DaVita delivers consistent earnings beats and strong cash generation, but the stock has moved above analyst consensus targets and carries concentrated exposure to government reimbursement programs representing roughly two-thirds of revenue; the setup favors waiting for a pullback that restores a more favorable entry.
Thesis pillars
- Government Program Revenue Concentration↑Improving
- Earnings Beat Streak With Rising Estimates↑Improving
- Stock Above Analyst Consensus Target↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026· older than 90 days
DaVita Inc. (DVA) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. At $192.66, A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans (57.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: total government-based programs (68.0%).
DaVita provides kidney dialysis through 2,657 U.S. outpatient centers in 46 states and 585 international centers in 14 countries, serving approximately 200,500 U.S. and 94,500 international patients. U.S. dialysis represents approximately 86% of consolidated revenues; government... Read more
Sell if holding. At $192.66, A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans (57.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: total government-based programs (68.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — DaVita Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS DaVita beat Q3 estimates but a $62M China charge sent shares lower - 24/7 Wall St. — 24/7 Wall St. Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS DaVita’s (NYSE:DVA) Q3 2026: beats on revenue but stock drops - StockStory — StockStory Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS DaVita earnings: what to look for from DVA - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS DaVita earnings: what to look for from DVA - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Will DaVita's Q3 Earnings Reflect Improving Treatment Growth Trends? - TradingView — TradingView Oct 27, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:29Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerMedicare and Medicare Advantage plans57%10-K Item 1: 'Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans| 57 | %'
- HIGHCustomertotal government-based programs68%10-K Item 1: 'Total government-based programs| 68 | %'
- MEDIUMCustomercommercial payors32%10-K Item 1: 'The payments we receive from commercial payors generate nearly all of our profits and all of our non-hospital dialysis profits come from commercial payors'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $192.66, A.R:R 0.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans (57.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: total government-based programs (68.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $179.17. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $193.39 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $179.17. Stop-loss: $179.17.
Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans (57.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: total government-based programs (68.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
DaVita Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.6 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts rate DVA, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 7 analysts publish price targets averaging $222.
What does DaVita Inc. do?DaVita provides kidney dialysis through 2,657 U.S. outpatient centers in 46 states and 585 international centers in 14...
DaVita provides kidney dialysis through 2,657 U.S. outpatient centers in 46 states and 585 international centers in 14 countries, serving approximately 200,500 U.S. and 94,500 international patients. U.S. dialysis represents approximately 86% of consolidated revenues; government programs cover 68% of U.S. dialysis revenues, while commercial payors at 32% generate nearly all profits.