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HTLDHeartland Express, Inc.Sell4.2·$14.90-1.72%
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Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.90: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides short, medium, and long-haul truckload carrier and transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It primarily provides nationwide asset-based dry van truckload services for shippers;... Read more

$14.90+9.3% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#11 of 12 Trucking
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-4.25%
IncomeYield0.54%(5y avg 0.65%)Payout42.11%sustainable
Stop $13.86Target $16.28(resistance)A.R:R -3.6:1
Analyst target$12.80-14.1%5 analysts
$16.28our TP
$14.90price
$12.80mean
$10
$16

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.90: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-25.3% upside)
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)29.3
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA13.0
Profit Mgn-5.7%
ROE-5.6%
Rev Growth-19.7%
Beta1.30
Dividend0.54%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV86%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.4
Value Rank
4.2

Unprofitable operations — net margin -5.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
1.6
Moat
4.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.8
Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.3
Macd
1.8
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.2
Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -3.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.22Resistance $16.61

Price Targets

$14
$16
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R-3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-25.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HTLD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.90: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $13.86. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HTLD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.28 (+9.3% upside). Prior stop was $13.86. Stop-loss: $13.86.

What are the risks of investing in HTLD?

Target reached (-25.3% upside); Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is HTLD overvalued or undervalued?

Heartland Express, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 29.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HTLD?

11 analysts cover HTLD with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Heartland Express, Inc. do?Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides short, medium, and long-haul truckload carrier and...

Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides short, medium, and long-haul truckload carrier and transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It primarily provides nationwide asset-based dry van truckload services for shippers; cross-border freight and other transportation services; and temperature-controlled truckload services. The company offers its services under the Heartland Express, Millis Transfer, Smith Transport, and CFI brand names. It primarily serves retailers, manufacturers, and parcel carriers in the consumer goods, appliances, food products, and automotive industries. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa.

Related stocks: TFII (TFI International Inc.) · ARCB (ArcBest Corporation) · CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.) · MRTN (Marten Transport, Ltd.) · WERN (Werner Enterprises, Inc.)
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