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International Paper Company (IP) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.40: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

International Paper is a global producer of renewable fiber-based packaging with $23.63B in 2025 net sales, operating 15 U.S. packaging mills, 14 international mills, and 318 converting/recycling plants across two segments: Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging... Read more

$30.40+12.7% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#13 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield10.63%
IncomeYield6.09%(5y avg 4.46%)Payout158.12%at-risk
Stop $28.57Target $34.25(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$39.36+29.5%11 analysts
$34.25our TP
$30.40price
$39.36mean
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.40: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — International Paper Company

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$16.1B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn-13.8%
ROE-16.0%
Rev Growth13.4%
Beta0.90
Dividend6.09%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$23-26.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.5
Macd
2.6
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.2
Operating Margin
1.5
Gross Margin
1.9
Current Ratio
4.6
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MDividend: 609.0%
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $29.45Resistance $37.20

Price Targets

$29
$34
A.Upside+12.7%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.40: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $28.57. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.25 (+12.7% upside). Prior stop was $28.57. Stop-loss: $28.57.

What are the risks of investing in IP?

Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is IP overvalued or undervalued?

International Paper Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IP?

21 analysts cover IP with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $39.

What does International Paper Company do?International Paper is a global producer of renewable fiber-based packaging with $23.63B in 2025 net sales, operating...

International Paper is a global producer of renewable fiber-based packaging with $23.63B in 2025 net sales, operating 15 U.S. packaging mills, 14 international mills, and 318 converting/recycling plants across two segments: Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA. It plans to separate into two independent publicly traded companies near end of 2026 or early 2027.

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