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Macy's Inc (M) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Department Stores

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under three brands—Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury—across the U.S., serving nearly 40 million active consumers in apparel, cosmetics, and home furnishings. The company generates $21.8B in net sales through retail and digital channels,... Read more

$19.59+2.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#1 of 4 Department Stores
Stop $18.42Target $20.16(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$19.40-1.0%10 analysts
$20.16our TP
$19.59price
$19.40mean
$9
$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Margin of safety: 44%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.3
P/E (Fwd)8.8
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn2.8%
ROE13.6%
Rev Growth-1.1%
Beta1.52
Dividend3.97%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.97neutral
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$30+53.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerCitibank credit program3.1%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Credit card revenues, net were $669 million, or approximately 3.1% of net sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
    Richard Clark, Douglas W. Sesler, and Tracey Zhen notified the Board of intention not to stand for re-election at the May 15, 2026 annual meeting. Board to decrease from 13 to 10 members. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.30Resistance $20.57

Price Targets

$18
$20
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-27 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is M stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $19.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $20.16 (+2.9%), stop $18.42 (−6.4%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the M stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.16 (+2.8% upside). Target $20.16 (+2.9%), stop $18.42 (−6.4%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $18.42.

What are the risks of investing in M?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is M overvalued or undervalued?

Macy's Inc trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about M?

19 analysts cover M with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Macy's Inc do?Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under three brands—Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury—across the U.S., serving...

Macy's, Inc. operates 665 stores under three brands—Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury—across the U.S., serving nearly 40 million active consumers in apparel, cosmetics, and home furnishings. The company generates $21.8B in net sales through retail and digital channels, supplemented by a Citibank co-branded credit card program generating $669M in annual fees.

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