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DaVita Inc. (DVA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $151.98 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial payors.

DaVita is the largest U.S. dialysis provider treating ESKD patients at outpatient centers, with additional international operations in 585 centers across 14 countries and an integrated kidney care business serving 66,000 patients in risk-based arrangements. Revenue is driven by... Read more

$151.98+1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#9 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
Stop $144.47Target $153.03(resistance)A.R:R -2.3:1
Analyst target$151.71-0.2%7 analysts
$153.03our TP
$151.98price
$151.71mean
$126
$190

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $151.98 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial payors. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: commercial payors
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (5.0% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.0
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$10.0B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE64.8%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta0.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV64%elevated
Max Pain$95-37.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomercommercial payors
    10-K Item 1A: 'The payments we receive from commercial payors generate nearly all of our profit and all of our nonacute dialysis profits come from commercial payors'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -2.3=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $143.07Resistance $156.15

Price Targets

$144
$153
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R-2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $151.98 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: commercial payors. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $144.47. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $153.03 (+1.0% upside). Prior stop was $144.47. Stop-loss: $144.47.

What are the risks of investing in DVA?

Concentration risk — Customer: commercial payors; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away).

Is DVA overvalued or undervalued?

DaVita Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DVA?

14 analysts cover DVA with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $152.

What does DaVita Inc. do?DaVita is the largest U.S. dialysis provider treating ESKD patients at outpatient centers, with additional...

DaVita is the largest U.S. dialysis provider treating ESKD patients at outpatient centers, with additional international operations in 585 centers across 14 countries and an integrated kidney care business serving 66,000 patients in risk-based arrangements. Revenue is driven by dialysis treatment fees, with commercial insurers generating virtually all profit.

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