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Macy's Inc (M) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Department Stores

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.56 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).

Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under three brands—Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury—serving approximately 40 million active consumers annually across U.S. urban and suburban markets. Revenue is driven by merchandise sales across apparel, cosmetics, and home categories,... Read more

$18.56+8.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#2 of 4 Department Stores
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.93%
IncomeYield4.16%(5y avg 7.85%)Payout31.45%sustainable
Stop $17.39Target $20.16(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$19.40+4.5%10 analysts
$20.16our TP
$18.56price
$19.40mean
$9
$25

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.56 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Macy's Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 47%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.9
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$4.9B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn2.8%
ROE13.6%
Rev Growth-1.1%
Beta1.49
Dividend4.16%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.58bullish
IV75%elevated
Max Pain$11-40.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
    Richard Clark, Douglas W. Sesler, and Tracey Zhen notified Board of intention not to stand for re-election at May 15, 2026 annual meeting. No disagreement cited. Board size reduced from 13 to 10 members effective at 2026 Annual Meeting.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.93Resistance $20.57

Price Targets

$17
$20
A.Upside+8.6%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-27 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is M stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.56 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $17.39. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the M stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.16 (+8.9% upside). Prior stop was $17.39. Stop-loss: $17.39.

What are the risks of investing in M?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is M overvalued or undervalued?

Macy's Inc trades at a P/E of 7.9 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about M?

19 analysts cover M with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Macy's Inc do?Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under three brands—Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury—serving approximately 40...

Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under three brands—Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury—serving approximately 40 million active consumers annually across U.S. urban and suburban markets. Revenue is driven by merchandise sales across apparel, cosmetics, and home categories, totaling $21.8 billion in fiscal 2025; no individual supplier accounts for more than 4% of purchases.

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