Cummins trades just below its analyst consensus target with essentially no remaining upside, has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters by an average of roughly 16%, and carries two high-severity concentration risks — a combination that makes the current setup unfavorable for new or increased positions despite technical support above the 200-day moving average.
Thesis pillars
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Price At Target No Upside↑Improving
- High Severity Concentration Risks↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026· older than 90 days
Cummins Inc. (CMI) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $500.69 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials.
Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26% of 2025 sales), Components (25%), Distribution (30%), Power Systems (18%), and Accelera — served via 640 distributor locations and over 13,000 certified dealer... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $500.69 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — Cummins Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cummins Inc (CMI) Shares Fall 3.5% -- GF Value Says Still Overva - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Cummins: Share Price Appears Fair After The Drop, But No Margin Of Safety - Hold - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Cummins (CMI) Stock May Be 34% Undervalued On Cash Flow - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Data Center Deal Might Change The Case For Investing In Cummins Stock (CMI) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Hyperscaler Supply Deal Could Be A Game Changer For Cummins Stock (CMI) - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 27, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:49:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicChina-based investees10-K Item 1A: 'more than 50 percent of these earnings from our China-based investees'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source parts and raw materials10-K Item 1A: 'We single source a number of parts and raw materials critical to our business operations'
- MEDIUMCustomerfew large on-highway truck OEM customers10-K Item 1A: 'We recognize significant sales of engines and components to a few large on-highway truck OEM customers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $500.69 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $482.87. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $637.80 (+27.4% upside). Prior stop was $482.87. Stop-loss: $482.87.
Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
Cummins Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.6 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts rate CMI, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 19 analysts publish price targets averaging $709.
What does Cummins Inc. do?Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26%...
Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26% of 2025 sales), Components (25%), Distribution (30%), Power Systems (18%), and Accelera — served via 640 distributor locations and over 13,000 certified dealer outlets in approximately 190 countries. Revenue flows from OEM and aftermarket sales, with China-based joint ventures contributing nearly half of 2025 equity income from investees. A $1.9 billion EPA/CARB emission settlement was paid in 2024.