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Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc (GRDN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs.

Guardian Pharmacy Services operates 61 pharmacies serving approximately 205,000 residents in 8,400 long-term care facilities across 38 states, focused on assisted living and behavioral health facilities. Over two-thirds of annual revenue comes from ALF and BHF residents; the... Read more

$36.72+10.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#13 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
Stop $34.49Target $40.53(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$40.83+11.2%6 analysts
$40.53our TP
$36.72price
$40.83mean
$44

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)48.2
P/E (Fwd)27.9
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA23.1
Profit Mgn3.4%
ROE26.6%
Rev Growth17.4%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C10.58bearish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$25-31.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerALFs and BHFs
    10-K Item 1A: 'More than two-thirds of our annual revenue for each of the past three years has been generated from residents of ALFs and BHFs, which are our target markets'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.8
Quality Rank
5.8
Growth Rank
7.3
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.56Resistance $41.36

Price Targets

$34
$41
A.Upside+10.4%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.9% upside)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRDN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.72 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $34.49. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GRDN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.53 (+10.8% upside). Prior stop was $34.49. Stop-loss: $34.49.

What are the risks of investing in GRDN?

Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is GRDN overvalued or undervalued?

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc trades at a P/E of 48.2 (forward 27.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GRDN?

11 analysts cover GRDN with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc do?Guardian Pharmacy Services operates 61 pharmacies serving approximately 205,000 residents in 8,400 long-term care...

Guardian Pharmacy Services operates 61 pharmacies serving approximately 205,000 residents in 8,400 long-term care facilities across 38 states, focused on assisted living and behavioral health facilities. Over two-thirds of annual revenue comes from ALF and BHF residents; the remainder primarily from skilled nursing facilities.

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