Samsara Inc. (IOT) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the IOT stock price target?

Take-profit $39.75 (+29.1% upside). Prior stop was $28.63.

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High ConfidenceUpdated 16 hr ago (May 20, 2026, 1:41 AM ET)

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $30.79: Concentration risk — Product: Connected Operations Platform subscriptions (98.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

Samsara provides an AI-powered Connected Operations Platform for physical industries (transportation, construction, logistics, utilities), connecting fleets, equipment, and frontline workers via IoT devices and cloud software. Revenue was $1,618.6M in FY2026, with approximately... Read more

$30.79+29.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#36 of 78 Software - Infrastructure

QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.59%

Stop $28.63Target $39.75(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.2:1

Analyst target$44.17+43.5%21 analysts

$39.75our TP

$30.79price

$44.17mean

$58

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $30.79: Concentration risk — Product: Connected Operations Platform subscriptions (98.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Samsara Inc.

Latest news

Cloudflare, ServiceNow, And Guardant Health Are Among Top 10 Large-Cap Losers Last Week (April 6-April 10): Are the Othe — benzinga Apr 12, 2026 negative

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Strong growth profile

Positive momentum

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: Connected Operations Platform subscriptions (98.0%)

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)36.1

Mkt Cap$17.8B

EV/EBITDA-399.1

Profit Mgn-0.6%

ROE-0.7%

Rev Growth28.3%

Beta1.28

DividendNone

Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral

IV93%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductConnected Operations Platform subscriptions98%
10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 98% of our revenue from subscriptions to our Connected Operations Platform'
MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of joint design manufacturers
10-K Item 1A: 'Our dependence on a limited number of joint design manufacturers and suppliers of manufacturing services and critical components within our supply chain for our Internet of Things'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.515%0.82

Quality4.315%0.64

Growth9.615%1.44

Momentum7.110%0.71

Sentiment7.410%0.74

Insider Activity3.410%0.34

Peer Rank3.410%0.34

Technical Setup3.25%0.16

Risk Profile3.35%0.17

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)5.74

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger

2.3

52w Position

2.7

Support Resistance

2.9

Gap

5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank

1.6

Quality Rank

2.4

Growth Rank

7.5

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 7.1>=5.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 16d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate

RSI

56 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.78Resistance $32.41

Price Targets

$29

$40

A.Upside+29.1%

A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts27

Consensus4.0/5

Avg Target$44

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-06-04 (16d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is IOT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $30.79: Concentration risk — Product: Connected Operations Platform subscriptions (98.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $28.63. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the IOT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.75 (+29.1% upside). Prior stop was $28.63. Stop-loss: $28.63.

What are the risks of investing in IOT?

Concentration risk — Product: Connected Operations Platform subscriptions (98.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is IOT overvalued or undervalued?

Samsara Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 36.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IOT?

27 analysts cover IOT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Samsara Inc. do?Samsara provides an AI-powered Connected Operations Platform for physical industries (transportation, construction,...