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IRIngersoll Rand Inc.Buy Wait5.4·$83.34-1.12%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ingersoll Rand presents an unusually strong balance sheet — perfect financial health score and free cash flow conversion of 176% — but the current price geometry offers only 9.3% upside against 11.3% potential downside, and the stock remains in a confirmed near-term downtrend, making the setup unfavorable until asymmetry improves.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Balance Sheet QualityStable
  • Unfavorable Reward Risk GeometryStable
  • Early Signs Of Momentum RecoveryDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Wait for pullback to $79.22. At $83.34 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $79.22 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: revenues outside the United States (58.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source iron castings and motors.

Ingersoll Rand designs, manufactures and markets compressors, vacuum and blower products, and precision fluid-handling equipment across two segments — Industrial Technologies and Services, and Precision and Science Technologies. Aftermarket parts, consumables, and services... Read more

$83.34+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#32 of 56 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.42%
IncomeYield0.09%Payout3.31%sustainable
Entry $79.22(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $73.40Target $83.74(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$96.25+15.5%13 analysts
$83.74our TP
$83.34price
$96.25mean
$109

Wait for pullback to $79.22. At $83.34 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $79.22 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: revenues outside the United States (58.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source iron castings and motors. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202674d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: revenues outside the United States (58.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source iron castings and motors
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.4
P/E (Fwd)21.3
Mkt Cap$32.3B
EV/EBITDA17.9
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE9.5%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta1.16
Dividend0.09%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.01bullish
IV50%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicrevenues outside the United States58%
    10-K Item 1A: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, 58% of our revenues were from customers in countries outside of the United States'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source iron castings and motors
    10-K Item 1A: 'we use single sources of supply for certain iron castings, motors and other select engineered components that are critical in the manufacturing of our products'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $78.78Resistance $91.76

Price Targets

$73
$79
$84
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.5% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $79.22. At $83.34 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $79.22 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: revenues outside the United States (58.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source iron castings and motors. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $83.74 (+0.5%), stop $73.40 (−13.5%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.74 (+0.5% upside). Target $83.74 (+0.5%), stop $73.40 (−13.5%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $73.40.

What are the risks of investing in IR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: revenues outside the United States (58.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source iron castings and motors; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is IR overvalued or undervalued?

Ingersoll Rand Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.4 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about IR?

23 analysts cover IR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $96.

What does Ingersoll Rand Inc. do?Ingersoll Rand designs, manufactures and markets compressors, vacuum and blower products, and precision fluid-handling...

Ingersoll Rand designs, manufactures and markets compressors, vacuum and blower products, and precision fluid-handling equipment across two segments — Industrial Technologies and Services, and Precision and Science Technologies. Aftermarket parts, consumables, and services represented 36.5% of 2025 total revenue from an installed base served by over 60 manufacturing facilities and 21,000 employees worldwide. No single customer exceeded 10% of 2025 consolidated revenues.

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