Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 9.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.65
IR · Why this verdict
Why Ingersoll Rand (IR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ingersoll Rand presents an unusually strong balance sheet — perfect financial health score and free cash flow conversion of 176% — but the current price geometry offers only 9.3% upside against 11.3% potential downside, and the stock remains in a confirmed near-term downtrend, making the setup unfavorable until asymmetry improves.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business achieves a perfect 9-out-of-9 financial health score and converts 176% of net income into free cash flow, both marks that sit well above typical industrial-sector peers and indicate a financially durable franchise. Quality breakdown | The financial health score remains at 8 or above and free cash flow conversion stays above 130% over the next four reported quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh balance-sheet scores can lag fundamental deterioration; the forward multiple of 20x prices in continued execution, and any deceleration in margins or cash generation would be punished at this valuation. | ||
At current prices the stock offers approximately 9.3% upside against 11.3% potential downside, a ratio of roughly 0.8-to-1 that is well short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 needed to justify a new position. Engine gate (failed) | The reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 through either a price pullback or meaningful upward revision in analyst targets within the next 6 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe asymmetry can improve quickly if a positive earnings catalyst compresses the downside estimate; the current setup is a timing issue, not a fundamental impairment of the underlying business. | ||
While the 200-day moving average slope is still declining, the MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, suggesting early accumulation that may precede a broader technical recovery. Momentum breakdown | The stock crosses back above the 200-day moving average on rising volume and sustains the breakout for at least 3 consecutive weeks. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe moving average slope is still declining at -1.6% over 30 days in a confirmed downtrend; an improving MACD alone has not confirmed a trend change and price must follow before the recovery is real. | ||
With 58% of revenues generated outside the United States and single-source dependencies for key iron castings and motors, the business carries meaningful concentration risk that could impair earnings if either exposure is disrupted. Bear case | International revenue share stays below 62% and no single-source supply disruption is disclosed in upcoming 10-K filings. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGeographic diversification also acts as a growth driver in international markets; long-standing single-source supplier relationships often embed switching costs that reduce — rather than increase — actual procurement risk over time. | ||
The business achieves a perfect 9-out-of-9 financial health score and converts 176% of net income into free cash flow, both marks that sit well above typical industrial-sector peers and indicate a financially durable franchise.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The financial health score remains at 8 or above and free cash flow conversion stays above 130% over the next four reported quarters.
CounterHigh balance-sheet scores can lag fundamental deterioration; the forward multiple of 20x prices in continued execution, and any deceleration in margins or cash generation would be punished at this valuation.
At current prices the stock offers approximately 9.3% upside against 11.3% potential downside, a ratio of roughly 0.8-to-1 that is well short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 needed to justify a new position.
↑ImprovingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 through either a price pullback or meaningful upward revision in analyst targets within the next 6 months.
CounterThe asymmetry can improve quickly if a positive earnings catalyst compresses the downside estimate; the current setup is a timing issue, not a fundamental impairment of the underlying business.
While the 200-day moving average slope is still declining, the MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, suggesting early accumulation that may precede a broader technical recovery.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock crosses back above the 200-day moving average on rising volume and sustains the breakout for at least 3 consecutive weeks.
CounterThe moving average slope is still declining at -1.6% over 30 days in a confirmed downtrend; an improving MACD alone has not confirmed a trend change and price must follow before the recovery is real.
With 58% of revenues generated outside the United States and single-source dependencies for key iron castings and motors, the business carries meaningful concentration risk that could impair earnings if either exposure is disrupted.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue share stays below 62% and no single-source supply disruption is disclosed in upcoming 10-K filings.
CounterGeographic diversification also acts as a growth driver in international markets; long-standing single-source supplier relationships often embed switching costs that reduce — rather than increase — actual procurement risk over time.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 4.5 |
| Op margin | 7.5 |
| Net margin | 8.6 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 73% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 5.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
Insider
4.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.75
- ▸Above max pain $40
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.8 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.1% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:100d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.6>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.22
Upside
-3.2%
Downside
14.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.22 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.6, Growth at 7.0, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Insider at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Balance Sheet Quality
Trip ifFinancial health score falls below 7 for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Unfavorable Reward Risk Geometry
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 following a price decline of more than 8% from current levels.
- P3Early Signs Of Momentum Recovery
Trip ifRSI closes below 40 for 3 or more consecutive weeks, confirming the momentum recovery has stalled.
- P4Geographic And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifInternational revenue falls below 50% of total in an annual filing, materially reducing geographic concentration.