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IPInternational Paper CompanySell5.0·$36.15-0.66%
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International Paper Company (IP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.15: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

International Paper produces renewable fiber-based packaging — containerboard, corrugated boxes, bulk bins, and specialty packaging — through two segments: Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA, with 15 U.S. mills, 159 U.S. converting plants, 14... Read more

$36.15+2.5% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#15 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.88%
IncomeYield5.08%(5y avg 4.50%)Payout158.12%at-risk
Stop $33.62Target $37.05(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$39.36+8.9%11 analysts
$37.05our TP
$36.15price
$39.36mean
$32
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.15: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About International Paper Company

About International Paper Company

International Paper generated $23.63 billion in net sales in 2025 with $1.7 billion in cash from operating activities, operating across two segments — Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA — with approximately 62,602 employees globally. The company completed the $1.5 billion sale of its Global Cellulose Fibers business to American Industrial Partners in January 2026, returned $977 million to shareholders via dividends in 2025, and announced a plan to separate into two independent publicly traded companies targeting completion near end of 2026 or early 2027.

International Paper earns revenue from containerboard, corrugated boxes, bulk bins, and specialty packaging sold to end users and converters across food and beverage, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, personal care, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods industries, through direct sales as well as agents, resellers, and distributors. Key input costs include virgin wood fiber, recycled fiber, caustic soda, starch, adhesives, natural gas, electricity, biomass, and fuel oil — all subject to commodity price cycles. In the U.S., the company operates 15 packaging mills, 159 converting plants, and 15 recycling plants; internationally, operations include 14 containerboard mills, 159 converting plants, and 20 recycling plants across Europe, North Africa, and Latin America. Capital expenditures were approximately $1.9 billion in 2025 and are planned at $2.0–2.1 billion in 2026. Approximately 8,622 U.S. employees are represented by the United Steelworkers union under master agreements covering mills and converting facilities.

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The 10-K notes that substantially all of International Paper's businesses have experienced, and are expected to continue to experience, cycles in industry capacity, customer demand, and general economic conditions — with demand for packaging products in industrialized countries showing significant correlation with economic growth. Energy costs, principally natural gas, electricity, and fuel oil, have fluctuated dramatically and could continue to do so. The planned EMEA separation adds execution risk: the 10-K identifies non-completion of the proposed separation on the contemplated timeline or at all as a named risk factor.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

From International Paper Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — International Paper Company

Generated 2026-06-17T09:16:55Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-5.3% upside)
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$19.3B
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn-13.8%
ROE-16.0%
Rev Growth13.4%
Beta0.93
Dividend5.08%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$80+121.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.2
Support Resistance
1.8
52w Position
3.5

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.2
Operating Margin
1.5
Gross Margin
1.9
Current Ratio
4.6
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MDividend: 508.0%
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $28.83Resistance $37.81

Price Targets

$34
$37
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.15: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $33.62. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.05 (+2.5% upside). Prior stop was $33.62. Stop-loss: $33.62.

What are the risks of investing in IP?

Target reached (-5.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is IP overvalued or undervalued?

International Paper Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IP?

21 analysts cover IP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $39.

What does International Paper Company do?International Paper produces renewable fiber-based packaging — containerboard, corrugated boxes, bulk bins, and...

International Paper produces renewable fiber-based packaging — containerboard, corrugated boxes, bulk bins, and specialty packaging — through two segments: Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA, with 15 U.S. mills, 159 U.S. converting plants, 14 international containerboard mills, and 159 international converting plants. Net sales were $23.63 billion in 2025; the company plans to separate into two independent publicly traded companies targeting completion near end of 2026 or early 2027.

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