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IOTSamsara Inc.Sell5.6·$32.75-2.36%
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Samsara Inc. (IOT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. At $32.75, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.6): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: subscriptions to Connected Operations Platform (98.0%).

Samsara provides a cloud-based Connected Operations Platform connecting vehicles, equipment, and frontline workers via IoT devices and cloud software across construction, transportation, logistics, manufacturing, and government industries. The platform generated $1,618.6 million... Read more

$32.75+21.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#40 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.24%
Stop $30.36Target $39.69(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$44.11+34.7%19 analysts
$39.69our TP
$32.75price
$44.11mean
$30
$53

Sell if holding. At $32.75, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.6): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: subscriptions to Connected Operations Platform (98.0%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Samsara Inc.

About Samsara Inc.

Samsara's Connected Operations Platform generated $1,618.6 million in revenue for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026, up from $1,249.2 million the prior fiscal year, with approximately 98% derived from subscriptions in each of the past two fiscal years. The Data Platform processed over 25 trillion data points in fiscal year 2026. At January 31, 2026, Samsara counted 3,194 large customers — each contributing over $100,000 in ARR — representing approximately 61% of total ARR, and over 12,000 Core Customers accounting for approximately 85% of ARR.

Samsara earns subscription revenue priced on a per-asset, per-application basis across applications including AI Video-Based Safety, Telematics, Asset Tracking, Routing, Commercial Navigation, Connected Training, and Connected Forms, sold predominantly through a direct sales force. Larger customers require longer, less predictable sales cycles that involve considerable time and expense. Hardware — IoT devices including cameras, GPS trackers, and diagnostic sensors — is sold alongside subscriptions to connect offline assets; the company acknowledges dependence on a limited number of joint design manufacturers and critical component suppliers for these IoT devices. Net loss narrowed from $154.9 million in FY2025 to $9.1 million in FY2026, reflecting scale efficiencies on the fixed-cost subscription infrastructure. The platform integrates with over 350 third-party applications via the Samsara App Marketplace.

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The 10-K identifies dependence on a limited number of joint design manufacturers and IoT component suppliers as a material risk that could adversely affect the company's ability to sell subscriptions, impact margins, and weigh on results of operations. Unlike pure-software platforms, Samsara's model requires physical devices to connect offline vehicles and equipment to the cloud, meaning a manufacturing disruption or component shortage could delay new customer onboarding, harm margins, and limit subscription revenue growth.

See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure

From Samsara Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Sep 3, 202679d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 22%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: subscriptions to Connected Operations Platform (98.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.6): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)335.4
P/E (Fwd)37.5
Mkt Cap$19.5B
EV/EBITDA-14557.9
Profit Mgn3.3%
ROE4.4%
Rev Growth30.5%
Beta1.34
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV71%elevated
Max Pain$65+98.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductsubscriptions to Connected Operations Platform98%
    10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 98% of our revenue from subscriptions to our Connected Operations Platform'
  • MEDIUMSupplierIoT device joint design manufacturers and component suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our dependence on a limited number of joint design manufacturers and suppliers of manufacturing services and critical components within our supply chain for our Internet of Things'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.8
Quality Rank
3.1
Growth Rank
7.8
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $28.80Resistance $38.77

Price Targets

$30
$40
A.Upside+21.2%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-03 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IOT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $32.75, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.6): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: subscriptions to Connected Operations Platform (98.0%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $30.36. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IOT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.69 (+21.6% upside). Prior stop was $30.36. Stop-loss: $30.36.

What are the risks of investing in IOT?

Concentration risk — Product: subscriptions to Connected Operations Platform (98.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 4.6): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is IOT overvalued or undervalued?

Samsara Inc. trades at a P/E of 335.4 (forward 37.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IOT?

27 analysts cover IOT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Samsara Inc. do?Samsara provides a cloud-based Connected Operations Platform connecting vehicles, equipment, and frontline workers via...

Samsara provides a cloud-based Connected Operations Platform connecting vehicles, equipment, and frontline workers via IoT devices and cloud software across construction, transportation, logistics, manufacturing, and government industries. The platform generated $1,618.6 million in revenue for FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026), approximately 98% from per-asset, per-application subscriptions, serving over 12,000 Core Customers each with at least $25,000 in ARR.

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