal 2025 and 82.2% in fiscal 2024 as the Wastewater segment grows. The company operates 64 manufacturing plants and 41 distribution centers across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, including six plants and seven distribution centers held through joint ventures. The ten largest customers represented approximately 50% of net sales in fiscal 2026, and the company completed the acquisition of National Diversified Sales in February 2026.

ADS earns revenue from selling corrugated pipe (single, double, and triple wall HDPE and polypropylene) plus allied products — storm retention chambers, PVC drainage structures, fittings, and water quality filters — to residential, non-residential, infrastructure, and agriculture customers through a national distribution network. The February 2026 acquisition of National Diversified Sales added residential channel drains, catch basins, and access boxes. Wastewater revenue flows from the Infiltrator subsidiary's leachfield chambers, onsite wastewater tanks, and treatment systems, and from Orenco Systems (acquired October 2024), which manufactures control panels, composites, and advanced treatment systems. Resin constitutes the principal raw material — more than 1.0 billion pounds purchased annually from approximately 450 suppliers, encompassing virgin HDPE and PP plus post-consumer and post-industrial recycled streams. The company operates its own delivery fleet, exposing costs to diesel fuel prices that are partially mitigated by a diesel hedging program. The 10-K notes polypropylene resin suppliers are limited and high-density polyethylene suppliers are geographically concentrated, introducing supply risk beyond price volatility.

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ADS revenue is exposed to three cyclically independent end markets that can contract simultaneously: residential housing (sensitive to mortgage rates and consumer confidence), non-residential construction (tied to commercial capex cycles), and infrastructure (dependent on public funding availability). The 10-K identifies each as a separate vulnerability — a residential slowdown, non-residential freeze, and municipal spending reduction could each independently reduce demand for the same product lines. The February 2026 NDS acquisition increases residential end-market exposure, and the 10-K notes approximately 30% of new North American single-family homes use onsite wastewater systems, linking a meaningful portion of Wastewater segment demand to housing starts.

See also: Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

From Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Positive momentum
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.2%
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.1
P/E (Fwd)18.7
Mkt Cap$10.5B
EV/EBITDA13.7
Profit Mgn14.0%
ROE25.1%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta1.29
Dividend0.58%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV49%normal
Max Pain$210+46.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop 10 customers47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ten largest customers generated approximately 47% of our net sales in fiscal 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.6
52w Position
6.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $127.85Resistance $144.28

Price Targets

$134
$142
$156
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R0.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WMS stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $141.98. At $143.23 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $141.98 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $156.34 (+9.2%), stop $133.62 (−7.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $156.34 (+10.1% upside). Target $156.34 (+9.2%), stop $133.62 (−7.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $133.62.

What are the risks of investing in WMS?

Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Weak growth.

Is WMS overvalued or undervalued?

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.1 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about WMS?

15 analysts cover WMS with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $180.

What does Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. do?Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management solutions...

Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management solutions for stormwater and onsite septic markets, serving residential, nonresidential, infrastructure, and agriculture end markets. FY2025 revenue mix: Pipe 51.8%, Infiltrator 17.8%, Allied Products 23.8%, International 6.7%; distributed through 63 manufacturing plants and 39 distribution centers primarily in North America.

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