Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 3.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 3.06
M · Why this verdict
Why Macy's (M) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with the average surprise at 150%, including a 360% beat in the most recent period — a track record that signals consistent under-promising and over-delivering relative to street expectations. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak extends to five consecutive quarters, with the next EPS surprise remaining above zero percent. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bar for a continuation beat has been set extremely high; starting from a 360% beat, even a good quarter that misses the now-elevated expectation could be read negatively by the market. | ||
The business carries no assessed competitive moat, thin operating margins, and a short interest of 15% of float — a combination that amplifies drawdown risk if earnings momentum reverses or the macro environment for department store retail softens. Key risks | Short interest declines below 10% of float within 12 months as the earnings beat streak continues to force short covering. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 suggests the balance sheet is more resilient than the moat assessment implies, and heavy short interest can itself become a tailwind through forced covering if results continue to surprise. | ||
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with a golden cross in place, RSI at 68, MACD bullish, and on-balance volume rising — a confluence of technical signals consistent with a stock under accumulation. Momentum breakdown | The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 consecutive months without a death cross. | →Stable |
| CounterAt RSI 68, the stock is approaching overbought territory, and any disappointment on the next earnings report could trigger a swift reversal given that the technical setup is already extended. | ||
With only 1.1% of headroom to the resistance price target and a risk/reward ratio of 0.16-to-1 — well below any conventional entry threshold — the current price offers an unattractive setup for new positions regardless of the business momentum. Price targets | A new, higher analyst consensus target emerges that restores at least 10% upside from the current price, resetting the asymmetry to a favorable level. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock can trade through a resistance target if fundamental momentum is strong enough; four straight earnings beats and bullish momentum could carry the price to a new equilibrium above the current target. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with the average surprise at 150%, including a 360% beat in the most recent period — a track record that signals consistent under-promising and over-delivering relative to street expectations.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to five consecutive quarters, with the next EPS surprise remaining above zero percent.
CounterThe bar for a continuation beat has been set extremely high; starting from a 360% beat, even a good quarter that misses the now-elevated expectation could be read negatively by the market.
The business carries no assessed competitive moat, thin operating margins, and a short interest of 15% of float — a combination that amplifies drawdown risk if earnings momentum reverses or the macro environment for department store retail softens.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 10% of float within 12 months as the earnings beat streak continues to force short covering.
CounterA strong Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 suggests the balance sheet is more resilient than the moat assessment implies, and heavy short interest can itself become a tailwind through forced covering if results continue to surprise.
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with a golden cross in place, RSI at 68, MACD bullish, and on-balance volume rising — a confluence of technical signals consistent with a stock under accumulation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 consecutive months without a death cross.
CounterAt RSI 68, the stock is approaching overbought territory, and any disappointment on the next earnings report could trigger a swift reversal given that the technical setup is already extended.
With only 1.1% of headroom to the resistance price target and a risk/reward ratio of 0.16-to-1 — well below any conventional entry threshold — the current price offers an unattractive setup for new positions regardless of the business momentum.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A new, higher analyst consensus target emerges that restores at least 10% upside from the current price, resetting the asymmetry to a favorable level.
CounterThe stock can trade through a resistance target if fundamental momentum is strong enough; four straight earnings beats and bullish momentum could carry the price to a new equilibrium above the current target.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Macy's has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 150%, and price momentum is firmly positive, but the stock has run to within 1.1% of its resistance target with an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.16-to-1, making the current entry unattractive despite an impressive recent execution record.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.1 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=3)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $667,004 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.5 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 8.8 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $13
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -21.2% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 329.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.04
Upside
-19.0%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.49>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.04 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.8, Growth at 6.5, and Technical at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Peer rank at 3.8, and Quality at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in any of the next 2 quarterly reports, ending the beat streak.
- P2Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifThe stock falls below its 200-day moving average and holds there for more than 10 consecutive trading days.
- P3Thin Upside Unfavorable Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $28, restoring more than 10% upside from the current price.
- P4Quality And Short Interest Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 18% of float, signaling accelerating bearish conviction.