Kohl's has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 76% and exceptional free cash flow conversion of 296%, but business quality sits below the minimum investment threshold, revenue is declining, short interest at 25% of float reflects a deeply skeptical market, and the risk/reward is unfavorable with only 3.3% upside remaining to the take-profit level.
Thesis pillars
- Four Quarter Beat Streak→Stable
- Declining Revenue Below Quality Floor→Stable
- High Short Interest Market Skepticism→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026· older than 90 days
Kohl's Corporation (KSS) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Department Stores
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.36: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 34%; Below-average business quality.
Kohl's Corporation (the "Company," "Kohl's," "we," "our," or "us") was organized in 1988 and is a Wisconsin corporation. As of January 31, 2026, we operated 1,153 Kohl's stores and a website (www.Kohls.com). Our Kohl's stores and website sell moderately-priced proprietary and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.36: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 34%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — Kohl's Corporation
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 29, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
Latest news
- NEWS Bears Load Up on Ondas, Dutch Bros and 8 More Stocks — Is a Squeeze Brewing? — benzinga Oct 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Stacy Taffet Appointed to Kohl's Board of Directors — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Kohl's Announces $1 Million Donation to Feeding America — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Kohl's Announces Veterans Day 2026 Discount Offer — fiscal.ai Oct 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Chinese Fast Fashion Platform Shein To Pay $100M In U.S. FTC Probe Settlement — benzinga Oct 23, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T12:04:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-29Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.SEC filing →
- 2026-08-31Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.SEC filing →
- 2026-08-25Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -0.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.36: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 34%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $23.58. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $16.71 reached (−34.1% from $25.36); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $23.58. Stop-loss: $23.58.
Target reached (-34.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.70% of cap).
Kohl's Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts rate KSS, with a consensus score of 2.6/5. 12 analysts publish price targets averaging $19.
What does Kohl's Corporation do?Kohl's Corporation (the "Company," "Kohl's," "we," "our," or "us") was organized in 1988 and is a Wisconsin...
Kohl's Corporation (the "Company," "Kohl's," "we," "our," or "us") was organized in 1988 and is a Wisconsin corporation. As of January 31, 2026, we operated 1,153 Kohl's stores and a website (www.Kohls.com). Our Kohl's stores and website sell moderately-priced proprietary and national brand apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty, and home products. Our Kohl's stores generally carry a consistent merchandise assortment with some differences attributable to local preferences and store size.