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GNRCGenerac Holdlings Inc.Buy Wait5.7·$202.01-4.03%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A growth-oriented industrial name with a perfect Piotroski financial health score is held back by a negative risk/reward at current prices — the stock sits above its resistance target with roughly 12% of defined downside against 6.7% of stated upside — combined with an exceptionally elevated put/call ratio and two recent consecutive earnings misses that introduce meaningful uncertainty about near-term delivery.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Piotroski But Weak Overall QualityStable
  • Negative Risk Reward Above TargetStable
  • Elevated Options Bearish PositioningDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Generac Holdlings Inc. (GNRC) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Earnings in 3 days (2026-07-29). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $191.91. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $202.01. Engine's entry $191.91 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers.

Generac Holdings designs and manufactures power generation equipment, energy storage systems, energy management devices, and related products for residential, commercial, industrial, data center, and telecommunications markets in North America and internationally. Products are... Read more

$202.01+30.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#28 of 58 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.97%
Entry $191.91(5% below current)Stop $178.48Target $264.38(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$293.75+45.4%16 analysts
$264.38our TP
$202.01price
$293.75mean
$338

Wait for pullback to $191.91. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $202.01. Engine's entry $191.91 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Generac Holdlings Inc.

About Generac Holdlings Inc.

Generac Holdings serves residential and commercial/industrial end markets with single-engine outputs ranging from 800W to 3,250kW, spanning home standby generators, portable generators, battery energy storage systems, solar microinverters, and energy management devices. The company holds one of the leading positions in the North American market for power equipment and entered the large megawatt data center backup power market with a new diesel generator lineup in 2025. Approximately 6.75% of the addressable U.S. market of single-family detached owner-occupied homes valued above $175,000 have home standby generators installed, indicating significant remaining penetration potential.

Generac earns revenue through two broad categories—residential products marketed to homeowners through dealers, distributors, and retail partners, and commercial and industrial products sold to telecom carriers, rental companies, contractors, and data center customers through industrial distributors and direct national accounts. The company reorganized its reporting from Domestic and International segments to Residential and C&I segments effective March 31, 2026. Raw materials include steel, copper, aluminum, batteries, and advanced electronic components sourced from suppliers without long-term supply contracts in place; certain products and components rely on single-source suppliers, including large engines used in data center backup applications. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, accelerated the phase-out of tax incentives for the solar market, which may weigh on near-term residential energy storage demand while the company believes long-term mega-trends remain intact.

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The supply chain lens carries specific filing disclosure: the company names outside manufacturers for certain clean energy products or components and large engines used in data center backup applications, and states it single-sources certain types of parts in product designs. If any single-source engine or clean-energy-component supplier reduces supply, Generac may be unable to deliver sufficient quantities for the data center market—which the 10-K describes as significantly supply-constrained—potentially causing lost sales and reputational harm in a high-stakes new market.

See also: Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

From Generac Holdlings Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)63.3
P/E (Fwd)17.9
Mkt Cap$11.9B
EV/EBITDA24.7
Profit Mgn4.4%
ROE7.4%
Rev Growth12.4%
Beta1.90
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV99%elevated
Max Pain$140-30.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend upon a small number of outside manufacturers and component suppliers, as well as other single-source suppliers, for certain products and components'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 7, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dA.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
7 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $197.51Resistance $295.41

Price Targets

$178
$192
$264
A.Upside+30.9%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GNRC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $191.91. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $202.01. Engine's entry $191.91 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $264.38 (+30.9%), stop $178.48 (−13.2%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GNRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $264.38 (+30.9% upside). Target $264.38 (+30.9%), stop $178.48 (−13.2%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Stop-loss: $178.48.

What are the risks of investing in GNRC?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers.

Is GNRC overvalued or undervalued?

Generac Holdlings Inc. trades at a P/E of 63.3 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GNRC?

27 analysts cover GNRC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $294.

What does Generac Holdlings Inc. do?Generac Holdings designs and manufactures power generation equipment, energy storage systems, energy management...

Generac Holdings designs and manufactures power generation equipment, energy storage systems, energy management devices, and related products for residential, commercial, industrial, data center, and telecommunications markets in North America and internationally. Products are sold through independent distributors, dealers, retailers, and direct national accounts.

Related stocks: AMSC (American Superconductor Corpora) · EPAC (Enerpac Tool Group Corp.) · WTS (Watts Water Technologies, Inc.) · CXT (Crane NXT, Co.) · BW (Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, I)
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