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GNRCGenerac Holdlings Inc.Sell5.8·$208.14
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A growth-oriented industrial name with a perfect Piotroski financial health score is held back by a negative risk/reward at current prices — the stock sits above its resistance target with roughly 12% of defined downside against 6.7% of stated upside — combined with an exceptionally elevated put/call ratio and two recent consecutive earnings misses that introduce meaningful uncertainty about near-term delivery.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Piotroski But Weak Overall Quality→Stable
  • Negative Risk Reward Above Target→Stable
  • Elevated Options Bearish Positioning↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Generac Holdlings Inc. (GNRC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $208.14: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Generac Holdings designs and manufactures power generation equipment, energy storage systems, energy management devices, and related products for residential, commercial, industrial, data center, and telecommunications markets in North America and internationally. Products are... Read more

$208.14+27.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#20 of 55 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.47%
Stop $193.57Target $264.54(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$293.94+41.2%16 analysts
$264.54our TP
$208.14price
$293.94mean
$375

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $208.14: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Generac Holdlings Inc.

About Generac Holdlings Inc.

Generac Holdings serves residential and commercial/industrial end markets with single-engine outputs ranging from 800W to 3,250kW, spanning home standby generators, portable generators, battery energy storage systems, solar microinverters, and energy management devices. The company holds one of the leading positions in the North American market for power equipment and entered the large megawatt data center backup power market with a new diesel generator lineup in 2025. Approximately 6.75% of the addressable U.S. market of single-family detached owner-occupied homes valued above $175,000 have home standby generators installed, indicating significant remaining penetration potential.

Generac earns revenue through two broad categories—residential products marketed to homeowners through dealers, distributors, and retail partners, and commercial and industrial products sold to telecom carriers, rental companies, contractors, and data center customers through industrial distributors and direct national accounts. The company reorganized its reporting from Domestic and International segments to Residential and C&I segments effective March 31, 2026. Raw materials include steel, copper, aluminum, batteries, and advanced electronic components sourced from suppliers without long-term supply contracts in place; certain products and components rely on single-source suppliers, including large engines used in data center backup applications. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, accelerated the phase-out of tax incentives for the solar market, which may weigh on near-term residential energy storage demand while the company believes long-term mega-trends remain intact.

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The supply chain lens carries specific filing disclosure: the company names outside manufacturers for certain clean energy products or components and large engines used in data center backup applications, and states it single-sources certain types of parts in product designs. If any single-source engine or clean-energy-component supplier reduces supply, Generac may be unable to deliver sufficient quantities for the data center market—which the 10-K describes as significantly supply-constrained—potentially causing lost sales and reputational harm in a high-stakes new market.

See also: Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

From Generac Holdlings Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 27%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.5
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$11.7B
EV/EBITDA20.2
Profit Mgn5.8%
ROE9.5%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta1.91
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.66bearish
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$130-37.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend upon a small number of outside manufacturers and component suppliers, as well as other single-source suppliers, for certain products and components'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.1
52w Position
4.0
Support Resistance
4.1
GatesMomentum 6.6>=5.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $173.25Resistance $231.89

Price Targets

$194
$265
A.Upside+27.1%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts28
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$294

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GNRC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $208.14: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $193.57. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GNRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $264.54 (+27.1% upside). Prior stop was $193.57. Stop-loss: $193.57.

What are the risks of investing in GNRC?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is GNRC overvalued or undervalued?

Generac Holdlings Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.5 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GNRC?

28 analysts cover GNRC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $294.

What does Generac Holdlings Inc. do?Generac Holdings designs and manufactures power generation equipment, energy storage systems, energy management...

Generac Holdings designs and manufactures power generation equipment, energy storage systems, energy management devices, and related products for residential, commercial, industrial, data center, and telecommunications markets in North America and internationally. Products are sold through independent distributors, dealers, retailers, and direct national accounts.

Related stocks: AMSC (American Superconductor Corpora) · GTES (Gates Industrial Corporation Lt) · EPAC (Enerpac Tool Group Corp.) · HLIO (Helios Technologies, Inc.) · WTS (Watts Water Technologies, Inc.)
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