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Cummins Inc. (CMI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $672.52 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China JVs.

Cummins is a global power solutions manufacturer with Engine, Components, Distribution, Power Systems, and Accelera segments, selling diesel and natural gas powertrains to OEMs, distributors, and dealers across ~190 countries via a network of ~640 distributor locations and... Read more

$672.52+3.8% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#44 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.81%
IncomeYield1.18%(5y avg 2.33%)Payout40.62%sustainable
Stop $631.37Target $703.72(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$721.44+7.3%19 analysts
$703.72our TP
$672.52price
$721.44mean
$520
$845

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $672.52 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China JVs. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Cummins Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China JVs
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.2
P/E (Fwd)20.4
Mkt Cap$93.5B
EV/EBITDA19.9
Profit Mgn7.9%
ROE22.0%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta1.27
Dividend1.18%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV45%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina JVs
    10-K Item 1A: 'nearly fifty percent of our equity, royalty and interest income from investees was from three of our 50 percent-owned joint ventures in China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.2

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.7
Value Rank
4.7
Quality Rank
5.9
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $633.53Resistance $718.08

Price Targets

$631
$704
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.2% upside)
! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $672.52 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China JVs. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $631.37. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the CMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $703.72 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $631.37. Stop-loss: $631.37.

What are the risks of investing in CMI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China JVs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Is CMI overvalued or undervalued?

Cummins Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.2 (forward 20.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CMI?

28 analysts cover CMI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $721.

What does Cummins Inc. do?Cummins is a global power solutions manufacturer with Engine, Components, Distribution, Power Systems, and Accelera...

Cummins is a global power solutions manufacturer with Engine, Components, Distribution, Power Systems, and Accelera segments, selling diesel and natural gas powertrains to OEMs, distributors, and dealers across ~190 countries via a network of ~640 distributor locations and 13,000+ dealer locations. Equity income from China JVs is a significant P&L contributor.

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