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Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc (GRDN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $36.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Guardian Pharmacy Services provides technology-enabled pharmacy dispensing and clinical services to long-term care facilities (LTCFs), operating 61 pharmacies serving ~205,000 residents in ~8,400 LTCFs across 38 states. More than two-thirds of annual revenue comes from assisted... Read more

$36.61+2.6% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#17 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.89%
Stop $34.05Target $37.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$43.17+17.9%6 analysts
$37.56our TP
$36.61price
$43.17mean
$45

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $36.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val5.3Qual5.8Grw6.4Mom4.8Sent7.0Ins3.0Peer2.2Tech5.6Risk5.65.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.6
P/E (Fwd)27.0
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA20.8
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE26.9%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerALFs and BHFs
    10-K Item 1: 'More than two-thirds of our annual revenue for each of the past three years has been generated from residents of ALFs and BHFs'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
1.6
Quality Rank
5.8
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.25Resistance $39.62

Price Targets

$34
$38
A.Upside+2.6%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.6% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRDN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $36.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $37.56 (+2.6%), stop $34.05 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GRDN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.56 (+2.6% upside). Target $37.56 (+2.6%), stop $34.05 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $34.05.

What are the risks of investing in GRDN?

Concentration risk — Customer: ALFs and BHFs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is GRDN overvalued or undervalued?

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc trades at a P/E of 43.6 (forward 27.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about GRDN?

12 analysts cover GRDN with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc do?Guardian Pharmacy Services provides technology-enabled pharmacy dispensing and clinical services to long-term care...

Guardian Pharmacy Services provides technology-enabled pharmacy dispensing and clinical services to long-term care facilities (LTCFs), operating 61 pharmacies serving ~205,000 residents in ~8,400 LTCFs across 38 states. More than two-thirds of annual revenue comes from assisted living facilities (ALFs) and behavioral health facilities (BHFs); the company claims ~13.0% national market share in the ALF/memory care LTCF pharmacy segment.

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