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Lennar Corporation (LEN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $83.00: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.81; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States by deliveries, revenues and net earnings, an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans, a provider of title insurance and closing services and a developer of multifamily rental properties. In addition, we... Read more

$83.00+12.8% A.UpsideScore 4.0/10#14 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield16.85%
IncomeYield2.41%(5y avg 1.41%)Payout28.78%sustainable
Stop $78.74Target $93.62(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$91.50+10.2%14 analysts
$93.62our TP
$83.00price
$91.50mean
$74
$124

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $83.00: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.81; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Lennar Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-4.1% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.9
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$20.4B
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth-13.3%
Beta1.42
Dividend2.41%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C3.81bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$60-27.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -13.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -13%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Obv
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.9
Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
5.6

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.5
Roe
2.7
Net Margin
2.7
Roa
2.9
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.6
Current Ratio
5.0
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 193% FCF/NINo competitive moat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.4
Erm
2.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 241.0%
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $81.18Resistance $95.53

Price Targets

$79
$94
A.Upside+12.8%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-16 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LEN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $83.00: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.81; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $78.74. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.

What is the LEN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $93.62 (+12.8% upside). Prior stop was $78.74. Stop-loss: $78.74.

What are the risks of investing in LEN?

Target reached (-4.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is LEN overvalued or undervalued?

Lennar Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.9 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LEN?

27 analysts cover LEN with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Lennar Corporation do?We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States by deliveries, revenues and net earnings, an originator of...

We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States by deliveries, revenues and net earnings, an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans, a provider of title insurance and closing services and a developer of multifamily rental properties. In addition, we are a sponsor and manager of funds and joint ventures engaged in development and ownership of multifamily rental properties and a sponsor and manager of a fund engaged in ownership of single-family rental properties.

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