Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.34: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.06; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Hormel Foods is a global branded food company with $12B+ annual revenue selling products under SPAM, Planters, Skippy, Jennie-O, and 30+ other brands through Retail, Foodservice, and International segments. Revenue comes from branded food product sales to grocery retailers, mass... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.34: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.06; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart16%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to the Company's largest customer, Walmart, accounted for approximately 16 percent of consolidated gross sales less returns and allowances during fiscal 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertop five customers38%10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's top five customers collectively represented approximately 38 percent of consolidated gross sales less returns and allowances during fiscal 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-13Item 5.02MEDIUMSeparation Agreement finalized with former CFO Jacinth Smiley (departed Oct 26, 2025). Provides ~$2.775M in three cash payments plus long-term incentive plan eligibility in exchange for release of claims.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-02Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved Hormel Foods 2026 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan at Jan 27, 2026 Annual Meeting, succeeding the 2018 Plan. Routine compensatory arrangement; no officer departures.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -2.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.34: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.06; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $20.43. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $23.27 (+9.0% upside). Prior stop was $20.43. Stop-loss: $20.43.
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).
Hormel Foods Corporation trades at a P/E of 23.4 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover HRL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $27.
What does Hormel Foods Corporation do?Hormel Foods is a global branded food company with $12B+ annual revenue selling products under SPAM, Planters, Skippy,...
Hormel Foods is a global branded food company with $12B+ annual revenue selling products under SPAM, Planters, Skippy, Jennie-O, and 30+ other brands through Retail, Foodservice, and International segments. Revenue comes from branded food product sales to grocery retailers, mass merchandisers, foodservice operators, and international markets.