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SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedSell6.6·$11.97
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Super Group is a high-quality online gaming company with a 36% return on equity, a perfect Piotroski score of 9/9, and 33% analyst upside, but consecutive earnings misses and 12% short interest reflect real execution concerns that must be resolved before the investment case is fully validated.

Thesis pillars

  • Consecutive Earnings Misses Execution Risk↓Deteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation High Analyst Upside↓Deteriorating
  • Elite Returns And Piotroski Perfection→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.97 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America,... Read more

$11.97+41.7% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#1 of 8 Gambling
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.81%
IncomeYield1.66%Payout18.07%sustainable
Stop $11.13Target $16.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.5:1
Analyst target$19.50+62.9%8 analysts
$16.96our TP
$11.97price
$19.50mean
$22

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.97 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and news legal. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.6
P/E (Fwd)13.5
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn15.1%
ROE49.5%
Rev Growth18.1%
Beta1.08
Dividend1.66%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV52%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.6
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 10, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5NEWS LEGALA.R:R 5.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
10 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.47Resistance $14.27

Price Targets

$11
$17
A.Upside+41.7%
A.R:R5.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! NEWS:LEGAL

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.97 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.13. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.96 (+41.7% upside). Prior stop was $11.13. Stop-loss: $11.13.

What are the risks of investing in SGHC?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is SGHC overvalued or undervalued?

Super Group (SGHC) Limited trades at a P/E of 16.6 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGHC?

14 analysts cover SGHC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Super Group (SGHC) Limited do?Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an...

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America. Super Group (SGHC) Limited is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.

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