Value
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 8.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.78
IR · Why this verdict
Why Ingersoll Rand (IR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ingersoll Rand presents an unusually strong balance sheet — perfect financial health score and free cash flow conversion of 176% — but the current price geometry offers only 9.3% upside against 11.3% potential downside, and the stock remains in a confirmed near-term downtrend, making the setup unfavorable until asymmetry improves.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business achieves a perfect 9-out-of-9 financial health score and converts 176% of net income into free cash flow, both marks that sit well above typical industrial-sector peers and indicate a financially durable franchise. Quality breakdown | The financial health score remains at 8 or above and free cash flow conversion stays above 130% over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh balance-sheet scores can lag fundamental deterioration; the forward multiple of 20x prices in continued execution, and any deceleration in margins or cash generation would be punished at this valuation. | ||
At current prices the stock offers approximately 9.3% upside against 11.3% potential downside, a ratio of roughly 0.8-to-1 that is well short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 needed to justify a new position. Engine gate (failed) | The reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 through either a price pullback or meaningful upward revision in analyst targets within the next 6 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry can improve quickly if a positive earnings catalyst compresses the downside estimate; the current setup is a timing issue, not a fundamental impairment of the underlying business. | ||
While the 200-day moving average slope is still declining, the MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, suggesting early accumulation that may precede a broader technical recovery. Momentum breakdown | The stock crosses back above the 200-day moving average on rising volume and sustains the breakout for at least 3 consecutive weeks. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe moving average slope is still declining at -1.6% over 30 days in a confirmed downtrend; an improving MACD alone has not confirmed a trend change and price must follow before the recovery is real. | ||
With 58% of revenues generated outside the United States and single-source dependencies for key iron castings and motors, the business carries meaningful concentration risk that could impair earnings if either exposure is disrupted. Bear case | International revenue share stays below 62% and no single-source supply disruption is disclosed in upcoming 10-K filings. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGeographic diversification also acts as a growth driver in international markets; long-standing single-source supplier relationships often embed switching costs that reduce — rather than increase — actual procurement risk over time. | ||
The business achieves a perfect 9-out-of-9 financial health score and converts 176% of net income into free cash flow, both marks that sit well above typical industrial-sector peers and indicate a financially durable franchise.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The financial health score remains at 8 or above and free cash flow conversion stays above 130% over the next four reported quarters.
CounterHigh balance-sheet scores can lag fundamental deterioration; the forward multiple of 20x prices in continued execution, and any deceleration in margins or cash generation would be punished at this valuation.
At current prices the stock offers approximately 9.3% upside against 11.3% potential downside, a ratio of roughly 0.8-to-1 that is well short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 needed to justify a new position.
Tripped→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 through either a price pullback or meaningful upward revision in analyst targets within the next 6 months.
CounterThe asymmetry can improve quickly if a positive earnings catalyst compresses the downside estimate; the current setup is a timing issue, not a fundamental impairment of the underlying business.
While the 200-day moving average slope is still declining, the MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, suggesting early accumulation that may precede a broader technical recovery.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock crosses back above the 200-day moving average on rising volume and sustains the breakout for at least 3 consecutive weeks.
CounterThe moving average slope is still declining at -1.6% over 30 days in a confirmed downtrend; an improving MACD alone has not confirmed a trend change and price must follow before the recovery is real.
With 58% of revenues generated outside the United States and single-source dependencies for key iron castings and motors, the business carries meaningful concentration risk that could impair earnings if either exposure is disrupted.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue share stays below 62% and no single-source supply disruption is disclosed in upcoming 10-K filings.
CounterGeographic diversification also acts as a growth driver in international markets; long-standing single-source supplier relationships often embed switching costs that reduce — rather than increase — actual procurement risk over time.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 6.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 7.8 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $1,000,091 (0.003% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 4.9 |
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 6.1 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $40
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.1% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.41
Upside
-3.5%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Insider at 7.3; weakest: Momentum at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Sentiment at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.1; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Peer rank at 4.6, and Growth at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.41 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Balance Sheet Quality
Trip ifFinancial health score falls below 7 for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Unfavorable Reward Risk GeometryTripped
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 following a price decline of more than 8% from current levels.
- P3Early Signs Of Momentum Recovery
Trip ifRSI closes below 40 for 3 or more consecutive weeks, confirming the momentum recovery has stalled.
- P4Geographic And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifInternational revenue falls below 50% of total in an annual filing, materially reducing geographic concentration.