Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
HTLD · Why this verdict
Why Heartland Express (HTLD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Heartland Express is a small-cap trucker with declining revenue (-9%), no moat and a quality score of 1.5 against a 4.0 floor; the stock is at its analyst target, so the data does not support holding for upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is poor, with no competitive moat, a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and a quality score of 1.5 below the 4.0 minimum. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score recovers to at least 5 and quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterTrucking is a cyclical, capital-intensive industry where depressed freight-cycle margins can mean-revert, so a trough-cycle quality score may understate recovery potential. | ||
Revenue is declining, down 9%, with quarterly revenue falling from $219.4M to $184.1M over the past six reported quarters. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stabilizes above $184M and grows toward the $176.9M-plus estimate trend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLatest revenue ($184.1M) has recovered from the $176.3M low in the prior quarter, so the decline may be bottoming. | ||
Upside to the $10.27 analyst target is only 0.5% against 8.8% downside, so reward-to-risk is about 0.05. Warnings | Analysts raise the target well above $10.27 or price pulls back to a better entry. | ↑Improving |
| CounterValuation looks inexpensive on price-to-sales (9.6/10 component) and a freight-cycle recovery could drive targets higher. | ||
Momentum is negative at 3.3/10, with falling on-balance volume, though the 200-day average is still rising. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA rising 200-day average suggests this is a pullback in an uptrend, not confirmed weakness. | ||
Options positioning is bearish with a put/call ratio of 4.00, and the latest quarter was a miss after 3 prior beats. Key risks | Put/call falls below 1.5 and the company beats in the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThree beats in the last four quarters (average surprise very high off a small base) suggest operations may be turning, and dividend safety scores 8.0/10. | ||
Business quality is poor, with no competitive moat, a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and a quality score of 1.5 below the 4.0 minimum.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score recovers to at least 5 and quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterTrucking is a cyclical, capital-intensive industry where depressed freight-cycle margins can mean-revert, so a trough-cycle quality score may understate recovery potential.
Revenue is declining, down 9%, with quarterly revenue falling from $219.4M to $184.1M over the past six reported quarters.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes above $184M and grows toward the $176.9M-plus estimate trend.
CounterLatest revenue ($184.1M) has recovered from the $176.3M low in the prior quarter, so the decline may be bottoming.
Upside to the $10.27 analyst target is only 0.5% against 8.8% downside, so reward-to-risk is about 0.05.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analysts raise the target well above $10.27 or price pulls back to a better entry.
CounterValuation looks inexpensive on price-to-sales (9.6/10 component) and a freight-cycle recovery could drive targets higher.
Momentum is negative at 3.3/10, with falling on-balance volume, though the 200-day average is still rising.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterA rising 200-day average suggests this is a pullback in an uptrend, not confirmed weakness.
Options positioning is bearish with a put/call ratio of 4.00, and the latest quarter was a miss after 3 prior beats.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call falls below 1.5 and the company beats in the next two quarters.
CounterThree beats in the last four quarters (average surprise very high off a small base) suggest operations may be turning, and dividend safety scores 8.0/10.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.3 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -9%
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 2.1 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-7.1%)
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.4 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.00
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -7.1% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.33
Upside
-2.8%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.35>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.6<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.1 and asymmetric R:R of -0.33.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Catalyst at 6.2, and Technical at 4.9; the weakest are Growth at 0.3, Quality at 1.5, and Peer rank at 2.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weak Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 from current 1.5 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Declining Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $170M from the latest $184.1M.
- P3Target Reached No Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $9.57 stop-loss level.
- P4Negative Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Bearish Options And Earnings Record
Trip ifPut/call ratio exceeds 5.0 from current 4.00.