Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 3.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 3.06
M · Why this verdict
Why Macy's (M) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with the average surprise at 150%, including a 360% beat in the most recent period — a track record that signals consistent under-promising and over-delivering relative to street expectations. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak extends to five consecutive quarters, with the next EPS surprise remaining above zero percent. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bar for a continuation beat has been set extremely high; starting from a 360% beat, even a good quarter that misses the now-elevated expectation could be read negatively by the market. | ||
The business carries no assessed competitive moat, thin operating margins, and a short interest of 15% of float — a combination that amplifies drawdown risk if earnings momentum reverses or the macro environment for department store retail softens. Key risks | Short interest declines below 10% of float within 12 months as the earnings beat streak continues to force short covering. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 suggests the balance sheet is more resilient than the moat assessment implies, and heavy short interest can itself become a tailwind through forced covering if results continue to surprise. | ||
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with a golden cross in place, RSI at 68, MACD bullish, and on-balance volume rising — a confluence of technical signals consistent with a stock under accumulation. Momentum breakdown | The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 consecutive months without a death cross. | →Stable |
| CounterAt RSI 68, the stock is approaching overbought territory, and any disappointment on the next earnings report could trigger a swift reversal given that the technical setup is already extended. | ||
With only 1.1% of headroom to the resistance price target and a risk/reward ratio of 0.16-to-1 — well below any conventional entry threshold — the current price offers an unattractive setup for new positions regardless of the business momentum. Price targets | A new, higher analyst consensus target emerges that restores at least 10% upside from the current price, resetting the asymmetry to a favorable level. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock can trade through a resistance target if fundamental momentum is strong enough; four straight earnings beats and bullish momentum could carry the price to a new equilibrium above the current target. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with the average surprise at 150%, including a 360% beat in the most recent period — a track record that signals consistent under-promising and over-delivering relative to street expectations.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to five consecutive quarters, with the next EPS surprise remaining above zero percent.
CounterThe bar for a continuation beat has been set extremely high; starting from a 360% beat, even a good quarter that misses the now-elevated expectation could be read negatively by the market.
The business carries no assessed competitive moat, thin operating margins, and a short interest of 15% of float — a combination that amplifies drawdown risk if earnings momentum reverses or the macro environment for department store retail softens.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 10% of float within 12 months as the earnings beat streak continues to force short covering.
CounterA strong Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 suggests the balance sheet is more resilient than the moat assessment implies, and heavy short interest can itself become a tailwind through forced covering if results continue to surprise.
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with a golden cross in place, RSI at 68, MACD bullish, and on-balance volume rising — a confluence of technical signals consistent with a stock under accumulation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 consecutive months without a death cross.
CounterAt RSI 68, the stock is approaching overbought territory, and any disappointment on the next earnings report could trigger a swift reversal given that the technical setup is already extended.
With only 1.1% of headroom to the resistance price target and a risk/reward ratio of 0.16-to-1 — well below any conventional entry threshold — the current price offers an unattractive setup for new positions regardless of the business momentum.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A new, higher analyst consensus target emerges that restores at least 10% upside from the current price, resetting the asymmetry to a favorable level.
CounterThe stock can trade through a resistance target if fundamental momentum is strong enough; four straight earnings beats and bullish momentum could carry the price to a new equilibrium above the current target.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Macy's has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 150%, and price momentum is firmly positive, but the stock has run to within 1.1% of its resistance target with an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.16-to-1, making the current entry unattractive despite an impressive recent execution record.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.1 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=3)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $667,004 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.5 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 8.8 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $13
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -21.2% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 329.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.04
Upside
-19.0%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.49>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.04 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.8, Growth at 6.5, and Technical at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Peer rank at 3.8, and Quality at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in any of the next 2 quarterly reports, ending the beat streak.
- P2Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifThe stock falls below its 200-day moving average and holds there for more than 10 consecutive trading days.
- P3Thin Upside Unfavorable Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $28, restoring more than 10% upside from the current price.
- P4Quality And Short Interest Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 18% of float, signaling accelerating bearish conviction.