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Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Department Stores

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $531.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

The Company, originally founded in 1938 by William T. Dillard, was incorporated in Delaware in 1964 (and was reincorporated in Texas in 2025). As of January 31, 2026, we operated 271 Dillard's stores, including 28 clearance centers, and an Internet store at dillards.com offering... Read more

$531.00+16.1% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#1 of 4 Department Stores
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield6.16%
IncomeYield0.23%(5y avg 0.25%)Payout2.73%sustainable
Stop $502.51Target $616.65(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$537.00+1.1%3 analysts
$616.65our TP
$531.00price
$537.00mean
$465
$650

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $531.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Dillard's, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)15.6
Mkt Cap$8.3B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn9.9%
ROE33.8%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta1.21
Dividend0.23%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $518.05Resistance $629.23

Price Targets

$503
$617
A.Upside+16.1%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.0% upside)
! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DDS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $531.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $502.51. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DDS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $616.65 (+16.1% upside). Prior stop was $502.51. Stop-loss: $502.51.

What are the risks of investing in DDS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is DDS overvalued or undervalued?

Dillard's, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DDS?

11 analysts cover DDS with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $537.

What does Dillard's, Inc. do?The Company, originally founded in 1938 by William T. Dillard, was incorporated in Delaware in 1964 (and was...

The Company, originally founded in 1938 by William T. Dillard, was incorporated in Delaware in 1964 (and was reincorporated in Texas in 2025). As of January 31, 2026, we operated 271 Dillard's stores, including 28 clearance centers, and an Internet store at dillards.com offering a wide selection of merchandise including fashion apparel for women, men and children, accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods. The Company also operates a general contracti

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