Skip to main content

RXO, Inc. (RXO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.56: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

RXO is an asset-light truck brokerage and transportation platform, connecting shippers with carriers. It is the largest provider of outsourced last mile transportation for heavy goods in the US, served by 9,218 team members. Revenue comes from brokerage commissions, managed... Read more

$23.56-1.5% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#9 of 9 Trucking
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield1.87%
Stop $21.90Target $23.19(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$21.27-9.7%15 analysts
$23.19our TP
$23.56price
$21.27mean
$13
$26

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.56: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — RXO, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-18.7% upside)
Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -20.1%), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)43.4
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA44.3
Profit Mgn-1.8%
ROE-6.8%
Rev Growth-0.6%
Beta1.85
DividendNone
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.09bullish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$13-46.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerlargest customer11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from our largest customer represented approximately $653 million, or 11.4%, of total revenue'
  • LOWCustomertop five customers23%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top 20 customers in total and our top five customers in total accounted for approximately 37% and 23% of our revenue, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

6 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
4.8
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Revenue shrinking — -0.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.3
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
2.2
Value Rank
8.9

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
52w Position
9.9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Forward Pe
2.6
Analyst Target
3.0
Ps
9.9
Forward P/E: 43.4x
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.75Resistance $23.66

Price Targets

$22
$23
A.Upside-1.6%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -20.1%), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RXO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.56: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $21.90. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the RXO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.19 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $21.90. Stop-loss: $21.90.

What are the risks of investing in RXO?

Target reached (-18.7% upside); Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -20.1%), Negative free cash flow.

Is RXO overvalued or undervalued?

RXO, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 43.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RXO?

25 analysts cover RXO with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $21.

What does RXO, Inc. do?RXO is an asset-light truck brokerage and transportation platform, connecting shippers with carriers. It is the largest...

RXO is an asset-light truck brokerage and transportation platform, connecting shippers with carriers. It is the largest provider of outsourced last mile transportation for heavy goods in the US, served by 9,218 team members. Revenue comes from brokerage commissions, managed transportation fees, and last mile service fees from diverse industry verticals.

Related stocks: ARCB (ArcBest Corporation) · SNDR (Schneider National, Inc.) · TFII (TFI International Inc.) · XPO (XPO, Inc.) · WERN (Werner Enterprises, Inc.)