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NOMDNomad Foods LimitedSell5.7·$11.80
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Nomad Foods is a packaged foods company trading at an exceptionally cheap forward P/E of 5.5x and PEG of 0.07, but its quality score of 3.5 falls below the minimum threshold, revenue is declining 6%, and it sits in a confirmed long-term downtrend below its 200-day moving average.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Decline Trend→Stable
  • Extreme Valuation Cheapness→Stable
  • Below Floor Quality Score→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Earnings in 6 days (2026-11-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.80: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 24.00; Below-average business quality.

Nomad Foods Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of frozen food products in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company offers frozen fish products, including fish fingers, coated fish, and natural fish; ready-to-cook... Read more

$11.80+0.8% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#13 of 34 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield7.78%
IncomeYield5.74%Payout66.24%
Stop $11.26Analyst target $11.90(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst consensus$13.68+15.9%5 analysts
$11.90Analyst target
$11.80price
$13.68mean
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.80: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 24.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-28
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (0.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.5
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA8.1
Profit Mgn4.2%
ROE4.9%
Rev Growth-3.1%
Beta0.73
Dividend5.74%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C24.00bearish
IV56%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.4
Roe
1.6
Net Margin
2.1
Roa
2.5
Moat
3.1
Current Ratio
4.3
Piotroski F
4.4
Operating Margin
5.6
Fcf Quality
7.2
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.25Resistance $12.23

Price Targets

$11
$12
A.Upside+0.8%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOMD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.80: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 24.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $11.26. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NOMD stock price target?

Analyst target: $11.90 (+0.8% upside). Prior stop was $11.26. Stop-loss: $11.26.

What are the risks of investing in NOMD?

Target reached (0.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is NOMD overvalued or undervalued?

Nomad Foods Limited trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NOMD?

11 analysts cover NOMD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Nomad Foods Limited do?Nomad Foods Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of frozen food...

Nomad Foods Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of frozen food products in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company offers frozen fish products, including fish fingers, coated fish, and natural fish; ready-to-cook vegetable products, such as peas and spinach; and frozen poultry and meat products, comprising nuggets, grills, and burgers. It also provides meal products that contain ready-to-cook noodles, pasta, lasagna, pancakes, and other ready-made meals; ice creams, such as in-home and out-of-home ice creams; and other products comprising soups, pizzas, bakery goods, and meat substitutes. The company sells its products to supermarkets and food retail chains primarily under the Birds Eye, Green Cuisine, iglo, Findus, Aunt Bessie's, Goodfella's, Frikom, Ledo, La Cocinera, and Belviva brand names. Nomad Foods Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Woking, the United Kingdom.

Related stocks: SENEB (Seneca Foods Corp.) · SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp.) · MAMA (Mama's Creations, Inc.) · FLO (Flowers Foods, Inc.) · SFD (Smithfield Foods, Inc.)
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