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Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Hormel Foods is a global branded food company with more than $12 billion in annual revenue, operating through Retail, Foodservice, and International segments with brands including SPAM, Planters, Skippy, Jennie-O, and Applegate. McLane Company (distributor to Walmart,... Read more

$20.47+12.0% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#25 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield3.40%
IncomeYield5.74%(5y avg 3.16%)Payout130.62%at-risk
Stop $19.28Target $22.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$26.25+28.2%8 analysts
$22.84our TP
$20.47price
$26.25mean
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Hormel Foods Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.9
P/E (Fwd)13.0
Mkt Cap$11.2B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn4.0%
ROE6.1%
Rev Growth-2.9%
Beta0.31
Dividend5.74%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.72neutral
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$10-51.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
1.0
Revenue Growth
1.8
Declining revenue: -3%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
2.2
Quality Rank
3.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roe
2.0
Net Margin
2.0
Roa
3.0
Moat
3.1
Operating Margin
4.4
Piotroski F
4.4
Fcf Quality
5.9
Current Ratio
9.0
Earnings quality warning: 78% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.70Resistance $22.02

Price Targets

$19
$23
A.Upside+11.6%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $19.28. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HRL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.84 (+12.0% upside). Prior stop was $19.28. Stop-loss: $19.28.

What are the risks of investing in HRL?

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is HRL overvalued or undervalued?

Hormel Foods Corporation trades at a P/E of 22.9 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HRL?

15 analysts cover HRL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $26.

What does Hormel Foods Corporation do?Hormel Foods is a global branded food company with more than $12 billion in annual revenue, operating through Retail,...

Hormel Foods is a global branded food company with more than $12 billion in annual revenue, operating through Retail, Foodservice, and International segments with brands including SPAM, Planters, Skippy, Jennie-O, and Applegate. McLane Company (distributor to Walmart, convenience stores, drug stores) accounted for approximately 27% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025. The top five customers collectively represented approximately 38% of consolidated gross sales.

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