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Samsara Inc. (IOT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Samsara operates a Connected Operations Platform linking IoT devices, AI, and data systems for physical operations industries including transportation, logistics, and construction. Revenue was $1,618.6M in FY2026 (~98% subscriptions); over 12,000 Core Customers each generating... Read more

$28.36+40.0% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#57 of 80 Software - Infrastructure
Stop $26.41Target $39.75(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$44.17+55.8%21 analysts
$39.75our TP
$28.36price
$44.17mean
$58

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 40%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)34.6
Mkt Cap$17.1B
EV/EBITDA-382.3
Profit Mgn-0.6%
ROE-0.7%
Rev Growth28.3%
Beta1.50
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$19-33.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of joint design manufacturers and suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'a limited number of joint design manufacturers and suppliers of manufacturing services and critical components within our supply chain for our Internet of Things'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.1
Rsi
3.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.6
Quality Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
8.0
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 35d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $25.10Resistance $32.74

Price Targets

$26
$40
A.Upside+40.2%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-04 (35d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IOT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $26.41. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the IOT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.75 (+40.0% upside). Prior stop was $26.41. Stop-loss: $26.41.

What are the risks of investing in IOT?

Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is IOT overvalued or undervalued?

Samsara Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 34.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IOT?

27 analysts cover IOT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Samsara Inc. do?Samsara operates a Connected Operations Platform linking IoT devices, AI, and data systems for physical operations...

Samsara operates a Connected Operations Platform linking IoT devices, AI, and data systems for physical operations industries including transportation, logistics, and construction. Revenue was $1,618.6M in FY2026 (~98% subscriptions); over 12,000 Core Customers each generating $25,000+ in ARR.

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