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Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. At $147.61, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Weak growth.

Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management products for stormwater and onsite septic wastewater, serving residential, non-residential, infrastructure, and agriculture markets. Pipe represented 51.8% of FY2025 net... Read more

$147.61+12.2% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#6 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
Stop $137.28Target $165.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$190.30+28.9%10 analysts
$165.56our TP
$147.61price
$190.30mean
$215

Sell if holding. At $147.61, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.4
P/E (Fwd)21.8
Mkt Cap$11.4B
EV/EBITDA13.2
Profit Mgn15.7%
ROE27.6%
Rev Growth0.4%
Beta1.38
Dividend0.49%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.42bullish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$85-42.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-10 customers47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ten largest customers generated approximately 47% of our net sales in fiscal 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.2
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.6
Earnings Growth
4.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.5
Growth Rank
3.9
Quality Rank
7.7
Best-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $132.29Resistance $159.05

Price Targets

$137
$166
A.Upside+12.2%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WMS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $147.61, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $137.28. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $165.56 (+12.2% upside). Prior stop was $137.28. Stop-loss: $137.28.

What are the risks of investing in WMS?

Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is WMS overvalued or undervalued?

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.4 (forward 21.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WMS?

15 analysts cover WMS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $190.

What does Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. do?Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management products...

Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management products for stormwater and onsite septic wastewater, serving residential, non-residential, infrastructure, and agriculture markets. Pipe represented 51.8% of FY2025 net sales, Infiltrator 17.8%, and Allied Products 23.8%. The company estimates its total addressable market at approximately $15 billion across stormwater and septic industries.

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