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GRDNGuardian Pharmacy Services, IncHold5.3·$42.00+3.68%
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Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc (GRDN) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Guardian Pharmacy Services provides technology-enabled pharmacy dispensing and clinical services to long-term care facilities (LTCFs), operating 61 pharmacies serving ~205,000 residents in ~8,400 LTCFs across 38 states. More than two-thirds of annual revenue comes from assisted... Read more

$42.00-1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#17 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.61%
Stop $38.90Target $41.16(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$43.17+2.8%6 analysts
$41.16our TP
$42.00price
$43.17mean
$41
$45

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202662d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-0.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)48.2
P/E (Fwd)29.8
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA23.0
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE26.9%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.40bearish
IV76%elevated
Max Pain$30-28.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerALFs and BHFs
    10-K Item 1: 'More than two-thirds of our annual revenue for each of the past three years has been generated from residents of ALFs and BHFs'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.2
Growth Rank
1.5
Quality Rank
5.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.2
Bollinger
0.3
Gap
5.0
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
86 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $34.30Resistance $42.00

Price Targets

$39
$41
A.Upside-2.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRDN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $41.16 (-2.0%), stop $38.90 (−8.0%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GRDN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.16 (-1.6% upside). Target $41.16 (-2.0%), stop $38.90 (−8.0%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $38.90.

What are the risks of investing in GRDN?

Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-0.1% away).

Is GRDN overvalued or undervalued?

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc trades at a P/E of 48.2 (forward 29.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about GRDN?

12 analysts cover GRDN with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc do?Guardian Pharmacy Services provides technology-enabled pharmacy dispensing and clinical services to long-term care...

Guardian Pharmacy Services provides technology-enabled pharmacy dispensing and clinical services to long-term care facilities (LTCFs), operating 61 pharmacies serving ~205,000 residents in ~8,400 LTCFs across 38 states. More than two-thirds of annual revenue comes from assisted living facilities (ALFs) and behavioral health facilities (BHFs); the company claims ~13.0% national market share in the ALF/memory care LTCF pharmacy segment.

Related stocks: AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · MD (Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.)
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