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InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Target reached (-19.8% upside); Market cap $0.97B below $1B minimum.

InnovAge Holding Corp. manages and provides a range of medical and ancillary services for seniors in need of care and support to live independently in its homes and communities. It manages its business through Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) approach. The... Read more

$7.46+13.2% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#19 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.75%
Stop $6.90Target $8.40(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$7.00-6.2%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Target reached (-19.8% upside); Market cap $0.97B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Market cap $0.97B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 113d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — InnovAge Holding Corp.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-19.8% upside)
Market cap $0.97B below $1B minimum
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -65.5%), Material insider selling (41 sells, 0.16% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)18.7
Mkt Cap$966M
EV/EBITDA39.9
Profit Mgn-1.2%
ROE-5.9%
Rev Growth15.5%
Beta0.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.6
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Value Rank
4.8
Growth Rank
7.8

Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.4
Rule Of 40
3.0
Current Ratio
4.1
Fcf Quality
5.2
Moat
6.5
Piotroski F
8.9
Gross Margin
9.7
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 6%, FCF yield 5.7%)Rule of 40: 21 (fail)Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 113d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $7.00Resistance $8.57

Price Targets

$7
$8
A.Upside+12.6%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.8% upside)
! Market cap $0.97B below $1B minimum
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -65.5%), Material insider selling (41 sells, 0.16% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-08 (113d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is INNV stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Target reached (-19.8% upside); Market cap $0.97B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Market cap $0.97B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $8.40 (+12.6%), stop $6.90 (−8.1%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the INNV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.40 (+13.2% upside). Target $8.40 (+12.6%), stop $6.90 (−8.1%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Stop-loss: $6.90.

What are the risks of investing in INNV?

Target reached (-19.8% upside); Market cap $0.97B below $1B minimum; Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -65.5%), Material insider selling (41 sells, 0.16% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is INNV overvalued or undervalued?

InnovAge Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about INNV?

9 analysts cover INNV with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $7.

What does InnovAge Holding Corp. do?InnovAge Holding Corp. manages and provides a range of medical and ancillary services for seniors in need of care and...

InnovAge Holding Corp. manages and provides a range of medical and ancillary services for seniors in need of care and support to live independently in its homes and communities. It manages its business through Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) approach. The company also offers in-home care services consisting of skilled, unskilled, and personal care; in-center services, such as primary care, physical therapy, occupational therapy, speech therapy, dental services, mental health and psychiatric services, meals, and activities; transportation to and from the PACE center and third-party medical appointments; and care management. It serves participants in the United States; and operates PACE centers in Colorado, California, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia. The company was formerly known as TCO Group Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to InnovAge Holding Corp. in January 2021. InnovAge Holding Corp. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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