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Johnson Controls International (JCI) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $137.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Johnson Controls designs, manufactures, installs, and services commercial HVAC, fire, security, and building management systems globally through Americas, EMEA, and APAC segments. Revenue is earned from products/systems (68%) and services (32%), with a $16.6B backlog at... Read more

$137.31+5.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#5 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.43%
IncomeYield1.17%(5y avg 1.93%)Payout48.01%sustainable
Stop $133.03Target $144.37(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$151.19+10.1%21 analysts
$144.37our TP
$137.31price
$151.19mean
$111
$173

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $137.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Johnson Controls International

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)42.0
P/E (Fwd)24.1
Mkt Cap$83.8B
EV/EBITDA21.4
Profit Mgn14.5%
ROE13.4%
Rev Growth8.2%
Beta1.39
Dividend1.17%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.66bullish
IV38%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $137.14Resistance $147.32

Price Targets

$133
$144
A.Upside+5.1%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.9% upside)
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JCI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $137.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $133.03. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JCI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $144.37 (+5.1% upside). Prior stop was $133.03. Stop-loss: $133.03.

What are the risks of investing in JCI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is JCI overvalued or undervalued?

Johnson Controls International trades at a P/E of 42.0 (forward 24.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JCI?

27 analysts cover JCI with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $151.

What does Johnson Controls International do?Johnson Controls designs, manufactures, installs, and services commercial HVAC, fire, security, and building management...

Johnson Controls designs, manufactures, installs, and services commercial HVAC, fire, security, and building management systems globally through Americas, EMEA, and APAC segments. Revenue is earned from products/systems (68%) and services (32%), with a $16.6B backlog at September 30, 2025, serving commercial, industrial, data center, and government customers. The company completed the divestiture of its Residential and Light Commercial HVAC business to Bosch on July 31, 2025.

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