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Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Wait for pullback to $308.61. At $333.18 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $308.61 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Corpay is a global B2B payments company offering vehicle payment solutions (fuel cards, tolls via Sem Parar in Brazil with 7.5M tagholders), corporate payments (AP automation, virtual cards, cross-border FX in ~200 countries), and lodging payment solutions. Revenue is recurring... Read more

$333.18+9.9% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#4 of 78 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield9.34%
Entry $308.61(200-day MA)Stop $289.51Target $339.11(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$389.79+17.0%14 analysts
$339.11our TP
$333.18price
$389.79mean
$415

Wait for pullback to $308.61. At $333.18 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $308.61 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.79, quality 8.3/10, growth 9.4/10). Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Corpay, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.6
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$22.4B
EV/EBITDA12.0
Profit Mgn24.6%
ROE32.1%
Rev Growth25.4%
Beta0.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV45%normal
Max Pain$190-43.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $298.46Resistance $354.97

Price Targets

$290
$309
$339
A.Upside+1.8%
A.R:R0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.9% upside)
! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CPAY stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $308.61. At $333.18 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $308.61 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.79, quality 8.3/10, growth 9.4/10). Target $339.11 (+1.8%), stop $289.51 (−15.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CPAY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $339.11 (+9.9% upside). Target $339.11 (+1.8%), stop $289.51 (−15.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $289.51.

What are the risks of investing in CPAY?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.7): -1.5.

Is CPAY overvalued or undervalued?

Corpay, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.6 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CPAY?

22 analysts cover CPAY with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $390.

What does Corpay, Inc. do?Corpay is a global B2B payments company offering vehicle payment solutions (fuel cards, tolls via Sem Parar in Brazil...

Corpay is a global B2B payments company offering vehicle payment solutions (fuel cards, tolls via Sem Parar in Brazil with 7.5M tagholders), corporate payments (AP automation, virtual cards, cross-border FX in ~200 countries), and lodging payment solutions. Revenue is recurring and volume-driven through transaction fees and interchange; proprietary closed-loop networks provide competitive moats in key markets.

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